NBA Finals - 2013

I like the Miami Heat for many reasons.  Although some are comparing two great players, Lebron James is in his prime -- and will most likely go down in history as one of the very all-time greats.  I believe that Lebron James will lead his team to another title.  Miami is hurting a bit, but the age of the Spurs makes up for this.

I like the Heat in 5 games, although I enjoyed the probabilities in this article:
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/keeping-score-key-statistics-favor-heat/

I would also take the Heat vs. the spread as I believe that there is value.

2012 NBA Finals

I like Miami in the NBA finals.  With Oklahoma City up one game to none (winning at home), there is also additional value on a futures/series play.

In Game 1, Miami led for much of the game, until OKC's big run at the end of the 3rd quarter.  Although OKC is favored, we like the value on Miami.  Miami's defense, experience in last year's finals -- to me -- makes them a better overall team.  We will see -- but I am on Miami!

Here's the "Who Will Win" analysis that I like:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/





























   

Home Field Advantage

This article discusses home field advantage (although not ATS).  My research shows that in some sports, there is an edge for contrarian methods AND home field advantage (like in baseball and college football).  However, in some sports, visitors have the edge ATS (like in the NBA).

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/articles/2011/09/03/in_sports_there_really_is_no_place_like_home/?s_campaign=8315

It’s a big deal. Statistics show that Major League Baseball teams win 54 percent of their home games. The benefit is even higher in other sports, according to the economist who compiled the figures. In the NHL the home teams win 57 percent of the time, in the NFL it’s 58 percent, and in the NBA it’s 62 percent.

What’s so great about being at home?

Tobias J. Moskowitz, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, ran decades of numbers in an effort to explain the well-known phenomenon, and he concluded that the single biggest contributor is - get ready to start booing - officiating bias by umpires and referees, unintentional though it may be.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/12/11

We're going back to the well and taking Miami in Game 6 of the NBA finals.  We think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.  We're going with LeBron and Miami at home.  Things have gone Dallas' way the past few games in Dallas -- and the betting public has driven the line down from Miami -6/-5.5 down to -4.5.

We'll keep an eye on the point spread and grab that line value at some point. We're hoping to extend our winning streak to three games in a row.

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 6/9/11

I am staying with Miami in the NBA finals today.  I think that a great player like LeBron James will bounce back -- and it appears that some of the big money agrees, based on some of the steam moves in the point spread.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/5/11

I am going with Miami once again in the NBA Finals, Game 3. The series moves to Dallas now, so Miami is getting +2.5 points. The line opened at +3, but our line analysis shows that more of the "bigger bettors" are taking Miami plus the points. - jc & cb

Thursday Free Pick - NBA (Score 4) 6/2/11

Not much baseball action today. We are going for four wins a row -- and will go back to the NBA finals and pick the Heat. They finished game one strongly -- and the point spread is the same: -4.5. We'll give the points as the triumvirate make their way to the championship. - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - NBA Finals 5/31/11

We're looking to stay on the winning side with a play on Game One of the NBA Finals. We like the analysis on the "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog (which point to Miami) -- and our models and methods also like Miami in the first game of the series.

Also -- whenever the playoffs heat up -- there's also good coverage on some of our favorite sites.

• Covers has a good article on the Miami-Dallas match-up -- and some of the betting trends point to Dallas.

• SportsInsights currently has betting leaning towards Dallas, so the contrarian in me likes Miami that much more.

I took Miami to win the series as well, because the numbers are not very steep. - jc & cb

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 5/26/11

We're looking to continue our winning ways and are going with Miami to wrap up the semifinals over Chicago today. The line opened with Chicago, at home, being favored by -2 or -2.5 points. The line has been pushed up to 3 -- and we like that line value, combined with a Miami Heat team that may smell blood. We'll take the Heat plus the points. - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - NBA 5/13/11

The pendulum has swung the other way -- and the public is no longer in love with Memphis.  Public sentiment is now strongly on Oklahoma City -- and has decreased the line just a bit.

We'll take Memphis -1.5 -- to extend the series.

Monday Free Pick - NBA 5/9/11

I am on the Celtics today -- with big line movement giving the Celtics +1.5 at home. There are a lot of naysayers -- and the Celtics may not be able to "do it again..." -- but I like the line value.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 5/8/11

We had a nice Saturday, with our regular free play winning -- and our Pac-man boxing play hitting at just under 2-1 odds (for the decision, without a knockout).

