Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Derek Jeter -- value prop play

Just a fun play if you are interested.  I don't like futures/props very much (time value of money) -- but this play seemed like a good value.  Jeter is struggling -- and there are props on "when Jeter will get his 3,000th hit."  I was able to get 2-1 odds for June 21st or after.

With Jeter struggling:

  • he may move down in the lineup, meaning fewer at bats.  
  • In addition, although an all-time great, players often decline in terms of batting average with age.
  • Public sentiment is on Jeter; he is a beloved player in deep-pocketed NYC -- and well-respected, in general.  
  • Thus, I think there is value on the play of getting the hit on the latter side...