Some Good Info for Your NCAA Brackets

Here are results for the Round of 64 in the Big NCAA Tournament.  I am using these historical odds in combination with point spreads for my first round picks.

Starting at Seed 5 and lower, the better seed is 66% or less to win their first round game!
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnsAr9S-QB_AdEdmWm9QTTRfTVhER0ZGTUlYb3F2RGc#gid=0

2012 NCAA Championship Game

In tonight's game, I like Kentucky to win the championship, and locked in Kentucky -6.  Both teams are powerhouses -- and some say that Kentucky is one of the best in history.  I wouldn't argue with that because Kentucky excels on both sides of the court -- with excellent FG% and Three-point shooting % -- as well as the same stats on the defensive side.

Sports Insights' betting percentages point to Kansas as a contrarian play, and there is some slight line value based on the opening line -- but we grabbed the -6 to prevent any further line slippage.

On championship games, we also like the "Who Will Win" analysis -- which points to Kentucky as well.

Fading Kentucky -- March Madness is here!

March Madness is here -- and even the conference championship games has us fired up!  We loved this analysis by Sports Insights -- and will be fading Kentucky tonight.  Take the big points and fade Kentucky -- and hope Georgia can stay with top-ranked Kentucky.

I helped to put together a paper for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference that starts tomorrow.  You can find the paper here.

Wednesday Free Pick - 3/9/11

After reading the WSJ article earlier today (on big dogs for college hoops at this time of the season), it made me want to find a big underdog that the public hates.

I am going with Texas Tech +10 (and hoping for more later!) over Missouri.

Sunday Free Pick: NCAAB 2/20/11

The streak has ended -- so let's start another one.  I'm going with a surprising (to some) play by going with Ohio State.  I believe they are worthy of a # 1 seed in the big tournament -- but they need to step it up and defend that place.  Time to pick it up!  Ohio State + 1 at Purdue.

Saturday Free Pick - Lucky 7 2/19/11

The streak continues...  Our blog's picks have won 6 in a row -- and we're going for a "lucky 7" today.

We're going with one of our "ugly plays" -- by taking Colorado +15.5 visiting Kansas in NCAA Hoops.  There's some decent value on this seemingly ugly pick -- and we're hoping for some additional line value if the public pushes the point spread up.

Friday Free Pick - Pick Six? 2/18/11

Our winning pick on Thursday brings our blog's recent streak to 5 wins in a row -- so we are going for a "Pick Six" -- 6 in a row, that is.   I have been on a roll lately, but remember to "bet with your head" and use good money management.  I won't make any claims that I will win the equivalent of 60% of the time (equivalent because of the impact of moneyline bets).

However, the methods I use should help sports handicappers overcome the vig.  Please also visit one of my more popular posts on sports betting tips.

Today's sports action is particularly light -- even for a Friday at this time of the year -- because of the NBA's All-Star break.  In today's sports betting action, I like:  Dartmouth +11.5 over Columbia.  Public sentiment is on the big favorite -- so there looks to be some value on Dartmouth.  I also always like getting some "meaty" action in terms of points, and the +11.5 (hopefully more later) gives us that "value."

We'll go with Dartmouth as our "pick six" play.  Thanks for reading!

Wednesday Free Pick - NCAA Basketball 2/16/11

We're going for four wins in a row on our blog -- with a big visiting dog in NCAA Basketball: Iowa State getting +11 visiting Texas A&M.

Saturday Free Pick - NCAA Hoops 2/12/11

With today's busy college basketball schedule, we're going with a pick in NCAA Hoops.  We like St. Louis, getting double-digit points, with public sentiment on Richmond, big-time.  There looks like there is some good value on the visiting dog here.

Our "ugly play" on the NHL Devils won last night.

Tuesday Free Pick NCAAB - 2/8/11

Today's free pick is in college basketball. We'll take a big dog, So Ill + 16, visiting Wichita State in NCAA hoops. The total is fairly low in this game (at 127), so covering the 16 could be tight for the favorite.

Saturday Free Pick 2/5/11

We'll be back with more Super Bowl coverage later today and tomorrow.  For our free pick of the day, we like St. Louis over Xavier in NCAA hoops.  We like double-digit underdogs, and don't mind if they are visitors.

St. Louis +11

Tuesday, 1/25/11 Free Pick - NCAA Hoops

In today's sports betting action, I like a play in college basketball. The Seton Hall-Syracuse game is a big game, with visiting Seton hall getting double-digit points. Public sentiment is on Syracuse, so there is contrarian value on the visitors plus the big points. Based on research I have done, it appears that currently: visitors are undervalued - compared to home teams in NCAA Hoops, at least against the spread.