Today, we are on Dallas in the NBA.  They are slight favorites -- but public sentiment is still on the Lakers and Kobe -- as big-name favorites.  I like the value on Dallas; they have been a top performer during the playoffs -- and had the same record as the Lakers int he regular season.  Take Dallas at home...

Happy Mother's Day!

NBA Betting Tips

I thought this was a good article by SportsInsights.  Some good info and betting tips.

Below are some betting tips that came to mind when looking at last night’s results.

• We often talk about playoffs, games on national TV, and other “big games” — where the edge in sports investing and contrarian value seems to be magnified.  Here is a SportsInsights article on this “big game” trend (as well as other betting tips).

• The lines are often biased against the public to increase sportsbook profit margins; the link points to aneconomist’s view of “how and why” point spreads are shaded.

• Point spreads are often “sharp” — so that if you “Shop for the best line” — you can improve your results.  Last night’s Memphis-San Antonio game is a prime example.  If you shopped for the best line, you would either push or beat the point spread, depending on your side.  The line was waffling between Memphis +6.5 and +7 — and the game landed on +7.

For the whole article:
http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/04/sports-betting-tips-nba-sportsinsights/

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/28/11

With so many underdogs covering during this year's NBA playoffs, I like the line movement and value on Portland today.  Sometimes the pendulum swings too far -- and you can obtain value going against extreme trends.

Portland faces elimination against Dallas -- and with Portland at home, and the public on Dallas -- I think Portland is a good play.  The line opened with Portland favored by -4.5 -- and the sentiment has reduced the spread to -4.  I am watching the line and hoping to get Portland -3.5 or better.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 4/22/11

I am going to be on the Celtics tonight.  The line has grown so that the Celtics are receiving +3.5 points.  I like the value -- and think there is a good chance the Celtics win outright.

NBA & NHL Playoff Betting Tips

Here are some bettng tips and some interesting information on the NBA and NHL playoffs.  First, in the NBA:

• I generally like big underdogs -- and the NBA playoffs are no exception.  
• SportsInsights recently commented on big dogs in the NBA playoffs (and their solid performance so far in the playoffs).
• With the dogs making such a strong showing, there's a chance that the pendulum has swung too far.  I will be looking to see if the favorites are showing some hints of (surprising) value.  

In the NHL:

• Early low-scoring and hard-checking playoff games have given way to more scoring over recent games.  The pendulum swings both ways and you have to keep an eye on value.  The Big Salami totals have shrunken, leading to potential value again on the Over.
• In the NHL, there is a bias to visitors -- and we will be watching this trend as the playoff series extend.  That is, heavy home favorites (for the higher-rated seeds) are switching to games that are more "even" as the lower-rated seeds get home ice.  
• I will be watching for value on visitors in these "closer" games.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 4/17/11

We are looking to get back to our winning ways -- with a pick in the NBA playoffs.  We are taking a rare favorite -- the Celtics -6 -- because it looks like the Celtics are undervalued in this game.

We love the stats at Covers.com -- particularly their ATS records, as well as margin of victory and other key indicators.  Some reasons we love the Celtics over the Knicks (minus the points) today:

• My "simple probabilistic model" shows that the Celtics, at home, should be favored closer to double-digit points in this game. 
• ATS records show that the Knicks outperformed this season -- but came back to earth a bit by the end of the season.
• The betting is fairly split -- which is unusual when a team is favored by this much.  To me, this means that the public is leaning towards the Knicks.
• Since the Carmelo trade the general public -- and deep-pocketed NY fans -- HAS overvalued the Knicks. 

We took the Celtics and gave the 6 points.  

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/7/11

How often can you get the Celtics +4.5 points -- and as a value play?  (Going for two in a row today on our blog; thanks for visiting!).

I like the Celtics plus the points in this playoff preview against the Bulls.  The oddsmakers finally seem to be catching up with the Chicago Bulls, who still have a great record ATS -- but have been struggling recently ATS.  Over their past 10 games, they are 4-6 ATS -- while winning the vast majority of their games.  I love the stats at Covers.com with respect to ATS data and statistics.

I am watching the line and hope it gets driven up further.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/25/11

Well, our five-game winning streak is over, but our blog has been doing fairly well.  Let's get another winning streak going.  Today, I am going with a play in the NBA.

I like New Orleans over Phoenix.  There is some good line value, combined with visiting value and anti-public sentiment.  The line opened at NO +3 and has moved to +5 recently.

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/18/11

Today's play of the day is in the NBA.  I am going with Denver -- (Denver seems to be undervalued since the Carmelo trade).  They have been playing just fine -- but the value is giving them a big +6 points as visitors today.