Thursday Night Football Free Play 12/22/11

Happy holidays! Our free play for our readers is the over in the Thursday night football game.  Over 40 in the Indy-Houston game.  

Monday Free Pick - Monday Night Football 12/12/11

On Monday Night Football, I like St. Louis with the +10.5 points.  St. Louis has been miserable scoring points this year, but Seattle -- giving double digit points -- yields some solid value.

Wednesday Free Pick - NCAAB 12/7/11

We're taking a rare favorite today -- but we like how the line has declined.  The researchers at Sports Insights like visitors in several sports, including college basketball.  We don't normally like favorites, but we like the betting trend on visitors, combined with line value: Temple -11.5.  

Thanksgiving Free Play - NFL

We have a free play in the NFL for Thanksgiving Day.  We're going to take the Under for the GB-Detroit game.  Watch the line (currently 56) and grab the Under if it looks like it is ticking down.  Otherwise, it appears like the total could rise a bit.  

Monday Free Pick - NFL 11/14/11

We like the huge points in tonight's Monday Night Football Game.  Try and grab the key +14 if you can, but we like the large point spread anyway in this big rivalry.  Green Bay has been the best in the NFL by far, but most teams this year have been showing that anything can happen!  Take the big points and the dog!  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 11/6/11

We like Indy today +7 -- and if you can still get it -- the +7.5 is even better.  The Colts may be winless -- but with everyone hating them, there is good value on Indy plus the points.  As our friends say, definitely an "ugly play!"  (but that's how we find value...)

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/30/11

Our free play of the weekend is in the NFL.  We like Miami plus the big points (+10/+10.5) over the Giants due to public sentiment being all over the Giants.  Miami is suffering through a winless season, and the media blitz swirling around the team has created some value.  Also, the Giants do not seem as strong as the ten-point spread ...  Take the Dolphins plus the points.

Note that this play agrees with the Sports Insights Marketwatch column.

Saturday Free Pick - CF 10/22/11

In a late game today, we are on Mich St +8 over Wisky.  We will continue to post free plays and other information at least once or twice a week.  Our readers particularly like information on Saturday / Sunday.  Thanks for visiting!

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 10/19/11

Based on the "Who Will Win...?" analysis -- we like the Texas Rangers in the World Series -- and especially in Game 1 of the World Series, where the Ranger are getting plus moneyline odds while visiting St. Louis.

Last year these factors correctly predicted that the San Francisco Giants would beat the Texas Rangers. So how do the Cardinals and Rangers fare in analyzing their championship characteristics?

Pitching Leadership

In baseball, top starting pitchers are a good indicator of success during baseball’s playoff series. In particular, the finalist with the better top of the rotation, measured by total wins by its top two pitchers, has won 70 percent of the World Series over the past 22 years (not including 1994, when there was no postseason). 

Full article at NY Times:

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/which-world-series-team-has-winning-traits/

Book's Blog:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/16/11

Our free pick today is on the St. Louis Rams +15.5.  I think there is a good chance that the Rams can stay within the huge point spread.  Green Bay is being hyped up as the NFL's best -- especially with the Patriots' loss a few weeks back...  Take the points!  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 10/9/11

On an NFL Sunday, we are going with a baseball pick.

We LOVE the value on the Cardinals today. We like the juicy moneyline odds on the visiting Card... Also, we like this analysis from the "Who Will Win" authors.

Overall, the factors lean to the Cardinals with their big team batting average. 

Saturday Free Pick - CF 10/8/11

It's a busy college football day -- so we will go with a play on perhaps the biggest game of the day: OK at Texas.  We like Texas at home getting +11 points.  The public does not -- so we are seeing some line value and line movement.

Please check out my book on some of the betting trends I look at:

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 10/6/11

In honor of the NHL season starting, our free play of the day is a hockey play.  We are taking Philly, visiting Boston, partly due to this nice bit of research over at SportsInsights.com.

SportsInsights updated its research on betting against the public in the NHL that uses it's betting percentages.

  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 10/4/11

Detroit surprisingly, to some, is up 2 games to 1 against the Yankees.  We like the Under in this game -- due to the pressure involved in this game.  In addition, the total has edged up to 10 -- so we also like the line value.   

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/2/11

Based on the betting percentages at SportsInsights (as well as their Marketwatch info) -- I agree with the Jaguars +7.5 pick.  I like the value; the fear of a Saints blowout gives me added comfort on this play!

Saturday Free Pick - CF 10/1/11

We are taking Florida +5 based on the home field advantage and the public being all over Alabama.  Some good value there today!  -cb

Thursday Free Pick - CF 9/29/11

We like the line movement and line value on PITT in the Thursday night college football game.  The betting percentages are strongly on So. Florida -- so we will take the other side.  We love getting the key number of 3 due to the public betting on the favorite.  Take Pitt and the 3.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/28/11

We like the Mets at home in this year-end MLB game.  There is nice line value for the Mets -- and there is extra motivation playing at home near the end of the season.  

Monday Free Pick - MNF 9/26/11

We like the Cowboys tonight -- IF you can grab the key number of -3.  Pay the extra juice and get the 3 if you can.  Above the -3, there's a bit less value...   

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/25/11

We like Sports Insights' Marketwatch play on Indy +11 today.  The line has definitely been "pumped up" with all of the media talk about how great Manning is...  We like the injury over-reaction value.  

Saturday Free Pick - CF 9/24/11

Our free play of the day is on Pittsburgh over Notre Dame.  This game is seeing the heaviest betting action -- and we like the line value combines with the home field advantage.  Pitt +7.5!

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 9/22/11

We are going with Toronto over LAA tonight.  This game is one of the heaviest-bet games and there is some line value because of the lopsided-betting action on the Angels.  Take Toronto as a home dog.

We also thought these power ratings were interesting:

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/21/11

We're going with a good contrarian value play in baseball today -- we're taking Oakland over Texas as a live home dog in a late game.  The betting percentages are huge on Texas, giving us a bit of line value.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/20/11

After a bit of a cold streak, we think the Phillies are going to break out in a big way in game two of their doubleheader.  After a huge year, this team is NOT going to go into the playoffs in a bad way.  Take the Phillies on the runline to reduce the steep odds.  

Monday Free Pick - MLB 9/19/11

We're going to take the Cubs and Coleman -- a nice home dog value.  The public likes the visiting Brewers, but the smart money is taking the Cubs.  We normally like more line value -- but we'll tail the sharps and take some decent odds at around +140.  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/18/11

We like the big points on Carolina -- combined with the public betting on Green Bay like this is a done deal.  We'll take Carolina in a truly "ugly" play!

Saturday Free Pick - CFB 9/17/11

Today is College Football Saturday, and our favorite pick of the day is  No. Ill +17.5 over Wisky.  This is one of the heaviest-bet games of the day - and we like the +17.5 points you can grab.  As mentioned in our book on college football betting trends, we like games with a lot of betting activity -- as well as home dogs -- with lopsided-betting activity.  

Thursday Free Play - CFB 9/15/11

Kershaw and the Dodgers got us back on the winning track.  Today, we are going with a college football play and taking Miss. St at home.  The betting percentage is greater than 80% on LSU so we will take the other side and take the home dog.  

Wednesday Free Play - MLB 9/14/11

Kershaw at -135 to -140 odds -- at home -- is a solid value to us.  Kershaw boasts a career ERA of 2.9 -- and this year his ERA is about 2.3!  Grab it before the odds worsen...    

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/13/11

Today, we like the OVER in the Detroit game.  Verlander is having a great year, and we don't want to get in the way of the Detroit steamroller, but we think there is value on the Over in today's game.  - jc

Monday Free Pick - NFL 9/12/11

We're going with the Dolphins today, because the public is all over the Patriots.  This matches up with Sports Insights' Marketwatch column; they like the Dolphins as well -- due to the divisional rivalry and the extreme betting percentages.    

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/11/11

How often can you get the mighty Colts + double-digit points?  BUT how often is Peyton Manning injured?  Oftentimes, we see the public and sportsbooks overreact to injuries.  Manning is certainly valuable -- but he is aging and even without Manning, the Colts are a very strong team.  Take the Colts and shop for the 10 points if you can get it.  

Saturday Free Pick - CF 9/10/11

We like Penn State over Alabama today.  We like the double-digit points for a home dog -- especially whenthe public is all over the favorite.  Some good value based on research in my book.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 9/9/11

We like the Phillies in tonight's game.  The Phils are one of the great teams in recent baseball history -- and getting them as slight favorites, although on the road, is a good value.  Halladay goes up against Marcum -- but we like the Phillies in this potential playoff preview.  Marcum has been red-hot lately, leading to some value on the Phillies!

