We are going for three wins in a row today. Our preferences in the NHL & NBA finals dragged us down a a bit, but we have been red-hot in baseball. We're going with an unusual pick today.
We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games. We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today. The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds. The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.
Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track. Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season. We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.
You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.