Baseball Betting Biases & Tips

Opening Day has arrived.  Here are some sources of info that I follow regularly.

• Covers always has great sports betting coverage, and here's an article that has some basic tips (follow streaks, pay attention to who is playing/out of lineup, bullpens, money management).
• SportsInsights just came out with an update to their regular series of articles on "betting against the public."  Some good academic research, info and guidelines (fade public, betting % guidelines, home teams appear undervalued).    
• I also like this spring training analysis that was published in the NY Times from "Who Will Win?" -- and will use it for potential value early in the season.  

Please visit my blog regularly for free plays of the day and betting tips that can help with your sports handicapping.  

Thursday Free Pick - Opening Day! 3/31/11

In honor of Opening Day -- our play of the day is a MLB play.  We're going to take the Dodgers over big name pitcher Lincy and the visiting Giants.  Kershaw, at home, at almost even odds -- is the play for us.

Enjoy the baseball season -- and visit our blog for more MLB info soon.

Let's Play Ball!

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 3/30/11

Our streak is over (the Penguins couldn't hold the Flyers off after an early lead) -- but we're looking to stay hot with a spring training play.  

Today, we've taken the Phillies over the Pirates.  The biases: home team and a far superior team.  The baseball regular season is almost ready to start!    

Tuesday Free Pick - NHL 3/29/11

Yesterday's rainout in spring training means we are still going for 4 wins in a row and 9 of our last 10 plays.

Today's free pick is in the NHL -- on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Flyers.  Pittsburgh is at home.  Sentiment is on the first place Flyers -- and has moved the line a bit, so there is decent line value on the Penguins.

Monday Free Pick - Score 4 (& 9 of 10) 3/28/11

We hope that you have been benefiting from our hot streak and will visit our blog regularly.  Today, we are going for 4 wins in a row (and 9 of our last 10 free plays).

We post to some forums as well, but will always post our "plays of the day" on our blog.  Our goal is to use contrarian methods and statistical biases to help sports bettors gain an edge in sports betting.  I have studied various approaches and post short articles from time to time on various topics, including:

• money management,
• betting tips, 
• sports betting biases
• and research results.

In today's sports marketplace, I am taking Atlanta over Washington in MLB spring training.  Atlanta is borderline pricey -- but has several biases that have proven to be successful in spring training (home team, superior team).  

Sunday Free Pick - March Madness Play 3/27/11

We're looking to continue our hot streak.  Going for 3 in a row today -- and trying for 8 of our last 9 free picks for our plays of the day.

I am taking the UNDER in  Kansas-VCU game.  Some huge line movement there -- the total moved from 142 all the way to 147.5.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 3/26/11

After the streak ended on Thursday, we started a new winning streak with yesterday's play on New Orleans in the NBA. New Orleans was a good line value play, with the line opening at NO +3 and moving all the way to +6.5 at some books. They turned out to be an outright winner.

Today, I am going with the Under in the NHL big salami. It's a big lineup for the NHL, with 12 games on Saturday. On a big day like this, the law of averages seems to weigh the unders down for the cumulative day.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/25/11

Well, our five-game winning streak is over, but our blog has been doing fairly well.  Let's get another winning streak going.  Today, I am going with a play in the NBA.

I like New Orleans over Phoenix.  There is some good line value, combined with visiting value and anti-public sentiment.  The line opened at NO +3 and has moved to +5 recently.

Thursday Free Pick - Pick Six (in a row!) 3/24/11

Our blog is going for six wins in a row today.  During this winning streak, our picks have been in MLB spring training, the NHL, and the NBA.  Today, our free pick of the day is in MLB once again.

I am taking San Fran in an evening game.  They are at home and the line has been pushed down so that they are just slight favorites.

Wednesday Free Pick - Strive for Five 3/23/11

We are going for five wins in a row on our blog.

Our play of the day is on Colorado over Seattle in MLB Spring Training.  Let's make it five in a row!

Tuesday Free Pick - Score Four 3/22/11

With yesterday's rainout in MLB spring training, we are again trying to "score four" wins in a row on our blog.

We are going with the Under in the NHL big salami today.  55 goals in 10 games.

Monday Free Pick - Score Four 3/21/11

Today, we're going for four wins in a row on the blog.

I am taking Cincy in MLB spring training.

Sunday Free Pick - Going for 3-in-a-row 3/20/11

Our blog's free picks / "play of the day" -- are going for 3 wins in a row.  Today we are going with the NHL over in the big salami.  Over 32.5 in 6 games.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 3/19/11

Trying to make it two games in a row on the blog.  Going with San Diego in MLB spring training.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/18/11

Today's play of the day is in the NBA.  I am going with Denver -- (Denver seems to be undervalued since the Carmelo trade).  They have been playing just fine -- but the value is giving them a big +6 points as visitors today.

Thursday Free Pick - Madness Pick 3/17/11

In honor of the start of March Madness, I am going with a college hoops play.  I am taking a big dog in NC Asheville + 18 over Pittsburgh.  I like the dog and the big points in a potentially low-scoring game.

The blog's free picks are going for 3 wins in a row.

NCAA Bracket Info

Here is some bracket information I have been looking at when completing my brackets. Have fun!

• This is a nice calculator from BracketScience. Some features are available for members only, but there's still some good info.
• Here are some probabilities generated by that U-Chicago pool I mentioned. The financial marketplace approach to the pool resulted in interesting and reasonable probabilities that can help differentiate your own brackets!!
• Some standouts from those probabilities:
• Florida State, a #10 seed = 55.6% to advance to next round
• Missouri, #11 = 59.8%
• Marquette #11 = 51.0%
• Old Dominion #9 = 57.8%
• Utah St #12 = 52.3%
• Michigan St #10 = 54.1%
• This NY Times article also shows some good probabilities.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 3/16/11

Trying for two in a row in MLB spring training.  I don't normally like this many favorites, so I might as well get it out of my system for spring training.  I am taking the Yankees today.  They are home, and -- much stronger than Baltimore.  The line has been pushed down a bit, so I like the value. 

