NHL Finals - 2013

At this point in the series, I LOVE the Black Hawks.

Besides Game Three, the Black Hawks have been outplaying the Bruins, with the B's being held in the games by hot goaltending.  When the goaltending evens out -- I think we'll see a big win by the Black Hawks on Saturday, a Stanley Cup parade in the Windy City.

Black Hawks in 6.

2012 NFL Conference Championships

In today's AFC & NFC Championship games, we like San Francisco and Baltimore to beat the spread -- and perhaps even for Baltimore to advance to the Super Bowl against SF.  New England is an interesting story; they have looked old and weaker earlier in the season, but then finished strongly -- but against an over-rated and generally weak schedule.  Thus, we like Baltimore a lot in the AFC game.

In the NFC game, we think it can potentially be a blowout -- for a strong 49er team with the top-ranked NFL defense -- against an over-achieving Giant team.  Here are some links to info we like:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-nfc-championship-game.html

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-16/

http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=262219

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 10/9/11

On an NFL Sunday, we are going with a baseball pick.

We LOVE the value on the Cardinals today. We like the juicy moneyline odds on the visiting Card... Also, we like this analysis from the "Who Will Win" authors.

Overall, the factors lean to the Cardinals with their big team batting average. 

NBA & NHL Playoff Betting Tips

Here are some bettng tips and some interesting information on the NBA and NHL playoffs.  First, in the NBA:

• I generally like big underdogs -- and the NBA playoffs are no exception.  
• SportsInsights recently commented on big dogs in the NBA playoffs (and their solid performance so far in the playoffs).
• With the dogs making such a strong showing, there's a chance that the pendulum has swung too far.  I will be looking to see if the favorites are showing some hints of (surprising) value.  

In the NHL:

• Early low-scoring and hard-checking playoff games have given way to more scoring over recent games.  The pendulum swings both ways and you have to keep an eye on value.  The Big Salami totals have shrunken, leading to potential value again on the Over.
• In the NHL, there is a bias to visitors -- and we will be watching this trend as the playoff series extend.  That is, heavy home favorites (for the higher-rated seeds) are switching to games that are more "even" as the lower-rated seeds get home ice.  
• I will be watching for value on visitors in these "closer" games.

Reflections on 2010

As we get ready for a new year, it's always nice to reflect on the year that is coming to an end.

I thought this article was interesting. It made me think -- and try to analyze where we can find the most value in the sports betting world. I also checked out some stats at Covers.com, another great sports betting website. In particular, I looked at ATS records for teams during 2010 to see if there was any pattern that might emerge.

Here are some observations and notes as we get set for 2011.

• Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
• The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
• In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
• A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
• Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
• The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
• Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
• The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!

Happy New Year!

Who Wins? (Playoff Series)

This website compiles historical data on "Who Wins" seven-game playoff series. We can use probability and statistics to compute the expected results -- and history DOES prove the numbers correct. There ARE some additional reasons to visit this site:

• Home / away (schedule) impacts results,
• Results vary a bit by sport (some sports are more "random" than others.

I love this website -- and think it can be useful for sports futures during playoff series.

http://whowins.com/