Wednesday Free Pick - NCAAB 12/7/11

We're taking a rare favorite today -- but we like how the line has declined.  The researchers at Sports Insights like visitors in several sports, including college basketball.  We don't normally like favorites, but we like the betting trend on visitors, combined with line value: Temple -11.5.  

Saturday Free Pick - CF 10/8/11

It's a busy college football day -- so we will go with a play on perhaps the biggest game of the day: OK at Texas.  We like Texas at home getting +11 points.  The public does not -- so we are seeing some line value and line movement.

Please check out my book on some of the betting trends I look at:

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/28/11

We like the Mets at home in this year-end MLB game.  There is nice line value for the Mets -- and there is extra motivation playing at home near the end of the season.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/21/11

We're going with a good contrarian value play in baseball today -- we're taking Oakland over Texas as a live home dog in a late game.  The betting percentages are huge on Texas, giving us a bit of line value.  

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 9/8/11

We're taking the UNDER in the NFL season opener.  The line has edged upwards -- giving us some line value.  We like the under with the Green Bay defense -- and a Saints offense that hasn't been the same since their Super Bowl.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/6/11

We're going to take Colorado and Hammel today.  There is decent line value based on public sentiment on the visiting Arizona D-Backs.

Thursday Free Pick - College Football 9/1/11

College football is here!  We're taking a big dog at home -- Memphis + 31 points over Miss. St.  Due to public sentiment, there is about 3 points of line value.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/30/11

We like the line value on Seattle tonight in a late game over the Angels.  Public sentiment is on LAA, and the line has moved 10 pts.  Take the Mariners and Vasquez at home with the plus odds and line movement/value. 

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/9/11

LAA ace Haren is going up against the Yankees today.  Although the Yankees are at home, we like the line value (LAA moved from a very slight dog to a larger dog with line value of about +15 from the Pinnacle open).  We'll go with Haren and his 12-6 record and 0.97 WHIP.  We also like betting against the big public teams like the Yankees.   jc & cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB 8/8/11

Today, we are going with an ugly play -- but we are making use of the home bias -- and taking the O's at home against the CWS.  Line value also comes into play, so grab the value on the O's.  - jc

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 8/7/11

We are taking another home, value play -- with Florida grabbing some line value against the visiting Cards.  This game is seeing relatively heavy betting action, so watch the line -- and grab if the line looks to be reverting back towards Florida.  

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 8/4/11

Yesterday, the line value play (based on public sentiment) got us back on the right track -- and we're going with a similar play today.  We're taking a pitcher we have gone with lately -- P Humber and the CWS at home -- against the "mighty" Yankees.  Most people like the Yankees, and the line has been bid up -- so grab the line value.  You may want to watch the line -- as steady betting on the Yankees could create even more value.  -jc

****

With football season coming up -- sales of my book have been increasing again.  Last year was a standout year for college football & the NFL.  Please click on my book to the left for more information about the NFL book (and links to the NCAA Football book).

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/3/11

Today, we are going with Lyles on the mound for Houston at home.  Public opinion is strongly on the Reds with D. Willis on the mound -- and we like the line movement and live value due to everyone jumping on the Reds.  Take Houston at home and the nice + odds.    - jc

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/27/11

Weaver put a stop to our winning streak with a tight 2-1 pitcher's duel last night.  Today, we're looking to stay hot with the Mets and Pelfrey, visiting the Reds.  Public sentiment is strongly on the Reds, so the line has jumped a bit towards the Reds.  We like that line value.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 7/24/11

We like the line value in the Pittsburgh game. The line has moved from Pittsburgh as a very slight dog to Pittsburgh +110 and +112 at many books. We like that kind of value for the surprising Pirates -- at home -- and Morton, who is in his prime years. Lohse -- and his 1.1 WHIP and 3.44 ERA -- is on the mound for the Cardinals. - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 7/19/11

We're going with a common name: HAPP on the mound for Houston.  Happ has underperformed this season -- and we hope that he'll show us a glimpse of what is still a lifetime ERA of below 4.00.  Grab the line movement value and Happ at home.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/18/11

The Tampa Bay-Yankee game is seeing some heavy one-sided betting action -- and we like the line value on the Rays.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Yankees -- so we'll grab the value on TB at home -- against big-name AJ Burnett.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 6/26/11

We're going with a seemingly ugly play, taking Pittsburgh over the Red Sox in inter-league play.  However, this play has valued based on a few angles:

• Pittsburgh is at home,
• McDonald is underperforming his career stats and has some decent upside.
• The Red Sox starter, A Miller, has yet to prove himself, and has struggled. 
• Because of public sentiment, the line is moving in the direction of the Red Sox -- so we are getting additional line value.  -cb & jc

Wednesday Free Pick - NHL 6/15/11

Today is the last day of NHL action -- so we're using this opportunity to take Vancouver at home -- at decent line value after Boston man-handled the Canucks once again (in Game 6).  Sports fans remember recent action -- and the line has been pushed down dramatically because of some of the Bruins' blowout wins.  The series could really go either way -- but I think this one has solid value with Vancouver, at home, to "do it" when it counts.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/12/11

We're going back to the well and taking Miami in Game 6 of the NBA finals.  We think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.  We're going with LeBron and Miami at home.  Things have gone Dallas' way the past few games in Dallas -- and the betting public has driven the line down from Miami -6/-5.5 down to -4.5.

We'll keep an eye on the point spread and grab that line value at some point. We're hoping to extend our winning streak to three games in a row.