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 9/8/11

We're taking the UNDER in the NFL season opener.  The line has edged upwards -- giving us some line value.  We like the under with the Green Bay defense -- and a Saints offense that hasn't been the same since their Super Bowl.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/7/11

We're taking the UNDER in the late game today: Seattle at Anaheim.  We like the under 9 (decent odd / key number in MLB) in this low-scoring season.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/6/11

We're going to take Colorado and Hammel today.  There is decent line value based on public sentiment on the visiting Arizona D-Backs.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 9/5/11

On Labor Day Monday, we are taking Seattle -- with the run line.  They are a huge underdog -- but in an expected relatively low-scoring game, we like the value of Seattle +1.5.  

SportsInsights Research - College Football

SportsInsights shows that contrarian methods can work as a standalone method to add value to handicapping.

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/ncaa-football/bet-against-public/2010-11-season-review.aspx

Sunday Free Pick - NCAAF 9/4/11

We're going with another large favorite and taking WVU in college football.  Grab the -23 we still see -- and look for the cover by this big program.  - cb & jc

Home Field Advantage

This article discusses home field advantage (although not ATS).  My research shows that in some sports, there is an edge for contrarian methods AND home field advantage (like in baseball and college football).  However, in some sports, visitors have the edge ATS (like in the NBA).

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/articles/2011/09/03/in_sports_there_really_is_no_place_like_home/?s_campaign=8315

It’s a big deal. Statistics show that Major League Baseball teams win 54 percent of their home games. The benefit is even higher in other sports, according to the economist who compiled the figures. In the NHL the home teams win 57 percent of the time, in the NFL it’s 58 percent, and in the NBA it’s 62 percent.

What’s so great about being at home?

Tobias J. Moskowitz, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, ran decades of numbers in an effort to explain the well-known phenomenon, and he concluded that the single biggest contributor is - get ready to start booing - officiating bias by umpires and referees, unintentional though it may be.

Saturday Free Pick - College Football 9/3/11

We're taking Illinois -21 at home over Arkansas State.  We normally do not like heavy favorites -- but in college football, there are some cases where big favorites can have value.  Grab the powerhouse minus the big points for the cover.  - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - NCAA Football 9/2/11

Early line movement showed that some sharps were on Baylor in Friday's game.  We'll take Baylor at home plus the +4.5 points at home.  We're tagging along with the sharps.  - jc

Thursday Free Pick - College Football 9/1/11

College football is here!  We're taking a big dog at home -- Memphis + 31 points over Miss. St.  Due to public sentiment, there is about 3 points of line value.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/31/11

We'll take Seattle in a late game today based on anti-public sentiment.  - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/30/11

We like the line value on Seattle tonight in a late game over the Angels.  Public sentiment is on LAA, and the line has moved 10 pts.  Take the Mariners and Vasquez at home with the plus odds and line movement/value. 

Monday Free Pick - NFL 8/29/11

We like the pts on the key-3 on the Jets.  Getting the Jets (shop for this line, it is available at the time of this writing) -- has some solid value as the Jets are the better team.  The Jets will look to build on this momentum as they prepare for the season to start.  - jc & cb    

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 8/28/11

We are looking for Drew Brees and the Saints to get closer to regular season form and cover the four points in today's game.  In preseason play, we often look for motivation -- and the Saints will want to bounce back after last week's loss.   - jc

Saturday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 8/27/11

We're looking for three wins in a row.  We're taking the UNDER in the Verlander game today.  You can still grab under 7.5 -- right above the pseudo-key number of 7 in totals for baseball.   - cb

Friday Free Pick - NFL 8/26/11

I am staying with the NFL and hoping to build upon yesterday's Eagles' win.  I like the Colts plus a load of pts -- at home in the preseason.  There has been talk of "panic" for the Manning-less Colts -- but injuries and over-reations -- could lead to value on the Colts.   Take the Colts + 9 pts; watch the line, it could even tick up...  - cb

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 8/25/11

Seven points is a lot in the pre-season -- but we are looking for the Eagles to bounce back after their loss last week.  The team has a bit of a mis-match vs. the Cleveland Browns -- and we look for a "statement" performance to get ready for a potential Super Bowl (or at least playoff-bound) season.  -cb  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/24/11

In a late game, I am taking the UNDER 7 in the LAA-Weaver game.  I like having the safety of the 7 landing spot as a push.  Weaver and Verlander are having a great year -- and I like the Under as the season starts winding down.  - jc

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/23/11

Verlander got us on the winning side again -- and at decent odds.  Today, we're going with "ugly" pitchers -- with a total of 11 runs (!!) -- and we are taking the Cubs at home.  In baseball, we like high totals with our typical underdog plays because it adds to uncertainty in games.  We also like the line value in this play.  - cb & jc 

Monday Free Pick - MLB 8/22/11

Today, we like Verlander -- who has been just remarkable this season.  The odds are not huge -- because Verlander is visiting TB.  However, with the Rays' weak offense -- Verlander will probably throw a great game.  It goes without saying that the pitching match-up is on Detroit's side.   - jc & cb

Sunday Free Pick - WNBA 8/21/11

We are looking for 3 wins in a row -- and taking big dog Washington in the WNBA.  Washington is getting +11.5 pts visiting Indiana.  - jc

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There are codes for the publisher's other titles on games & children's books.    

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 8/20/11

We are looking to continue on our winning ways -- with a play on KC & Paulino over the Red Sox & a seemingly ageless Wakefield.  We like the home field advantage -- as well as the fact that Wakefield IS aging!  The Red Sox have also been red hot -- so we like the value of public sentiment on the Red Sox.  Take the Royals.  - cb & jc 

Friday Free Pick - MLB 8/18/11

We're looking to get back on track with a play on Wandy Rodriguez and Houston at home.  Wandy has been pitching solidly, so we like the plus odds at home, vs. the Giants.  Vogelsong has been unconscious, with a 2.5 ERA -- but we like the odds and the potential reversion to the mean scenario.  - jc 

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 8/18/11

We are taking the developing Humber and the Chicago White Sox today.  Humber is developing into a very solid pitcher and may continue to surprise bettors.  Take Humber and the Sox at home.  - jc

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/16/11

I like getting David Price, TB pitching ace -- as a slight underdog (!!) -- visiting the Red Sox.  This is a case of a big edge on the mound -- but watered down by home edge for the Sox plus an anemic offense for the Rays.  With the Red Sox gaining headlines with their pennant chase (vs. the Yankees) -- there is also some value on taking a non-public team (and betting against the big name Sox).

Note that this is an early afternoon game.  - jc

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/16/11

We're going to take Seattle and Vargas, at home -- in a late game.  Early line movement showed signs of smart money and syndicates on Seattle - so we're grabbing that early  - jc

Monday Free Pick - MNF 8/15/11

Ahh: the joy of typing, "MNF!"

Monday Night Football is back -- even if it IS pre-season.  We are going with the Jets tonight.  After several years of being "close" to the Super Bowl, Jet coach Rex Ryan may want to push that last notch forward -- and get a kickstart in the pre-season.

In the pre-season, motivation often can drive results.  And taking the Jets, plus the pts +2.5 (although off of the key-3) has some value.  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 8/14/11

Today, we are going with Florida -- at home with Volstad on the mound.  Volstad has had a difficult year, with a 5.58 ERA and 5-8 record (and 1.51 WHIP) -- but his .319 BABIP tells us he might be a bit unlucky this year...  His numbers are still generally okay -- and we look for him to revert to his pre-2011 numbers a bit.  Thus, we like the value on Volstad, at home.  He's just 24 years old, so there is huge upside surprise potential.  

Saturday Free Pick - NFL 8/13/11

We're taking the Colts plus the 7 points in this pre-season NFL match-up.  While that the St. Louis Rams want to show signs of  a good team under new offensive coordinator, we like the big pts on the Colts.  Also, the Colts are a playoff contender for a reason (even if they have nothing to prove in this game).  - jc

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This book focuses on approaches for the NFL.
















