March Madness Finals (4/8/13)

I am taking Michigan plus the points in tonight's College Basketball final.  Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball -- and has a dangerous 3-point FG percentage.  Several of my sources -- and I -- expect this game to be a tossup, so I love getting the dog plus four points.

One of the analysts that I follow, the "Who Will Win" authors have this as their prediction:

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Link: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2013/04/ncaa-mens-championship-game-2013.html

Some Good Info for Your NCAA Brackets

Here are results for the Round of 64 in the Big NCAA Tournament.  I am using these historical odds in combination with point spreads for my first round picks.

Starting at Seed 5 and lower, the better seed is 66% or less to win their first round game!
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnsAr9S-QB_AdEdmWm9QTTRfTVhER0ZGTUlYb3F2RGc#gid=0

Super Bowl 47

The big game is approaching, and I will be on the San Francisco 49ers.  Some analysts point to the Ravens' momentum, but I don't see that besides a few big wins in the playoffs.  Anything can happen in a small sample size, but I believe we'll see a reversion to the mean -- and see a blowout win for the 49ers.

San Francisco has been consistently good this season, and I believe we may see a blowout win like we used to see in the 80's and 90's.  Here are some books I have helped to write.