2013 US Open - Men's Final

In the Men's Final, I see some good value on Novak Djokovic.  Rafael Nadal has been ridiculously hot, but also sometimes inconsistent (like the first round loss at Wimbledon) since his return from injury.  Historically, based on their styles of play, Djokovic is a better player on hard courts.

Djoko is a slight underdog because Nadal has been so hot.  We like that value and see Djokovic as an undervalued number one seed.  Some bettors might like to take the +120 that we have seen on Djoko, while others may prefer the spread (typically based on sets, sometimes on games).

It should be a great match.  Enjoy!  

2012 NBA Finals

I like Miami in the NBA finals.  With Oklahoma City up one game to none (winning at home), there is also additional value on a futures/series play.

In Game 1, Miami led for much of the game, until OKC's big run at the end of the 3rd quarter.  Although OKC is favored, we like the value on Miami.  Miami's defense, experience in last year's finals -- to me -- makes them a better overall team.  We will see -- but I am on Miami!

Here's the "Who Will Win" analysis that I like:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/





























   

Monday Free Pick - Monday Night Football 12/12/11

On Monday Night Football, I like St. Louis with the +10.5 points.  St. Louis has been miserable scoring points this year, but Seattle -- giving double digit points -- yields some solid value.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 9/9/11

We like the Phillies in tonight's game.  The Phils are one of the great teams in recent baseball history -- and getting them as slight favorites, although on the road, is a good value.  Halladay goes up against Marcum -- but we like the Phillies in this potential playoff preview.  Marcum has been red-hot lately, leading to some value on the Phillies!

Tuesday Free Pick - Score Four 7/26

We're going for four wins in a row today, with a play on Cleveland, at home, with young pitching stud J. Tomlin on the mound.  He's going up against Jer. Weaver -- so it will be a tough game -- but because of Weaver's name, we think there is value on Cleveland.   - jc

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/15/11

Today, we are going against the surprising Pirates -- and taking Houston and Myers, at home.  SportsInsights had a good mid-season update and noted that the Pirates have been the best team ATS so far this season.  We think that the Pirates are over-valued at this point -- and like Houston at home.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/8/11

We're going with one of the games with the heaviest betting action: the Red Sox-Oriole game.  Bosox pitcher Beckett has been "on fire" this season, with an ERA of around 2.00.  His record is 7-3.  We're going to use this as a potential way to get value, on the lowly Orioles.  The O's have a good, young pitcher in Zach Britton going for them.  To "even" the odds up a bit, you can take the run-line if you like.  Otherwise you can get about +200 odds.   - jc & cb

Sunday Free Pick - Tennis 7/3/11

We are going with a tennis play today.  We like red-hot Djokovic, who has gone an amazing 47-1 this season -- and was taken the number one ranking in the world from Nadal.  The surface favors Djokovic, and he is a slight underdog.  It should be a great match.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/2/11

We are going with one of our old picks -- Houston and Happ -- a good, solid pitcher.  Baseball is often difficult to put together a long winning streak because value is often on moneyline underdogs.  We like the value on Happ, at home, against the Red Sox.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/29/11

In a Texas inter-league match-up, we're taking Houston, at home, with Myers on the mound -- over Texas and Lewis on the mound.  There's some "juicy" money-line odds on Houston, that we believe is value over the long-term.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/11/11

We'll stay in MLB and we're taking Cuncy and Leake.  We don't like going up against Lincy much -- but getting Cincy with Leake on the mound at around +150 is a solid value (even if they are on the road).

Wednesday Free Pick - NHL 6/8/11

We'll look to stay hot -- and will go with Vancouver at Boston in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  In the last game, Boston came out with urgency and crushed the Canucks.  Tonight, I think we will see the reverse -- and Vancouver will want to re-take a 2-game lead in the series.  Take Vancouver as a visiting underdog -- as a good value after their blowout loss in Game 3.

Monday Free Pick - NHL 6/6/11

We're going with Vancouver today, in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals (this is for 3 wins in a row).  We like the plus moneyline odds -- because Vancouver is visiting Boston.  We think they will move closer to the championship.  Sentiment is on Boston at home, giving us additional value.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 6/4/11

We're going with the over in the NHL today. The low-scoring Game One may have created some value -- unless it takes 59 minutes plus to score in this game! With the Over set at 5, we have a good safe "spot" at the 5. -jb & cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/1/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. Today, we are going with a good, live, young arm -- in 26-year old Josh Tomlin. He has a lifetime 1.1 WHIP and is pitching for first place Cleveland.

We like youth, and the upside (value) of Tomlin -- on a potentially under-rated Indian team -- and especially the plus moneyline odds on Cleveland, visiting Toronto.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 5/30/11

Today, we are taking the Reds with Woods on the mound.  The Reds have been in a bit of a slump, and public sentiment is on the visiting Brewers.  We like the value on Cincy at home, with one of their good, young pitchers on the mound.  - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 5/27/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. We like the Yankees today, as a very slight dog against a hot new rookie pitcher. Seattle pitcher Michael Pineda is just 22 years old but has a career record of 6-2 and 2.16 ERA -- and a 0.94 WHIP.

Seattle is at home -- but the weak-hitting Mariners face the heavy-hitting Yankees with veteran AJ Burnett on the mound. We like the Yankees as slight dogs most of the time. - jc & cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB (Happ-y) 5/24/11

We believe there is value on Houston and Happ, pitching at home.  After a rough start to the season, Happ has returned to his solid form -- and career ERA in the mid-3's.  Billingsley is always tough --- but we think the pitching match-up is fairly close, with Happ pitching better of late.  Combine this with Houston at home against a weak-hitting Dodgers team -- and an undervalued Happ -- and we have a good value play.  - cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 5/20/11

I am taking the Mets as a large dog -- the NY-NY rivalry is strong and anything can happen when the Mets and Yankees meet for a "Subway Series."  The line has been pushed up to almost -200 on the Yankees -- so I like the line value on Dickey -- who can be tricky (and is slightly undervalued currently).  - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 5/17/11

Yesterday's 19-run outburst by Cleveland over KC put an end to our winning streak (with a loss for our Grand Salami play).  This happens sometimes, but the weight of the Unders often lets us eke out wins with our MLB salami plays.

Today, we are going with the Mets & Niese -- at home against a hot Nolasco.  I don't love the pitching match-up -- but do believe that there is value based on Noly being red-hot and Niese, a solid pitcher, starting the season a little slowly ("ugly" value).  The Mets are at home and have been playing better as of late.