This book is more general but talks about "investing" in the sports marketplace in general.  Good, contrarian, "sports investing" approaches that will help you improve your handicapping results.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 8/12/11

On Friday, we are going with Nolasco, at home for Florida, against SF.  Nolasco has had a good year -- and we like the plus odds, at home, for Florida as "live dogs."  jc & cb

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 8/11/11

The NFL is back -- even if it is the pre-season -- we will take Arizona + the 3.5 points in tonight's late game.  Key numbers can be an important factor in the NFL -- and we like getting that +3.5 pts in a pre-season game.   - jc

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/10/11

We are going with Minny at home today over the Red Sox.  If you are scanning the board, note that there are two early afternoon MLB games.  The Minn game is in the evening -- and we like the home field edge combined with another bet against a "public team" (Red Sox).  - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/9/11

LAA ace Haren is going up against the Yankees today.  Although the Yankees are at home, we like the line value (LAA moved from a very slight dog to a larger dog with line value of about +15 from the Pinnacle open).  We'll go with Haren and his 12-6 record and 0.97 WHIP.  We also like betting against the big public teams like the Yankees.   jc & cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB 8/8/11

Today, we are going with an ugly play -- but we are making use of the home bias -- and taking the O's at home against the CWS.  Line value also comes into play, so grab the value on the O's.  - jc

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 8/7/11

We are taking another home, value play -- with Florida grabbing some line value against the visiting Cards.  This game is seeing relatively heavy betting action, so watch the line -- and grab if the line looks to be reverting back towards Florida.  

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These betting tips and strategies can be used as a stand-along approach -- or can be used to add an additional edge to your own handicapping. 



There are short, focused, books on college football -- and professional football -- as well as an overview on the approaches in a more general (but longer) book.  The books have been popular best-sellers on Amazon within their category of Sports>Gambling.




With the football season nearing, the books have been selling again.  Good luck! 

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 8/6/11

We like the Bosox, at home, in this great rivalry match-up against the Yankees.  Some of the key factors for why we like the Sox:

• In a big rivalry, emotions can play a large role and make anything happy.
• The Red Sox at big odds, and
• at home, is typically a good value.  

- jc

Friday Free Pick - MLB 8/5/11

Today's value play is on the SF Giants at home.  The Phillies have been red-hot -- just like Worley -- creating value on the Giants and Sanchez.  We like the "plus" money line odds on the Giants -- as the "pendulum" is bound to swing the other way.  - jc & cb 

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 8/4/11

Yesterday, the line value play (based on public sentiment) got us back on the right track -- and we're going with a similar play today.  We're taking a pitcher we have gone with lately -- P Humber and the CWS at home -- against the "mighty" Yankees.  Most people like the Yankees, and the line has been bid up -- so grab the line value.  You may want to watch the line -- as steady betting on the Yankees could create even more value.  -jc

****

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Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/3/11

Today, we are going with Lyles on the mound for Houston at home.  Public opinion is strongly on the Reds with D. Willis on the mound -- and we like the line movement and live value due to everyone jumping on the Reds.  Take Houston at home and the nice + odds.    - jc

Tuesday Free Play - MLB 8/2/11

LET'S START A LONGGGGGGGG winning streak by taking MIL -125.  MIL is powerful at home -- and should take this with ease.  We like the home value.  -cb

Monday Free Play - Mets 8/1/11

I LOVE  the METS AT HOME TODAY....Mets look to recuperate after road losses to Nats.  Look for bounce-back and "revert-to-the-mean" value today.  - cb

Sunday's Free Play - MLB 7/31/11

We like LAA +121 today; we like the + money line odds.  Weaver at +odds is a nice value -- although of course, he's visiting Detroit and fellow ace, Verlander.  Still, we like the value.  - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/30/11

I always thought that P. Humber had a great pitcher's name -- and he's coming into his own at age 28.  He has a huge pitching match-up against the Red Sox today.  The CWS and Humber meet Jon Lester -- but at least the White Sox are at home.  We like the juicy +140 odds on a pitcher with a 1.1 WHIP and 3.27 ERA.  - cb

Friday Free Pick (3-in-a-row) 7/29/11

We are going for three in a row again, after big dog, Houston, won yesterday.  Today, we are going with the Washington Nationals and Wang -- over his former NYC rivals (when he was a Yankee) -- the Mets.  Public sentiment is on the Mets, so we like value on the Nationals.  - cb

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/28/11

We're going with Houston and W. Rodriguez tonight; some good value.  If you don't like the hugely long odds on Houston as visitors -- you can take the run-line and get the +1.5 runs.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/27/11

Weaver put a stop to our winning streak with a tight 2-1 pitcher's duel last night.  Today, we're looking to stay hot with the Mets and Pelfrey, visiting the Reds.  Public sentiment is strongly on the Reds, so the line has jumped a bit towards the Reds.  We like that line value.

Tuesday Free Pick - Score Four 7/26

We're going for four wins in a row today, with a play on Cleveland, at home, with young pitching stud J. Tomlin on the mound.  He's going up against Jer. Weaver -- so it will be a tough game -- but because of Weaver's name, we think there is value on Cleveland.   - jc

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/25/11

We're going for three wins in a row -- by going with the surprising Pirates again.  James McDonald has put together a string of quality games and has lowered his ERA to 4.15.  He has always had the potential and looks like he could be finding his "zone."  We'll take the Pirates on the road at huge odds, against ace Tim Hudson and the Braves, at home.  Some people might like the run-line in this game with the odds stacked so high against the Pirates.

Hudson has been matching his career stats at age 36, with a 3.4 ERA and 1.1 WHIP, but we'll go with youth over age in this game.  For the purposes of our blog, we'll take the Pirates on the run-line.  - cb & jc

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 7/24/11

We like the line value in the Pittsburgh game. The line has moved from Pittsburgh as a very slight dog to Pittsburgh +110 and +112 at many books. We like that kind of value for the surprising Pirates -- at home -- and Morton, who is in his prime years. Lohse -- and his 1.1 WHIP and 3.44 ERA -- is on the mound for the Cardinals. - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/23/11

We are going with an "ugly play" by taking KC over TB. KC is at home -- and the "ugliness" of the last place "KC pick" has created line movement value -- with KC going from a very slight favorite to plus odds. - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/22/11

We are taking the Pirates at home, with plus money line odds and Maholm on the mound versus big-name Carpenter. Carpenter is still pitching solidly, but is aging at age 36, while Maholm is close to his prime years at age 29 -- and a 3.06 ERA. Take the Pirates... - jc

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/21/11

Note that there are a lot of early games in baseball today. We like Tampa Bay, at home, with Shields on the mound. Shields, at plus odds, looks like a huge value. We'll take it and look for Tampa Bay to get back in the playoff race soon. - cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/20/11

I am taking SD & Harang and the line value -- on the road, visiting Florida and Nolasco. It looks ugly on paper, but the +157 odds is pretty juicy.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 7/19/11

We're going with a common name: HAPP on the mound for Houston.  Happ has underperformed this season -- and we hope that he'll show us a glimpse of what is still a lifetime ERA of below 4.00.  Grab the line movement value and Happ at home.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/18/11

The Tampa Bay-Yankee game is seeing some heavy one-sided betting action -- and we like the line value on the Rays.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Yankees -- so we'll grab the value on TB at home -- against big-name AJ Burnett.

Sunday Free Pick - WNBA 7/17/11

We're going with the big double-digit dog value in women's hoops -- and taking Tulsa +12 over the NY Liberty.  The game has a late afternoon start (eastern time).   - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/16/11

I am going with SD and young pitcher, Luebke -- over Zito & the Giants.  Public sentiment is on the Giants -- but the oddsmakers still have SD as the favorite.  Luebke is a relatively unknown quantity -- but his lifetime WHIP of 0.99 and ERA of 2.93 -- and youth seems to have a lot of potential and upside.  We'll take "youth over age" again -- and love the home field advantage.  - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/15/11

Today, we are going against the surprising Pirates -- and taking Houston and Myers, at home.  SportsInsights had a good mid-season update and noted that the Pirates have been the best team ATS so far this season.  We think that the Pirates are over-valued at this point -- and like Houston at home.

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/14/11

We are going with Toronto and Reyes on the mound over the A-Rod-less Yankees.  Jo-Jo Reyes is age 26 and seems to be improving as he nears his prime.  We'll take him at home over the Yanks.

Wednesday Free Pick - WNBA 7/13/11

It's the MLB All-Star Break -- but we're constantly monitoring the sports world.  Today, we'll take a play on the  big visiting dogs, Tulsa Shock, getting double-digit points in women's hoops (WNBA).  Our research shows that double-digit dogs are often good value in the WNBA.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 7/10/11

We are going with Seattle and young pitching star Felix Hernandez over the LAA.  Seattle is visiting, but we like getting Hernandez, with his lifetime 3.2 ERA and 1.2 WHIP -- at good, positive, moneyline odds.

