BCS -- take the points

In this year's BCS game, I like Auburn and the points.  Too many people are expecting a blowout for Florida State.  Although the public is more on Auburn than I would like, I like the fact that Auburn played a much tougher schedule than Florida State.

I looked up some stats -- and this is the widest spread in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) ever in a BCS national championship game.  AND -- when there has been a reasonable spread in terms of SOS, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 or 5-1, depending on the spread you look at...

Look for a closer game than expected and take the points.    

2013 BCS: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

As we near this year's BCS Championship game, there are plenty of story lines.  We like Alabama to win big in this game.  We'll wait for some of our regular sources, to add to our analysis and level of betting, but we definitely prefer the Crimson Tide.  Sure, Notre Dame is undefeated and eked out Alabama to have the best defense in the nation.  However, Alabama also has one of the nation's best offenses, while ND's offense is below average.

The ND "D" might be able to hold off Alabama more than most teams.  We see the teams evenly-matched on D -- BUT Alabama's O is much better than Notre Dame's.  Some would say that Alabama's stats are even under-rated due to Coach Saban not running up the score.  

Alabama has two 1,000 yard rushers and a QB with a 173 QB rating.  Notre Dame, of course, is not a pushover, but Alabama has been winning big for several years.

In terms of sports marketplace action, there are indications of syndicates taking Alabama to roll over Notre Dame.  Most bets are on ND, but the line has become extended in Alabama's favor.

Read more here (will add more as we come across good articles):

• http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/21486098/best-dynasty-ever-alabama-can-close-its-case-with-another-title

Final Four: ALSO in College Football?!

Check this out: the BCS looks like it will FINALLY get a playoff going for the College Football National Championship.

Leaders of the Bowl Championship Series will present to their constituents the option of a four-team college football playoff beginning in 2015, BCS executive director Bill Hancock said Thursday afternoon.

Associated Press

Bowl Championship Series executive director Bill Hancock

Hancock said commissioners from the BCS conferences will present to conference constituents two to seven options for a four-team playoff. Those options include holding semifinals at campus sites, as well as neutral-site games. A championship game will be held at a neutral site, either an existing bowl or a site that bids in advance to host the game.

Hancock acknowledged that if a four-team playoff is approved by the 11 participating conferences and the BCS’s presidential oversight committee, it will be a “seismic event.” Major-college football never has had a playoff. BCS leaders have ruled out 16- and eight-team playoffs.

Read more here:
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2012/04/26/college-football-bcs-bosses-want-four-team-playoff/?mod=WSJBlog 

BCS Game: #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

We like Alabama in the big game tonight. It will be interesting to see how the #1 defense (Alabama) does... but I like them! Also check out the Who Will Win analysis.

2011 BCS Championship

I like Oregon for a few reasons. Attached are some links that I like...

• Based on some book's research on sports psychology. Their results have been good. http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-will-win-college-football.html
• Also, they got a press mention:
• http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6162234/who_will_win_the_bcs_championship_1.html?cat=14
• The betting public generally favors Auburn -- so I like going the other way for value.
• Line movement, combined with public sentiment seems to indicate that "syndicates" are on Oregon.