- Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
- The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
- In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
- A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
- Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
- The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
- Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
- The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Friday, December 24, 2010
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
How can we capture the inherent returns of the sports market? One method is to use a contrarian approach and bet against the public to capture value. This is one reason why we collect and study "betting percentages" from several major online sports books. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of the market action - and carve out the performance of the "general public."
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
- Home / away (schedule) impacts results,
- Results vary a bit by sport (some sports are more "random" than others.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
- MLB is still the "National Past-time."
- Although the NFL is hugely popular, there are many more games in the MLB schedule.
- Baseball also seemingly has more randomness to the sport. For instance, NFL champions often go 14-2 (.875) or 13-3 (.813) -- while the best teams in MLB play about .600 ball.
- The point spread is a great equalizer -- as is the moneyline. However, I believe that many sports fans don't understand the moneyline very well -- and instead, count up their wins and losses (and wonder why their bankroll is decreasing).
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Monday, February 1, 2010
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
- Covers.com is a great website. Lots of content and articles, some of the best sports betting forums on the internet -- and great stats. In particular, this is the first site I go to when I want to study value and performance against the spread.
- Sportsinsights.com is also a site I use a lot. Their betting percentages and research are great tools. I use their betting percentages to get a feel for "public perception" and "public sentiment." These are some of the best tools out there -- and after years studying the sports gambling world -- might be one of the best edges available. The edge is not much -- but it is "real."