The All-Star Break is coming up -- so no pick on Monday.  -jc

Saturday Free Pick - WNBA 7/9/11

Today, we are going with a bias in women's hoops: the WNBA.  We like big visiting dog, the Washington Mystic, getting +9 points.  We like the big points + the line movement -- which indicates that some sharps like the big dog as well.  - jc

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/8/11

We're going with one of the games with the heaviest betting action: the Red Sox-Oriole game.  Bosox pitcher Beckett has been "on fire" this season, with an ERA of around 2.00.  His record is 7-3.  We're going to use this as a potential way to get value, on the lowly Orioles.  The O's have a good, young pitcher in Zach Britton going for them.  To "even" the odds up a bit, you can take the run-line if you like.  Otherwise you can get about +200 odds.   - jc & cb

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/7/11

We like the value -- based on misleading stats --  on the KC Royals and Danny Duffy today.  Detroit starter Max Scherzer is a misleading 9-4.  While he is a decent pitcher, his win-loss record is inflating public sentiment on Detroit in today's game.  KC pitcher D. Duffy is just 22 years old -- so he is inconsistent -- but shows promise.  We'll take KC & Duffy at home today -- with nice moneyline odds of around +120.  - jc

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/6/11

We like the CWS with E. Jackson on the mound.  The pricing is a little steep, but we like the home-field advantage for the White Sox against KC, who has been poor on the road.  Some people may like to take the run-line if they don't want to pay the -145 odds.

Note that this is an early afternoon game.  - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 7/5/11

Verlander has been red-hot this year, so we're going to take the contrarian route -- and go with LAA and Haren on the mound.  We like the home-field bias, combined with "ugly" value and public sentiment on Verlander.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/4/11

Happy July 4th!!

Today, we're going with Nolasco and Florida, at home, against the Phillies.  Noly is slowly developing into the steady, ace, starting pitcher we thought he would turn out to be.  The Phils may struggle against Noly -- especially on the road.  Take Noly and get the + odds.  - cb

Sunday Free Pick - Tennis 7/3/11

We are going with a tennis play today.  We like red-hot Djokovic, who has gone an amazing 47-1 this season -- and was taken the number one ranking in the world from Nadal.  The surface favors Djokovic, and he is a slight underdog.  It should be a great match.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/2/11

We are going with one of our old picks -- Houston and Happ -- a good, solid pitcher.  Baseball is often difficult to put together a long winning streak because value is often on moneyline underdogs.  We like the value on Happ, at home, against the Red Sox.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/1/11

We're going with Bud Norris and the Astros, at home -- to try for two in a row -- and get hot again.  Bud Norris is looking like he may be fulfilling some of his promise.  He is also entering his prime career years.  He IS going up against the Red Sox and ageless Wakefield, but we like the potential upside of youth and potential downside of age.   - jb, cb

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 6/30/11

I am going with Houston at home, again.  It's nice having Wandy Rodriguez on the mound in this inter-league rivalry.  - cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/29/11

In a Texas inter-league match-up, we're taking Houston, at home, with Myers on the mound -- over Texas and Lewis on the mound.  There's some "juicy" money-line odds on Houston, that we believe is value over the long-term.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 6/28/11

We like Seattle and Pineda today at almost even odds.  Pineda is a good, young, stud pitcher -- and he probably won't keep up his 1.0 WHIP or 2.5 ERA -- but he definitely warrants some attention at close to even odds, pitching at home.  The Braves have another ace going in Hanson.  To be young, and good!

We like the value with Pineda, at home.  - jb, cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB 6/27/11

We're getting on Cleveland and Talbot as a heavy underdog -- but "live dog" with value in this inter-league game.  It's a late game this Monday evening.

- jb & cb

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 6/26/11

We're going with a seemingly ugly play, taking Pittsburgh over the Red Sox in inter-league play.  However, this play has valued based on a few angles:

• Pittsburgh is at home,
• McDonald is underperforming his career stats and has some decent upside.
• The Red Sox starter, A Miller, has yet to prove himself, and has struggled. 
• Because of public sentiment, the line is moving in the direction of the Red Sox -- so we are getting additional line value.  -cb & jc

Saturday Free Pick - WNBA 6/25/11

We're looking to get hot and make it two wins in a row today.  We're going with a play in women's basketball -- and taking Connecticut + 4 points, visiting Indiana.    - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/24/11

We are going with Baltimore at home over the Reds in inter-league play.  Both starting pitchers are mediocre -- but we like the + odds on Baltimore at home.  - cb

Thursday -- NO Play 6/23/11

Not many games today, and we don't see any particularly good value.  We'll be "selective" and save our ammunition for tomorrow.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/22/11

Today's Phillies-Cardinals game promises to be a great match-up. People still think of the playoffs when they hear Cliff Lee's name -- and that could be a reason for over-valuation. We are taking the Cardinals, at home, with Lohse on the mound, who continues to put up great numbers this season. We love the plus odds on the moneyline.

Tuesday Free Pick - WNBA 6/21/11

Today's play of the day is on a late game.  We were watching a few of the lines on the late games and today, we are taking the NY Liberty in women's hoops.  Our analysis shows that this is a solid play -- although we would have liked better line value.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 6/20/11

We're going with Anibal Sanchez and the Florida Marlins today.  We don't like going up against Cy Young candidate J. Weaver and the Angels -- but we like this play for several reasons:

• Sanchez is a good, young pitcher, entering his prime, like Weaver.
• Weaver has been smoking hot -- and value could be against him.
• Florida is at home.
• Both teams are mediocre, but Florida's offense is a touch better.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 6/19/11

Today's value play of the day is Milwaukee, with good young pitcher Gallardo on the mound, visiting the Red Sox, with Wakefield on the mound.  Tim Wakefield continues to "do what he does" -- and is remarkably consistent at age 44.  However, in this case, we have "youth versus age" -- and the higher likelihood of upside potential / surprises from Gallardo -- and downside potential from Wakefield, the aging veteran.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/18/11

We are going for three wins in a row today.  Our preferences in the NHL & NBA finals dragged us down a a bit, but we have been red-hot in baseball.  We're going with an unusual pick today.

We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games.  We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today.  The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds.  The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.

Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track.  Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season.  We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.

You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/17/11

I am taking Cleveland over Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is at home and the public likes the Pirates.  I like the pitching match-up and home field advantage.  Interleague play is often more difficult, but we like several factors.  - cb

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 6/16/11

We're going with an ugly pick, by taking Washington, at home vs. the hard-hitting Cardinals, with Cards reborn pitcher Kyle Lohse on the mound.  On paper, this looks like a really ugly, bad, play.  However, Lohse had a lifetime ERA of almost 5.00 before this season.  We'll go with young stud John Lannan -- and the Nationals at home -- and look for Lohse to "revert to the mean."   - jc, cb

Wednesday Free Pick - NHL 6/15/11

Today is the last day of NHL action -- so we're using this opportunity to take Vancouver at home -- at decent line value after Boston man-handled the Canucks once again (in Game 6).  Sports fans remember recent action -- and the line has been pushed down dramatically because of some of the Bruins' blowout wins.  The series could really go either way -- but I think this one has solid value with Vancouver, at home, to "do it" when it counts.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 6/14/11

We're going with ugly value -- and using extreme public sentiment -- to obtain value in a MLB play today.  We're going with Wells on the mound at home for Chicago.  Let's stay hot in MLB.  - cb

Monday Free Pick - NHL 6/13/11

We are taking Vancouver to "break serve" and win on Boston's home ice and take the Stanley Cup.  Because of Boston's big wins at home, public sentiment is on Boston to win at home and go to a Game 7.  We like Vancouver and the + odds.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/12/11

We're going back to the well and taking Miami in Game 6 of the NBA finals.  We think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.  We're going with LeBron and Miami at home.  Things have gone Dallas' way the past few games in Dallas -- and the betting public has driven the line down from Miami -6/-5.5 down to -4.5.

We'll keep an eye on the point spread and grab that line value at some point. We're hoping to extend our winning streak to three games in a row.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/11/11

We'll stay in MLB and we're taking Cuncy and Leake.  We don't like going up against Lincy much -- but getting Cincy with Leake on the mound at around +150 is a solid value (even if they are on the road).

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/10/11

Today, our play-of-the-day is in baseball -- on Seattle and solid pitcher, Bedard.  Seattle is visiting Detroit -- and the Tigers have a better offense, but we'll take Bedard in the pitching match-up AND get the plus moneyline odds.