I will take a look at some Final Four Bracket info before the big NCAA tournament.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training 3/15/11

I am taking the Mets today.  I like these biases: superior team -- at home -- during spring training.

Also - check out this Final Four Pool; it is run round by round -- and entries for the first round games are due Tuesday (tonight) at midnight.

Monday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training 3/14/11

I am staying with MLB Spring Training -- and going with the SF Giants.  Also -- if you haven't seen it, please check out my spring training biases, that was fairly popular yesterday.

Also -- check out this Final Four Pool.  At the least, it looks like the info could be useful in completing your brackets!  (...pricing can be used as probabilities of advancing to the next round...)

Final Four Pool

Check out this NCAA Men's Basketball bracket pool; it is run round-by-round -- and looks interesting (and there are prizes).  One of my friends is running it with a college financial markets class.

Point values for correct picks are determined by the actions of market participants.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training Pick & Biases 3/13/11

Today's play of the day is on the San Diego Padres.  This play fits many of the biases I have studied and researched for spring training.  The biases below are based on a real analysis of spring training data that goes back over several years and thousands of spring training games:

• Lean to home teams.  In addition to the regular reasons why home teams might have value -- this bias may be particularly true during spring training because some visiting players may not make a road trip (during meaningless spring training games).  And if that player happens to be a star player, we have value.
• Although some people think that spring training means nothing, there IS a correlation between regular season and spring training results -- so take a look at team "strength."
• Fading the public -- especially taking into account the above biases can add value as well.

Saturday Free Pick 3/12/11

Today, I am taking the Under in the NHL Big Salami.  As we near the stretch run in the NHL season, scoring has been coming down.  In addition, the weight of the "law of averages" makes the Under play stronger -- with a big NHL lineup today.  Under 55.5 in 10 game.

Friday Free Pick 3/11/11

Going with a college basketball play today.  San Jose St +14.5, a contrarian value:  big dog -- where public sentiment is on the big favorite.

Thursday Free Pick 3/10/11

I am going with a pick in MLB today: Pittsburgh at home over Baltimore.  Data suggests that there is value on home teams in spring training.  However, you still have to pay attention to the moneylines and grab value.

The line has been getting pushed down in favor of Pittsburgh -- but I think there is still value on the Pirates. The game is in the evening.

Wednesday Free Pick - 3/9/11

After reading the WSJ article earlier today (on big dogs for college hoops at this time of the season), it made me want to find a big underdog that the public hates.

I am going with Texas Tech +10 (and hoping for more later!) over Missouri.

WSJ, SportsInsights & Value

I like how the Wall Street Journal has been picking up on applying contrarian methods to the sports betting world.  They just came out with this article using SportsInsights' research on March Madness:

Fabrizio examined the final betting lines of every Division I college basketball game played in March or April since 2004 and monitored the bets taken by six popular online bookmakers. He determined when one team is favored by at least 16 points and receives more than 60% of the bets, the underdog covers the spread 56.5% of the time. The results are strikingly similar to those of another study Fabrizio performed in December, which examined the benefits of the contrarian investing technique to betting on NFL games. 

Please click here for the link to the article.

These contrarian sports investing methods often result in "ugly plays" (large underdogs!) -- but the data shows that there is value in applying contrarian methods not only to stocks -- but also to sports betting.  The typical sports bettor feels "bad" (and stupid) when the the ugly play gets blown out (which happens regularly) -- but more often than not, the point spread is able to help the "ugly pick" squeak by with a win ATS (against the spread).

Tuesday Free Pick - 3/8/11

Let's try and grab a win with a big dog in college hoops.  At this time of the season, big underdogs will surprise and cover the spread more often than not.

Taking an ugly play in Depaul (currently +14.5 and hopefully more later) over U-Conn.  

Monday Free Pick - 3/7/11

In the NBA tonight, there is big line movement in the Charlotte-LA Clipper Game.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Clippers who have won two games in a row -- over a Charlotte team that has lost four games in a row.  Both teams are banged up a bit with some injuries, but I like the line value on Charlotte.

Take Charlotte -- and you should be able to get at least +1.5 points -- decent value since the game opened at Charlotte -2 to -2.5.

Sunday Free Pick 3/6/11

In MLB Spring Training -- I like Houston at home -- getting some nice line value vs. the big, bad, Yankees. Just a reminder that although I DO like some of the strong teams to "rise" -- I always stress value.

Contrarian value is a key to lots of things!

Saturday Free Pick - 3/5/11

I am taking the UNDER in the NHL Big Salami today. Under 56.5 in 10 games.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 3/4/11

I like San Diego today in spring training.  A slight dog -- but a superior team.  Even if it IS spring training, I like the value.

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 3/3/11

Today's free pick is in the NHL. Public sentiment is hugely on the Boston Bruins at home, and this has moved the line tremendously, yielding some nice line value on visiting Tampa Bay.

Let's make it two winning picks in a row!

Wednesday's Free Pick - MLB 3/2/11

Following the line of thinking yesterday (although Texas lost), I am taking Minny in MLB spring training today.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB & Spring Training 3/1/11

In honor of spring training starting up, today's play of the day is in MLB. Although the games are not "for real" -- I believe that the actual talent is correlated to results -- and that the numbers do mean something. For example, check last year's article out on spring training from one of my friends (flagged San Francisco as a potential winner based on last year's spring training).

We got on the right track with a win in yesterday's free pick. Today, I am taking the Texas Rangers +110 in spring training.