Monday Free Pick - MLB Salami 5/23/11

We don't like the pitching match-ups, combined with the angles and trends we normally study -- so we are going with the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 81 in 10 games -- with several ace pitchers going today.  - jc & cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB to "Score 4" 5/16/11

I don't love any individual baseball game -- and there's a lull in the NBA & NHL playoffs.  I will take the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 123.5 in 15 games.

This is for four wins in a row.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB Grand Salami 5/11/11

After a hot streak, we've lost two in a row -- and we're looking to get back on track with an Under in the MLB Grand Salami. Under 125.5 in 15 games.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/7/11

Our six-game winning streak was stopped by the Yankees last night. We'll go with one of our favorite plays: the Under in the Grand Salami (Under 125.5 in 15 games).

Please visit my blog later; I will have some thoughts on:

• the Kentucky Derby &
• Pacman-Mosley

Thursday Free Pick - MLB (Pick 6) 5/5/11

We are hot again -- and going for 6 wins in a row.  I have the under in the MLB Grand Salami.

Under 99.5 runs in 12 games.

Tuesday Free Pick - Strive for Five 5/3/11

We've put together a winning streak again -- and we are going for five wins in a row.  Today, I am taking the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 126 runs in 15 games.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 4/29/11

I am taking the UNDER in the MLB Grand Salami.  130 runs in 15 games: the weight of many games on the under and some stud pitchers...

Have a good weekend.

Monday Free Pick - MLB Salami 4/25/11

I am on the Under on the MLB Grand Salami today.  Under 76.5 in 9 games; data shows that the "weight of many games" increases the bias of Unders -- in MLB Grand Salami plays.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 4/16/11

I like the under in the NHL grand salami.  Playoff hockey is tighter-checking hockey.  Under 21 with good money line odds...  Solid value.

Friday Free Pick - MLB Grand Salami 4/8/11

I am taking the under in the MLB grand salami today.  Note that the first game of the day is at 3pm, eastern; although there seems to be a lot of rain around (so hopefully games don't get rained out).

Under 125.5 in 15 games.

Wednesday Free Pick - Grand Salami 4/6/11

Our winning streak ended yesterday (we were going for 6 in a row).  We're looking to stay hot with a pick in the Grand Salami.  I like this play because there appears to be an edge in the data I have studied.  This bias has helped me to pad my bankroll during the NHL season.  I believe that a similar approach will work in MLB -- and I am collecting the data.

Please visit my blog regularly for free picks -- and some of the sports betting biases ideas I am studying (and using!).

Today's free play of the day: Take the Over in  the NHL Grand Salami.  Over 44.5 in 8 games.

NHL Grand Salami -- Totals

I have been toying with this idea about NHL totals (total goals scored by both teams for that given day's NHL games). Many sportsbooks offer a line for total goals scored in the NHL for that day. Some books call this the "Grand Salami."

I originally thought that since much of the public generally leans to "overs" -- that it might be good to take "under" for the entire Grand Salami. I didn't have a source of historical data on this type of bet, so I started to collect data...

After just a short while, it appears that you can capture the statistical "tail" in some ways. In any given game, the current total of about 5.5 goals is a good over/under line for the total. However, there is a certain percentage of games that might be 8+ goal games (and even higher).

This seems like it can skew the results to the over side a bit (you can have a 10 goal game for instance at 6-4, but you can't have fewer than 1 goal in a game).

this play is also fun because you sort of have "action" on every NHL game that day... We'll keep an eye on this play...