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 6/9/11

I am staying with Miami in the NBA finals today.  I think that a great player like LeBron James will bounce back -- and it appears that some of the big money agrees, based on some of the steam moves in the point spread.

Wednesday Free Pick - NHL 6/8/11

We'll look to stay hot -- and will go with Vancouver at Boston in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  In the last game, Boston came out with urgency and crushed the Canucks.  Tonight, I think we will see the reverse -- and Vancouver will want to re-take a 2-game lead in the series.  Take Vancouver as a visiting underdog -- as a good value after their blowout loss in Game 3.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 6/7/11

Today, we're going with the ChiSox with Humber on the mound.  There are two good young pitchers going in this game, but we like this game for many reasons:

• CWS is at home,
• CWS has better offense,
• Pitching match-up is very close,
• Public likes Seattle's Hernandez -- so the line has been pushed up on Seattle,
• CWS has good + money line odds.  

Monday Free Pick - NHL 6/6/11

We're going with Vancouver today, in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals (this is for 3 wins in a row).  We like the plus moneyline odds -- because Vancouver is visiting Boston.  We think they will move closer to the championship.  Sentiment is on Boston at home, giving us additional value.  

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/5/11

I am going with Miami once again in the NBA Finals, Game 3. The series moves to Dallas now, so Miami is getting +2.5 points. The line opened at +3, but our line analysis shows that more of the "bigger bettors" are taking Miami plus the points. - jc & cb

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 6/4/11

We're going with the over in the NHL today. The low-scoring Game One may have created some value -- unless it takes 59 minutes plus to score in this game! With the Over set at 5, we have a good safe "spot" at the 5. -jb & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/3/11

Weaver remains red-hot, but betting on the visiting Yankees has driven the price for Weaver at home lower. I like that kind of line value -- and will pay some slight odds to get Weaver tonight. - jc

Thursday Free Pick - NBA (Score 4) 6/2/11

Not much baseball action today. We are going for four wins a row -- and will go back to the NBA finals and pick the Heat. They finished game one strongly -- and the point spread is the same: -4.5. We'll give the points as the triumvirate make their way to the championship. - cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/1/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. Today, we are going with a good, live, young arm -- in 26-year old Josh Tomlin. He has a lifetime 1.1 WHIP and is pitching for first place Cleveland.

We like youth, and the upside (value) of Tomlin -- on a potentially under-rated Indian team -- and especially the plus moneyline odds on Cleveland, visiting Toronto.

Tuesday Free Pick - NBA Finals 5/31/11

We're looking to stay on the winning side with a play on Game One of the NBA Finals. We like the analysis on the "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog (which point to Miami) -- and our models and methods also like Miami in the first game of the series.

Also -- whenever the playoffs heat up -- there's also good coverage on some of our favorite sites.

• Covers has a good article on the Miami-Dallas match-up -- and some of the betting trends point to Dallas.

• SportsInsights currently has betting leaning towards Dallas, so the contrarian in me likes Miami that much more.

I took Miami to win the series as well, because the numbers are not very steep. - jc & cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB 5/30/11

Today, we are taking the Reds with Woods on the mound.  The Reds have been in a bit of a slump, and public sentiment is on the visiting Brewers.  We like the value on Cincy at home, with one of their good, young pitchers on the mound.  - jc & cb

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/29/11

We are going with HAPP today again. Take Houston at home with HAPP on the mound. Solid value... jc & cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/28/11

We're going with a rare play -- by taking the Phillies -1.5 over the Mets (using the run-line). Cole Hamels is rejuvenated -- and Pelfrey is still off.  This looks like a total mismatch -- but since the Mets are at home, the odds are not very long for the Phillies.  Oftentimes, when a game "LOOKS" like a mismatch, there is value on the dog, but our baseball computer model likes the Phillies better than the listed odds.

We like the value on the Phillies; however, we still don't like laying the heavy odds -- so we are taking the run line. - cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 5/27/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. We like the Yankees today, as a very slight dog against a hot new rookie pitcher. Seattle pitcher Michael Pineda is just 22 years old but has a career record of 6-2 and 2.16 ERA -- and a 0.94 WHIP.

Seattle is at home -- but the weak-hitting Mariners face the heavy-hitting Yankees with veteran AJ Burnett on the mound. We like the Yankees as slight dogs most of the time. - jc & cb

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 5/26/11

We're looking to continue our winning ways and are going with Miami to wrap up the semifinals over Chicago today. The line opened with Chicago, at home, being favored by -2 or -2.5 points. The line has been pushed up to 3 -- and we like that line value, combined with a Miami Heat team that may smell blood. We'll take the Heat plus the points. - jc & cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 5/25/11

We've been on a cold streak. Let's get back on the winning side on veteran pitcher Santana and LAA over Oakland and young stud Trevor Cahill. Cahill looks good, but may be slightly over-valued with his hot start to the season. The line has been pushed down so you can get LAA at home with Santana on the mound -- at about even odds. - jc & cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB (Happ-y) 5/24/11

We believe there is value on Houston and Happ, pitching at home.  After a rough start to the season, Happ has returned to his solid form -- and career ERA in the mid-3's.  Billingsley is always tough --- but we think the pitching match-up is fairly close, with Happ pitching better of late.  Combine this with Houston at home against a weak-hitting Dodgers team -- and an undervalued Happ -- and we have a good value play.  - cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB Salami 5/23/11

We don't like the pitching match-ups, combined with the angles and trends we normally study -- so we are going with the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 81 in 10 games -- with several ace pitchers going today.  - jc & cb

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/22/11

I am going with the Dodgers again; I like Kuroda getting + odds.  It's a good pitching match-up for LA over the CWS.

- jc & cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB (Score 4) 5/21/11

We are trying to "score" 4 wins in a row today.  Yesterday, the Mets were a big underdog, padding our bankroll.

Today, I am taking the Dodgers and Garland -- who has been pitching solidly despite a 1-3 record.  Both the CWS and Dodgers have not been strong hitting clubs -- but there looks to be value on Garland and the Dodgers.  The line has been getting pushed up on the LAD.  - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 5/20/11

I am taking the Mets as a large dog -- the NY-NY rivalry is strong and anything can happen when the Mets and Yankees meet for a "Subway Series."  The line has been pushed up to almost -200 on the Yankees -- so I like the line value on Dickey -- who can be tricky (and is slightly undervalued currently).  - cb

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 5/19/11

Jake Peavy is a warrior -- and got us a win yesterday.

Let's continue our winning ways with a play in the NHL. I will take the visiting Bruins as they look to forge ahead in their playoff series vs. Tampa Bay. The Bruins are an overall better team -- and have the advantage on defense and goaltending.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 5/18/11

April showers have extended into May -- so we got another rainout yesterday. Today, I am going with Jake Peavy and the CWS. As Peavy settles in, you won't be able to get him at -125 at home for much longer. He did fine in his first outing.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 5/17/11

Yesterday's 19-run outburst by Cleveland over KC put an end to our winning streak (with a loss for our Grand Salami play).  This happens sometimes, but the weight of the Unders often lets us eke out wins with our MLB salami plays.

Today, we are going with the Mets & Niese -- at home against a hot Nolasco.  I don't love the pitching match-up -- but do believe that there is value based on Noly being red-hot and Niese, a solid pitcher, starting the season a little slowly ("ugly" value).  The Mets are at home and have been playing better as of late.

Monday Free Pick - MLB to "Score 4" 5/16/11

I don't love any individual baseball game -- and there's a lull in the NBA & NHL playoffs.  I will take the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 123.5 in 15 games.

This is for four wins in a row.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/15/11

Another Salami rainout yesterday.  We're still going for 3 wins in a row on our blog.  Today, we're taking the Reds and Travis Woods over an aging Carpenter and St. Louis.  The two best offenses in MLB go head-to-head in a battle for first place in the NL Central.  I like Cincy for a few reasons (with many reasons backed up by historical biases):

• Home team value
• Pitching match-up
• Pitching (youth & upside vs. potential age/decline)
• Public sentiment on the bigger-name Carpenter.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/14/11

We're going for three wins in a row today.  With the NBA & NHL playoffs winding down, there's not much action going on...   Today, we're going with the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Hoping the weather holds out...  - cb

Friday Free Pick - NBA 5/13/11

The pendulum has swung the other way -- and the public is no longer in love with Memphis.  Public sentiment is now strongly on Oklahoma City -- and has decreased the line just a bit.

We'll take Memphis -1.5 -- to extend the series.

