Thursday Free Pick - MLB 9/22/11

We are going with Toronto over LAA tonight.  This game is one of the heaviest-bet games and there is some line value because of the lopsided-betting action on the Angels.  Take Toronto as a home dog.

We also thought these power ratings were interesting:

NFL Betting Systems -- Playoffs

I recently noticed that one of my more popular blog posts -- is the mention about my book on "NFL Betting Systems," available at Amazon. The post is at this link:

http://jimceesports.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-book-on-nfl-betting-systems.html

In the book, I collaborated with SportsInsights and used an academic approach to study long-term data and NFL betting systems. There are some variations and methods that seemed to work even better for the NFL playoffs.

With tomorrow's NFL Conference Championships coming up fast, I wanted to highlight some indicators and betting systems that I use for the NFL Playoffs:

• As always, I look at public sentiment.
• I also weigh public opinion against the media and "big" stories that can sway the public and create value.
• NFL regular season performance can, of course, tell a lot about how strong a team really is: how good is the defense, how have they done against quality opponents?
• Line movement and live value can be a good indicator. Sometimes, we grab the line value, and sometimes, on small line movements, we like to follow what the syndicates may be doing.

The parity in today's NFL makes for some interesting results. Just think of the Jets taking out the Patriots after getting whipped just a few weeks earlier!

I will post my NFL picks later today.

Sunday - a look at the NFL & NBA

Yesterday's Steelers game was a classic -- and that kind of "randomness" that decides games is what makes sports fun -- but is also a reason why sports betting and gambling is not a sure thing. The game could have gone either way -- especially against the spread. We just try to put the numbers and probabilities on our side.

In today's NFL playoff games, we already mentioned that we like the Patriots. In the other NFL game, we think it is interesting how the media and public suddenly likes Seattle's "Cinderella story." We lean to Chicago - and love them at home - but we don't like giving up the -10 points. Value is all about public perception, and we think Seattle has captured the attention of sports fans with their win over the Saints last week. In addition, power rankings (mentioned previously) favor the Bears.

It's a light day in the NBA, but the LA Clipper-LA Laker game caught our eye. The Lakers are having a great season -- but we often study stats at Covers (especially "against the spread" stats, to get a handle on over/undervaluation) -- and the Lakers have been a public team (overvalued) all season.

NFL this weekend 1/15/11

I like New England and Pittsburgh this weekend in the NFL... I think that New England is an absolute "monster" this year and that the Jets earned some respect by beating an aging Indy last week. This "respect" potentially evened out the "bubble of overvaluation" surrounding Tom Brady's Patriots.

Pittsburgh also looks like a good play, based on public sentiment, and line value.

Below are some interesting links that you may find useful at SportsInsights.

SportsInsights NFL Marketwatch column

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/nfl/market-watch/2010/week19-betting-trends.aspx

I like this set of power ratings they worked up...

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/nfl/playoffs/2011.aspx