Wednesday, October 27, 2010

World Series

I like the Giants. I ALSO like when different factors, angles, and trends agree. Multiple factors that line up in one direction yield better results.

I think that the press and many sports fans think that Texas will take home the World Series after they beat the Yankees by an average of 6 runs in their 4 wins (beating the Yankees 4 games to 2). These short series, especially in baseball, are not very meaningful. We think there is value on the SF Giants.

We like that the Who Will Win analysis matches up with this selection.

Monday, October 25, 2010

NHL Grand Salami -- Totals

I have been toying with this idea about NHL totals (total goals scored by both teams for that given day's NHL games). Many sportsbooks offer a line for total goals scored in the NHL for that day. Some books call this the "Grand Salami."

I originally thought that since much of the public generally leans to "overs" -- that it might be good to take "under" for the entire Grand Salami. I didn't have a source of historical data on this type of bet, so I started to collect data...

After just a short while, it appears that you can capture the statistical "tail" in some ways. In any given game, the current total of about 5.5 goals is a good over/under line for the total. However, there is a certain percentage of games that might be 8+ goal games (and even higher).

This seems like it can skew the results to the over side a bit (you can have a 10 goal game for instance at 6-4, but you can't have fewer than 1 goal in a game).

this play is also fun because you sort of have "action" on every NHL game that day... We'll keep an eye on this play...