Saturday, May 7, 2011

Kentucky Derby

Here is some great coverage on the Kentucky Derby by

Over the years, some handicapping trends have held up very well in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at some Kentucky Derby trends that hold water and others that should be taken with a grain of salt:

Fewer than six career races

It is pretty close to the golden rule, when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby, that a horse had to have run at least six times in his career in order to be a legitimate contender for the roses.

Since 1933, only four winners have run five or fewer times and still had the base of experience and stamina needed to win this race. Three of those horses had run five times and Big Brown was a total fluke with just three career races.

This year, there is a solid chance that we will add another horse to the list because there are a number of inexperienced horses. We have to start with likely favorite Dialed In. He has run just four times. Depending on your view, that’s a serious warning sign, especially if he goes off at a low price.

Midnight Interlude and Animal Kingdom join him with just four races and Uncle Mo, Nehro and Shackleford have just five under their belts. There is a decent chance that the top three betting choices will all be light on experience.

Some of my favorites:
  • Archarcharch
  • Mucho Macho Man