Thursday, December 30, 2010

Reflections on 2010

As we get ready for a new year, it's always nice to reflect on the year that is coming to an end.

I thought this article was interesting. It made me think -- and try to analyze where we can find the most value in the sports betting world. I also checked out some stats at, another great sports betting website. In particular, I looked at ATS records for teams during 2010 to see if there was any pattern that might emerge.

Here are some observations and notes as we get set for 2011.
  • Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
  • The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
  • In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
  • A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
  • Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
  • The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
  • Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
  • The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!
Happy New Year!

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Happy Holidays, Thank you

Happy Holidays from my family to yours. A quick thank you to our readers. Our readership is growing -- and as we grow -- we'll add more content, and more frequently.

In addition, please let us know what kind of information -- and what sports -- you are most interested in.

We'll continue to post about major sporting events and championships. We'll also blog about research ideas, analytics -- and even some selections here and there.

It's been a good football season; thanks to everyone who has purchased my NFL book and / or my College Football Book on betting systems.

Happy New Year!

Friday, December 24, 2010

Media and the Sports Marketplace

The media seems to be catching on to sports betting and sports gambling as a real financial marketplace. Check out this Wall Street Journal article on contrarian methods applied to sports betting -- and in particular, the NFL sports marketplace.