Home Field Advantage

This article discusses home field advantage (although not ATS).  My research shows that in some sports, there is an edge for contrarian methods AND home field advantage (like in baseball and college football).  However, in some sports, visitors have the edge ATS (like in the NBA).

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/articles/2011/09/03/in_sports_there_really_is_no_place_like_home/?s_campaign=8315

It’s a big deal. Statistics show that Major League Baseball teams win 54 percent of their home games. The benefit is even higher in other sports, according to the economist who compiled the figures. In the NHL the home teams win 57 percent of the time, in the NFL it’s 58 percent, and in the NBA it’s 62 percent.

What’s so great about being at home?

Tobias J. Moskowitz, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, ran decades of numbers in an effort to explain the well-known phenomenon, and he concluded that the single biggest contributor is - get ready to start booing - officiating bias by umpires and referees, unintentional though it may be.

NBA Betting Tips

I thought this was a good article by SportsInsights.  Some good info and betting tips.

Below are some betting tips that came to mind when looking at last night’s results.

• We often talk about playoffs, games on national TV, and other “big games” — where the edge in sports investing and contrarian value seems to be magnified.  Here is a SportsInsights article on this “big game” trend (as well as other betting tips).

• The lines are often biased against the public to increase sportsbook profit margins; the link points to aneconomist’s view of “how and why” point spreads are shaded.

• Point spreads are often “sharp” — so that if you “Shop for the best line” — you can improve your results.  Last night’s Memphis-San Antonio game is a prime example.  If you shopped for the best line, you would either push or beat the point spread, depending on your side.  The line was waffling between Memphis +6.5 and +7 — and the game landed on +7.

For the whole article:
http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/04/sports-betting-tips-nba-sportsinsights/

Baseball Betting Biases & Tips

Opening Day has arrived.  Here are some sources of info that I follow regularly.

• Covers always has great sports betting coverage, and here's an article that has some basic tips (follow streaks, pay attention to who is playing/out of lineup, bullpens, money management).
• SportsInsights just came out with an update to their regular series of articles on "betting against the public."  Some good academic research, info and guidelines (fade public, betting % guidelines, home teams appear undervalued).    
• I also like this spring training analysis that was published in the NY Times from "Who Will Win?" -- and will use it for potential value early in the season.  

Please visit my blog regularly for free plays of the day and betting tips that can help with your sports handicapping.  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training Pick & Biases 3/13/11

Today's play of the day is on the San Diego Padres.  This play fits many of the biases I have studied and researched for spring training.  The biases below are based on a real analysis of spring training data that goes back over several years and thousands of spring training games:

• Lean to home teams.  In addition to the regular reasons why home teams might have value -- this bias may be particularly true during spring training because some visiting players may not make a road trip (during meaningless spring training games).  And if that player happens to be a star player, we have value.
• Although some people think that spring training means nothing, there IS a correlation between regular season and spring training results -- so take a look at team "strength."
• Fading the public -- especially taking into account the above biases can add value as well.

Sportsinsights Highlights

Thanks for visiting my blog.  I post free picks -- in a sort of "play of the day" format -- and have been doing decently.  I also post articles related to sports betting from time to time.  Today, I wanted to highlight one of my favorite sports betting websites (Sportsinsights.com), especially because their blog helped me to pick up two units last night.  (The big NBA games: Boston-Chicago; Nuggets)

Some of my favorite sports-related links are at the bottom of this blog.  (My blog reading list is posted on the right-hand-side.)  Sportsinsights is my favorite site because I believe they offer a "real edge" in the sports gambling arena.  They collect and analyze betting lines from several real offshore sportsbooks.  More importantly, they have access to betting percentages that can be used to "poll" public sentiment and get an idea where contrarian line value might exist.

I have known the guys at Sportsinsights for many years -- and think they are stand-up guys.  Full disclosure: I have even done some research with Sportsinsights data and collaborated on their series of books.  I have performed solid academic research and have shown that a contrarian approach to sports betting provides an edge (at a statistically significant level).  Their "square plays" and "best bets" perform decently and are "true" pre-published results.

Unfortunately, even Sportsinsights does not claim to have some magic formula.  Many of their approaches are in the 53%-56% level.  However, I would rather take a small -- but real -- edge, than have my head in the clouds...  

I DO try to improve results with other handicapping methods -- but that's for another blog post.

NFL Conference Championships 1/22/11

In this weekend's games, I am trying to balance factors from a few areas. From my book (see earlier post today), I use an academic and scientific approach to study certain factors and find factors that yield an edge with statistical significance. Some of these factors seem stronger during the NFL playoffs. I also try to consider public sentiment (as always), and other interesting angles such as match-ups and/or traditional handicapping methods.

In the AFC game, I view the Jets as a "Seattle-plus." You may recall that Seattle snuck into the playoffs -- and after a huge win against the Saints -- were beaten fairly easily by a decent (but not great) Chicago Bear squad. The Jets had a good regular season (better in the first half) -- and coasted into the playoffs. The Jets got by an aging Colts team and then played a huge "revenge game" against bitter division rival, the Patriots (who crushed them a few weeks earlier).

Can the Jets play yet another motivated game against the Steelers on the road? The Jets and coach Rex Ryan are generating a lot of media and fan interest. Perhaps the Jets are really that good -- and can sweep a third week in a row against the likes of the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers. But I am not buying the hype -- and am taking the Steelers and giving the -3.5 points.

On the NFC side, this is a great game and a huge NFC North divisional match-up. I just believe -- and the numbers back me up - that the Packers are superior on both sides of the ball. The Bears quietly put together a better record, but Aaron Rodgers has developed into an elite QB who avoids hurting his team. Games are often decided by mistakes, and I like this factor (avoiding mistakes) that one of my favorite blogs talks about a lot. I don't like giving this many points (-3.5), but will take Green Bay.

NFL Betting Systems -- Playoffs

I recently noticed that one of my more popular blog posts -- is the mention about my book on "NFL Betting Systems," available at Amazon. The post is at this link:

http://jimceesports.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-book-on-nfl-betting-systems.html

In the book, I collaborated with SportsInsights and used an academic approach to study long-term data and NFL betting systems. There are some variations and methods that seemed to work even better for the NFL playoffs.

With tomorrow's NFL Conference Championships coming up fast, I wanted to highlight some indicators and betting systems that I use for the NFL Playoffs:

• As always, I look at public sentiment.
• I also weigh public opinion against the media and "big" stories that can sway the public and create value.
• NFL regular season performance can, of course, tell a lot about how strong a team really is: how good is the defense, how have they done against quality opponents?
• Line movement and live value can be a good indicator. Sometimes, we grab the line value, and sometimes, on small line movements, we like to follow what the syndicates may be doing.

The parity in today's NFL makes for some interesting results. Just think of the Jets taking out the Patriots after getting whipped just a few weeks earlier!

I will post my NFL picks later today.

Gambling or Investing?

Here is another article related to the 60 Minutes segment on Billy Walters this past Sunday - that I mentioned here. I have interests in investing -- and love the analogies between investing and the sports betting world. I believe that similar approaches (academic, professional, and analytical methods) can yield positive results. Please check out this excerpt from the Pragmatic Capitalist; the entire link is below.

As a society we have been conditioned to believe that there is a difference between gambling and investing. Of course, this partially true, however, the degree to which we “invest” and “gamble” is smaller than most are likely comfortable admitting. The majority of us have been conditioned to believe that buying a share of Bank of America is vastly different from placing a bet at a roulette table. A closer inspection of “investing” and “gambling” shows that the two are closer than the Wall Street sales machine would like you to believe.

http://pragcap.com/the-gambler