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 5/12/11

This was posted yesterday (some of you may have seen it after it was "twittered") -- but Google's blogging platform went down.  We had KC over the Yankees in a fairly large dog.  We liked the pitching matchup over the Yankees' Nova.

(Rainout washed out Wed's play)

We'll post today's free pick soon...

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB Grand Salami 5/11/11

After a hot streak, we've lost two in a row -- and we're looking to get back on track with an Under in the MLB Grand Salami. Under 125.5 in 15 games.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 5/10/11

I am taking a (rare) favorite today -- but like the pitching match-up. I grabbed Lester and the Red Sox at a not-too-pricey -155.

Monday Free Pick - NBA 5/9/11

I am on the Celtics today -- with big line movement giving the Celtics +1.5 at home. There are a lot of naysayers -- and the Celtics may not be able to "do it again..." -- but I like the line value.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 5/8/11

We had a nice Saturday, with our regular free play winning -- and our Pac-man boxing play hitting at just under 2-1 odds (for the decision, without a knockout).

Today, we are on Dallas in the NBA.  They are slight favorites -- but public sentiment is still on the Lakers and Kobe -- as big-name favorites.  I like the value on Dallas; they have been a top performer during the playoffs -- and had the same record as the Lakers int he regular season.  Take Dallas at home...

Happy Mother's Day!

Mosley vs. Pac Man (Pacquiao)

There is a lot of sports activity today. Not only is there a full slate of baseball games, there are NHL & NBA playoff games. In addition, there is the Kentucky Derby & a big-name boxing match-up between Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao.

It is interesting that in horses and boxing, there are often mismatches -- and as a result -- there are often longshots. Historically, there is a long-shot-favorite bias whereby the public overvalues long-shots and undervalues the favorites.

Please check out this SportsInsights article on this bias.

In one of our articles, we highlighted the long-standing longshot-favorite bias that exists in horse racing and boxing betting. The sports betting research that SportsInsights.com performs for major US sports has uncovered biases that relate to betting against the public — and generally finds value on underdogs.

Interestingly, the opposite is generally true for major horse racing and boxing events. In these events, there is a LOT of public interest in these “one-time events.” Boxing and horses often offer long-shot “lottery ticket” opportunities that offer attractive odds to the casual bettor. This means that long-shots are OVER-valued — and that “sharps” and professionals are often on the undervalued favorites.

http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/05/horses-boxing-favorite-bias/

I will lean towards Pac-Man (in a decision) for this reason.

Some additional coverage and links:

• A great Covers article: (Public on Mosley)

The consensus among ringside experts is that "Sugar" Shane Mosley needs a miraculous performance to upset Manny Pacquiao Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. But that isn't stopping public bettors from backing the underdog in the fight.

“Almost all of the money has been on Mosley,” Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay said. “All the small money accumulates on Mosley before the fight. Then, on the day of the fight, you will see a lot of money bet on Pacquiao.”

Read more here: http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232965

• More on the longshot-favorite bias: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/05/quant-fact-long-shot-favorite-bias.html

• Shane Mosley http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shane_Mosley

• Pac Man http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manny_Pacquiao

- jc & cb

Kentucky Derby

Here is some great coverage on the Kentucky Derby by Covers.com:

Over the years, some handicapping trends have held up very well in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at some Kentucky Derby trends that hold water and others that should be taken with a grain of salt:

Fewer than six career races

It is pretty close to the golden rule, when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby, that a horse had to have run at least six times in his career in order to be a legitimate contender for the roses.

Since 1933, only four winners have run five or fewer times and still had the base of experience and stamina needed to win this race. Three of those horses had run five times and Big Brown was a total fluke with just three career races.

This year, there is a solid chance that we will add another horse to the list because there are a number of inexperienced horses. We have to start with likely favorite Dialed In. He has run just four times. Depending on your view, that’s a serious warning sign, especially if he goes off at a low price.

Midnight Interlude and Animal Kingdom join him with just four races and Uncle Mo, Nehro and Shackleford have just five under their belts. There is a decent chance that the top three betting choices will all be light on experience.

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232768

Some of my favorites:

• Archarcharch
• Mucho Macho Man

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/7/11

Our six-game winning streak was stopped by the Yankees last night. We'll go with one of our favorite plays: the Under in the Grand Salami (Under 125.5 in 15 games).

Please visit my blog later; I will have some thoughts on:

• the Kentucky Derby &
• Pacman-Mosley

Friday Free Pick - MLB (Lucky 7?) 5/6/11

We are hot again -- and going for 7 wins in a row today.

I am on Texas to beat the Yankees at home. Not a great pitching match-up, but Texas looks to have the upper hand with Harrison over Nova. Everybody knows about the Yankees and their big HR hitters. However, Texas also has its offense going -- as well as the Bronx Bombers and their big dingers.

Thursday Free Pick - MLB (Pick 6) 5/5/11

We are hot again -- and going for 6 wins in a row.  I have the under in the MLB Grand Salami.

Under 99.5 runs in 12 games.

Wednesday's Free Pick - MLB 5/4/11

We are still going for 5 wins a row due to the rainout yesterday.

Today, I am on taking Tim Hudson and Atlanta at home against Milw (and probably Greinke, fresh off the DL). It's a rare play on a favorite, but the odds are not too heavy -- and are a good value in this setup.

Tuesday Free Pick - Strive for Five 5/3/11

We've put together a winning streak again -- and we are going for five wins in a row.  Today, I am taking the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 126 runs in 15 games.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 5/2/11

It's not often you can get the Yankees as underdogs, with a solid pitching match-up.  Bartolo Colon has been rejuvenated -- not only in new surroundings, but Yankee pinstripes.  On the other hand, Verlander has been his usual solid self -- but has a win-loss record of just 2-3.  I like the value of the Yankees as dogs.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/1/11

After a cold spell, we are now gunning for 3 wins in a row.  Today, I am on Bud Norris & Houston, at home.

Houston has gotten off to a slow start, but their offense has been equal to Milwaukee's.  And, I particularly like the pitching match-up -- with a younger, and potentially better starter in Norris over Milwaukee's Narveson.  So -- the edges for us include:

• Home team
• pitching match-up
• underdog value
• slow start for Houston (and revert to mean)

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 4/30/11

I like Wandy Rodriguez & Houston over Milwaukee and Randy Wolf today.  Big Wandy normally K's almost 200 batter a year -- and he still has that kind of "stuff."  He's also been pitching a bit better lately -- and I look for him to start returning to form...

On the other hand, Wolf has been hot, and perhaps he will "revert to the mean" as well.  I like Houston and Wandy at home -- as a solid home dog.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 4/29/11

I am taking the UNDER in the MLB Grand Salami.  130 runs in 15 games: the weight of many games on the under and some stud pitchers...

Have a good weekend.

NBA Betting Tips

I thought this was a good article by SportsInsights.  Some good info and betting tips.

Below are some betting tips that came to mind when looking at last night’s results.

• We often talk about playoffs, games on national TV, and other “big games” — where the edge in sports investing and contrarian value seems to be magnified.  Here is a SportsInsights article on this “big game” trend (as well as other betting tips).

• The lines are often biased against the public to increase sportsbook profit margins; the link points to aneconomist’s view of “how and why” point spreads are shaded.

• Point spreads are often “sharp” — so that if you “Shop for the best line” — you can improve your results.  Last night’s Memphis-San Antonio game is a prime example.  If you shopped for the best line, you would either push or beat the point spread, depending on your side.  The line was waffling between Memphis +6.5 and +7 — and the game landed on +7.

For the whole article:
http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/04/sports-betting-tips-nba-sportsinsights/

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/28/11

With so many underdogs covering during this year's NBA playoffs, I like the line movement and value on Portland today.  Sometimes the pendulum swings too far -- and you can obtain value going against extreme trends.

Portland faces elimination against Dallas -- and with Portland at home, and the public on Dallas -- I think Portland is a good play.  The line opened with Portland favored by -4.5 -- and the sentiment has reduced the spread to -4.  I am watching the line and hoping to get Portland -3.5 or better.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 4/27/11

I am on Houston today with JA Happ, a young pitcher who has started this season slowly -- but has a 20-12 lifetime record and 3.5 ERA.  The public likes St. Louis -- and this has added some line value.

Happ & Houston are a live dog with solid value.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 4/26/11

I am on Cincy and Leake today.  Leake is a solid young pitcher -- and his "brush with the law" -- may help him stay focused (and regain his form from a year ago).

Leake's last few starts show that he may "be back" -- and in particular, his last start shows that his "troubles" may impact him in a positive way.

Monday Free Pick - MLB Salami 4/25/11

I am on the Under on the MLB Grand Salami today.  Under 76.5 in 9 games; data shows that the "weight of many games" increases the bias of Unders -- in MLB Grand Salami plays.  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/24/11

I am taking Seattle and a good young pitcher, D. Fister, at home -- over Oakland and another good, young pitcher (B. Anderson).  Both are solid pitchers -- and I like getting + odds with Fister and Seattle at home.

Happy holidays!

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 4/23/11

Looking to stay on the right side of the column with a MLB pick.  I am taking SD at home with Stauffer on the mound (against a tough Phillies team).

Friday Free Pick - NBA 4/22/11

I am going to be on the Celtics tonight.  The line has grown so that the Celtics are receiving +3.5 points.  I like the value -- and think there is a good chance the Celtics win outright.

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 4/21/11

I am taking the LA Kings tonight.  Public sentiment is on the other side, so I expect additional line value on the Kings...   Solid home dog.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 4/20/11

I am going with Seattle and Bedard today (over Detroit).  In a battle of winless pitchers, we are looking for Bedard to level off with some solid starts.  While he may not recover from his injuries -- his 2011 spring training showed that he has recovered and can be productive.

Both pitchers have ERAs above 6.00 -- but we like Bedard at home today.  It's an afternoon game.  

NBA & NHL Playoff Betting Tips

Here are some bettng tips and some interesting information on the NBA and NHL playoffs.  First, in the NBA:

• I generally like big underdogs -- and the NBA playoffs are no exception.  
• SportsInsights recently commented on big dogs in the NBA playoffs (and their solid performance so far in the playoffs).
• With the dogs making such a strong showing, there's a chance that the pendulum has swung too far.  I will be looking to see if the favorites are showing some hints of (surprising) value.  

In the NHL:

• Early low-scoring and hard-checking playoff games have given way to more scoring over recent games.  The pendulum swings both ways and you have to keep an eye on value.  The Big Salami totals have shrunken, leading to potential value again on the Over.
• In the NHL, there is a bias to visitors -- and we will be watching this trend as the playoff series extend.  That is, heavy home favorites (for the higher-rated seeds) are switching to games that are more "even" as the lower-rated seeds get home ice.  
• I will be watching for value on visitors in these "closer" games.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 4/19/11

We've cooled off a bit -- but will stick with our guns of being selective -- and seeking out value plays.  Today, we will take a quality young pitcher, 23 yr-old Kyle Drabek and Toronto over the heavy-hitting Yankees and aging veteran AJ Burnett.

Burnett is a deceiving 3-0 -- with an ERA of 4.67.  We'll go with youth over age -- and take an "ugly" pick.  The Yankees will be a good team this year, but they have been hot out of the gate and are over-valued.    

Monday Free Pick - MLB Line Value 4/18/11

I am on KC today with some solid line value (increasing from slight fav to slight dog).

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 4/17/11

We are looking to get back to our winning ways -- with a pick in the NBA playoffs.  We are taking a rare favorite -- the Celtics -6 -- because it looks like the Celtics are undervalued in this game.

We love the stats at Covers.com -- particularly their ATS records, as well as margin of victory and other key indicators.  Some reasons we love the Celtics over the Knicks (minus the points) today:

• My "simple probabilistic model" shows that the Celtics, at home, should be favored closer to double-digit points in this game. 
• ATS records show that the Knicks outperformed this season -- but came back to earth a bit by the end of the season.
• The betting is fairly split -- which is unusual when a team is favored by this much.  To me, this means that the public is leaning towards the Knicks.
• Since the Carmelo trade the general public -- and deep-pocketed NY fans -- HAS overvalued the Knicks. 

We took the Celtics and gave the 6 points.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 4/16/11

I like the under in the NHL grand salami.  Playoff hockey is tighter-checking hockey.  Under 21 with good money line odds...  Solid value.

Friday Free Pick - MLB (Pick 6) 4/15/11

We are going for six wins in-a-row today.  We hope that our blog has helped your bankroll.  Please visit our blog regularly for betting trends and biases I have been researching -- as well as daily free picks.  I will have some information on the NHL and NBA playoffs soon.

Today, I am going with Arizona's young D. Hudson over the bigger-name SF Giants and M. Cain.  Hudson is an up-and-coming young pitcher (born in 1987!) -- who has a career ERA of about 2.7 and whip of about 1.1 (in about 130 IP).  Hudson's 0-2 record is deceiving because he had quality starts in his first two games of the season (giving up 2 and 3 ERs in 7 and 6 IP, respectively).

The Arizona offense is scoring better than SF's in the early part of the season -- so a "slight dog at home" -- is a good value play.

Thursday Free Pick - NHL (Drive for 5) 4/14/11

We are turning to the NHL in our "drive for five" wins in a row.  With the NHL playoffs in gear, we are going to take the Under in the NHL Grand Salami with the closer-checking NHL playoff games.  

You can get Under 16 without paying too much in terms of odds at some books.  Try to NOT pay big odds for the 16.5.  

Wednesday Free Pick - Score 4 4/13/11

We're trying to "Score Four" wins in a row on our blog.  Today, we are going with a good SD team and Stauffer -- over a hot Cincy team and potential overvalued T. Wood.

T. Wood looks like a good, young, pitcher -- but Stauffer is not minced meat either.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Reds, and SD looks like a good live dog in this one.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 4/12/11

We're going for 3 in a row today -- and staying with TB and David Price.  David Price's ERA is higher than it should be based on his WHIP, etc.  Some big odds on the visiting Rays over Boston -- at +163 and growing.

Grab the line value.

Derek Jeter -- value prop play

Just a fun play if you are interested.  I don't like futures/props very much (time value of money) -- but this play seemed like a good value.  Jeter is struggling -- and there are props on "when Jeter will get his 3,000th hit."  I was able to get 2-1 odds for June 21st or after.

With Jeter struggling:

• he may move down in the lineup, meaning fewer at bats.  
• In addition, although an all-time great, players often decline in terms of batting average with age.
• Public sentiment is on Jeter; he is a beloved player in deep-pocketed NYC -- and well-respected, in general.  
• Thus, I think there is value on the play of getting the hit on the latter side...  

Monday Free Pick - MLB 4/11/11

It's amazing that the Bosox and Rays are a combined 3-15.  That's a .167 winning percentage!

Today, I am taking the Rays and a good, young, pitcher -- over  big-name Dice K at the Red Sox.  There's some good odds on this game at about +140.  Sadly, Dice-K has not made it back after his World Baseball Classic injury back in 2009.  We're going with youth over decline/age in this one.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/10/11

Looking to start a new winning streak -- and stay hot -- with a play against a hot Cincy team and a good young pitcher.  BUT -- sometimes this is how you can get value.  I am taking Arizona -- and hoping the line gets juicier for Ariz.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 4/9/11

These "April showers" bring rain-outs and no-action for the Grand Salami.  Today, we're going with a play in MLB, with Atlanta (Beachy), at home, over the Phils (Oswalt).

Friday Free Pick - MLB Grand Salami 4/8/11

I am taking the under in the MLB grand salami today.  Note that the first game of the day is at 3pm, eastern; although there seems to be a lot of rain around (so hopefully games don't get rained out).

Under 125.5 in 15 games.

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/7/11

How often can you get the Celtics +4.5 points -- and as a value play?  (Going for two in a row today on our blog; thanks for visiting!).

I like the Celtics plus the points in this playoff preview against the Bulls.  The oddsmakers finally seem to be catching up with the Chicago Bulls, who still have a great record ATS -- but have been struggling recently ATS.  Over their past 10 games, they are 4-6 ATS -- while winning the vast majority of their games.  I love the stats at Covers.com with respect to ATS data and statistics.

I am watching the line and hope it gets driven up further.

Master of the Masters 4/7/11

Here's a quick look at some of the contenders for the Masters Tournament -- with potential value...  

Name, Odds, Rank in GIR %, Putt Avg, Birdie Avg

LOWER ODDS (Favorites)

N. Watney   18-1,  32, 2, 1  (should be a favorite)

D. Johnson   24-1, 20, 37, 2  (another favorite)

H Mahan    35-1, 30, 35, 8

B Watson   38-1, 2, 70, 12 

M Kuchar   35-1, 21, 10, 8  (a favorite; consistent level of play: GIR/Putts/Birdies!;  with higher odds)

LONGER SHOTS (but potential value)

G Woodland  143-1, 24, 14, 5 (young, but hugely solid)

M Laird     55-1, 51, 16, 11

A Badderley  106-1, 18, 56, 12 (also a seeming bargain..??)

OTHER NOTABLES (some with no stats)

T Woods   10-1, NO info

P Mickelson 10-1, 113, 44, 7 (Dangerous, can win it)

L Westwood  18-1

M Kaymer  17-1

Wednesday Free Pick - Grand Salami 4/6/11

Our winning streak ended yesterday (we were going for 6 in a row).  We're looking to stay hot with a pick in the Grand Salami.  I like this play because there appears to be an edge in the data I have studied.  This bias has helped me to pad my bankroll during the NHL season.  I believe that a similar approach will work in MLB -- and I am collecting the data.

Please visit my blog regularly for free picks -- and some of the sports betting biases ideas I am studying (and using!).

Today's free play of the day: Take the Over in  the NHL Grand Salami.  Over 44.5 in 8 games.

Tuesday Free Pick - Pick Six - 4/5/11

We are going for 6 wins in a row on our blog.

We are looking to keep the hot streak going by taking TB today in MLB.  It's a tough game vs. LAA and Jer. Weaver -- but TB is at home and has a solid J. Niemann on the mound.  We like the home field advantage and the close-to-even-odds.

Monday Free Pick - March Madness 4/4/11

We picked up another win yesterday, in MLB.  

With the big NCAA March Madness finals today -- we are going with Connecticut.  People seem to like the Butler "Cinderella story" and their back-to-back finals -- but I like ALL of the factors on CT's side...  Coaching, leadership, biggest star on the court (Walker!).   Give the points -- (and based on public sentiment, maybe the spread will continue to shrink).  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/3/11

I am taking Texas today in MLB -- over Boston.  We are looking to stay hot -- going for 4 wins in a row.

Note that during the baseball regular season, a vast majority of the time, I will take underdogs and get PLUS money line odds -- so that winning streaks may be harder to come by.  HOWEVER, the units earned should be good in the long-term.

Saturday Free Pick - March Madness 4/2/11

We have been staying hot -- and are going for three wins in a row.  Our blog's free picks have gone 10-3 in our last 13 plays-of-the-day.  We're going with a March Madness play today.

We like Butler -- based on their experience, several stats, and VCU's recent hot play (which we believe could be creating some value).  Here is some interesting analysis on the Final Four.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 4/1/11

Today's free pick is in MLB.  I am taking Texas, at home.

Baseball Betting Biases & Tips

Opening Day has arrived.  Here are some sources of info that I follow regularly.

• Covers always has great sports betting coverage, and here's an article that has some basic tips (follow streaks, pay attention to who is playing/out of lineup, bullpens, money management).
• SportsInsights just came out with an update to their regular series of articles on "betting against the public."  Some good academic research, info and guidelines (fade public, betting % guidelines, home teams appear undervalued).    
• I also like this spring training analysis that was published in the NY Times from "Who Will Win?" -- and will use it for potential value early in the season.  

Please visit my blog regularly for free plays of the day and betting tips that can help with your sports handicapping.  

Thursday Free Pick - Opening Day! 3/31/11

In honor of Opening Day -- our play of the day is a MLB play.  We're going to take the Dodgers over big name pitcher Lincy and the visiting Giants.  Kershaw, at home, at almost even odds -- is the play for us.

Enjoy the baseball season -- and visit our blog for more MLB info soon.

Let's Play Ball!

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 3/30/11

Our streak is over (the Penguins couldn't hold the Flyers off after an early lead) -- but we're looking to stay hot with a spring training play.  

Today, we've taken the Phillies over the Pirates.  The biases: home team and a far superior team.  The baseball regular season is almost ready to start!    

Tuesday Free Pick - NHL 3/29/11

Yesterday's rainout in spring training means we are still going for 4 wins in a row and 9 of our last 10 plays.

Today's free pick is in the NHL -- on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Flyers.  Pittsburgh is at home.  Sentiment is on the first place Flyers -- and has moved the line a bit, so there is decent line value on the Penguins.

Monday Free Pick - Score 4 (& 9 of 10) 3/28/11

We hope that you have been benefiting from our hot streak and will visit our blog regularly.  Today, we are going for 4 wins in a row (and 9 of our last 10 free plays).

We post to some forums as well, but will always post our "plays of the day" on our blog.  Our goal is to use contrarian methods and statistical biases to help sports bettors gain an edge in sports betting.  I have studied various approaches and post short articles from time to time on various topics, including:

• money management,
• betting tips, 
• sports betting biases
• and research results.

In today's sports marketplace, I am taking Atlanta over Washington in MLB spring training.  Atlanta is borderline pricey -- but has several biases that have proven to be successful in spring training (home team, superior team).  

Sunday Free Pick - March Madness Play 3/27/11

We're looking to continue our hot streak.  Going for 3 in a row today -- and trying for 8 of our last 9 free picks for our plays of the day.

I am taking the UNDER in  Kansas-VCU game.  Some huge line movement there -- the total moved from 142 all the way to 147.5.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 3/26/11

After the streak ended on Thursday, we started a new winning streak with yesterday's play on New Orleans in the NBA. New Orleans was a good line value play, with the line opening at NO +3 and moving all the way to +6.5 at some books. They turned out to be an outright winner.

Today, I am going with the Under in the NHL big salami. It's a big lineup for the NHL, with 12 games on Saturday. On a big day like this, the law of averages seems to weigh the unders down for the cumulative day.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/25/11

Well, our five-game winning streak is over, but our blog has been doing fairly well.  Let's get another winning streak going.  Today, I am going with a play in the NBA.

I like New Orleans over Phoenix.  There is some good line value, combined with visiting value and anti-public sentiment.  The line opened at NO +3 and has moved to +5 recently.

Thursday Free Pick - Pick Six (in a row!) 3/24/11

Our blog is going for six wins in a row today.  During this winning streak, our picks have been in MLB spring training, the NHL, and the NBA.  Today, our free pick of the day is in MLB once again.

I am taking San Fran in an evening game.  They are at home and the line has been pushed down so that they are just slight favorites.

Wednesday Free Pick - Strive for Five 3/23/11

We are going for five wins in a row on our blog.

Our play of the day is on Colorado over Seattle in MLB Spring Training.  Let's make it five in a row!

Tuesday Free Pick - Score Four 3/22/11

With yesterday's rainout in MLB spring training, we are again trying to "score four" wins in a row on our blog.

We are going with the Under in the NHL big salami today.  55 goals in 10 games.

Monday Free Pick - Score Four 3/21/11

Today, we're going for four wins in a row on the blog.

I am taking Cincy in MLB spring training.

Sunday Free Pick - Going for 3-in-a-row 3/20/11

Our blog's free picks / "play of the day" -- are going for 3 wins in a row.  Today we are going with the NHL over in the big salami.  Over 32.5 in 6 games.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 3/19/11

Trying to make it two games in a row on the blog.  Going with San Diego in MLB spring training.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/18/11

Today's play of the day is in the NBA.  I am going with Denver -- (Denver seems to be undervalued since the Carmelo trade).  They have been playing just fine -- but the value is giving them a big +6 points as visitors today.

Thursday Free Pick - Madness Pick 3/17/11

In honor of the start of March Madness, I am going with a college hoops play.  I am taking a big dog in NC Asheville + 18 over Pittsburgh.  I like the dog and the big points in a potentially low-scoring game.

The blog's free picks are going for 3 wins in a row.

NCAA Bracket Info

Here is some bracket information I have been looking at when completing my brackets. Have fun!

• This is a nice calculator from BracketScience. Some features are available for members only, but there's still some good info.
• Here are some probabilities generated by that U-Chicago pool I mentioned. The financial marketplace approach to the pool resulted in interesting and reasonable probabilities that can help differentiate your own brackets!!
• Some standouts from those probabilities:
• Florida State, a #10 seed = 55.6% to advance to next round
• Missouri, #11 = 59.8%
• Marquette #11 = 51.0%
• Old Dominion #9 = 57.8%
• Utah St #12 = 52.3%
• Michigan St #10 = 54.1%
• This NY Times article also shows some good probabilities.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 3/16/11

Trying for two in a row in MLB spring training.  I don't normally like this many favorites, so I might as well get it out of my system for spring training.  I am taking the Yankees today.  They are home, and -- much stronger than Baltimore.  The line has been pushed down a bit, so I like the value. 

I will take a look at some Final Four Bracket info before the big NCAA tournament.