Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - NBA Finals 5/31/11

We're looking to stay on the winning side with a play on Game One of the NBA Finals. We like the analysis on the "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog (which point to Miami) -- and our models and methods also like Miami in the first game of the series.

Also -- whenever the playoffs heat up -- there's also good coverage on some of our favorite sites.
  • Covers has a good article on the Miami-Dallas match-up -- and some of the betting trends point to Dallas.
  • SportsInsights currently has betting leaning towards Dallas, so the contrarian in me likes Miami that much more.
I took Miami to win the series as well, because the numbers are not very steep. - jc & cb

Monday, May 30, 2011

Monday Free Pick - MLB 5/30/11

Today, we are taking the Reds with Woods on the mound.  The Reds have been in a bit of a slump, and public sentiment is on the visiting Brewers.  We like the value on Cincy at home, with one of their good, young pitchers on the mound.  - jc & cb

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/29/11

We are going with HAPP today again. Take Houston at home with HAPP on the mound. Solid value... jc & cb

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/28/11

We're going with a rare play -- by taking the Phillies -1.5 over the Mets (using the run-line). Cole Hamels is rejuvenated -- and Pelfrey is still off.  This looks like a total mismatch -- but since the Mets are at home, the odds are not very long for the Phillies.  Oftentimes, when a game "LOOKS" like a mismatch, there is value on the dog, but our baseball computer model likes the Phillies better than the listed odds.

We like the value on the Phillies; however, we still don't like laying the heavy odds -- so we are taking the run line. - cb

Friday, May 27, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 5/27/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. We like the Yankees today, as a very slight dog against a hot new rookie pitcher. Seattle pitcher Michael Pineda is just 22 years old but has a career record of 6-2 and 2.16 ERA -- and a 0.94 WHIP.

Seattle is at home -- but the weak-hitting Mariners face the heavy-hitting Yankees with veteran AJ Burnett on the mound. We like the Yankees as slight dogs most of the time. - jc & cb

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 5/26/11

We're looking to continue our winning ways and are going with Miami to wrap up the semifinals over Chicago today. The line opened with Chicago, at home, being favored by -2 or -2.5 points. The line has been pushed up to 3 -- and we like that line value, combined with a Miami Heat team that may smell blood. We'll take the Heat plus the points. - jc & cb

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 5/25/11

We've been on a cold streak. Let's get back on the winning side on veteran pitcher Santana and LAA over Oakland and young stud Trevor Cahill. Cahill looks good, but may be slightly over-valued with his hot start to the season. The line has been pushed down so you can get LAA at home with Santana on the mound -- at about even odds. - jc & cb

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB (Happ-y) 5/24/11

We believe there is value on Houston and Happ, pitching at home.  After a rough start to the season, Happ has returned to his solid form -- and career ERA in the mid-3's.  Billingsley is always tough --- but we think the pitching match-up is fairly close, with Happ pitching better of late.  Combine this with Houston at home against a weak-hitting Dodgers team -- and an undervalued Happ -- and we have a good value play.  - cb

Monday, May 23, 2011

Monday Free Pick - MLB Salami 5/23/11

We don't like the pitching match-ups, combined with the angles and trends we normally study -- so we are going with the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 81 in 10 games -- with several ace pitchers going today.  - jc & cb

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/22/11

I am going with the Dodgers again; I like Kuroda getting + odds.  It's a good pitching match-up for LA over the CWS.

- jc & cb

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - MLB (Score 4) 5/21/11

We are trying to "score" 4 wins in a row today.  Yesterday, the Mets were a big underdog, padding our bankroll.

Today, I am taking the Dodgers and Garland -- who has been pitching solidly despite a 1-3 record.  Both the CWS and Dodgers have not been strong hitting clubs -- but there looks to be value on Garland and the Dodgers.  The line has been getting pushed up on the LAD.  - jc & cb

Friday, May 20, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB 5/20/11

I am taking the Mets as a large dog -- the NY-NY rivalry is strong and anything can happen when the Mets and Yankees meet for a "Subway Series."  The line has been pushed up to almost -200 on the Yankees -- so I like the line value on Dickey -- who can be tricky (and is slightly undervalued currently).  - cb

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 5/19/11

Jake Peavy is a warrior -- and got us a win yesterday.

Let's continue our winning ways with a play in the NHL. I will take the visiting Bruins as they look to forge ahead in their playoff series vs. Tampa Bay. The Bruins are an overall better team -- and have the advantage on defense and goaltending.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 5/18/11

April showers have extended into May -- so we got another rainout yesterday. Today, I am going with Jake Peavy and the CWS. As Peavy settles in, you won't be able to get him at -125 at home for much longer. He did fine in his first outing.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 5/17/11

Yesterday's 19-run outburst by Cleveland over KC put an end to our winning streak (with a loss for our Grand Salami play).  This happens sometimes, but the weight of the Unders often lets us eke out wins with our MLB salami plays.

Today, we are going with the Mets & Niese -- at home against a hot Nolasco.  I don't love the pitching match-up -- but do believe that there is value based on Noly being red-hot and Niese, a solid pitcher, starting the season a little slowly ("ugly" value).  The Mets are at home and have been playing better as of late.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Monday Free Pick - MLB to "Score 4" 5/16/11

I don't love any individual baseball game -- and there's a lull in the NBA & NHL playoffs.  I will take the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 123.5 in 15 games.

This is for four wins in a row.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/15/11

Another Salami rainout yesterday.  We're still going for 3 wins in a row on our blog.  Today, we're taking the Reds and Travis Woods over an aging Carpenter and St. Louis.  The two best offenses in MLB go head-to-head in a battle for first place in the NL Central.  I like Cincy for a few reasons (with many reasons backed up by historical biases):

  • Home team value
  • Pitching match-up
  • Pitching (youth & upside vs. potential age/decline)
  • Public sentiment on the bigger-name Carpenter.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/14/11

We're going for three wins in a row today.  With the NBA & NHL playoffs winding down, there's not much action going on...   Today, we're going with the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Hoping the weather holds out...  - cb

Friday, May 13, 2011

Friday Free Pick - NBA 5/13/11

The pendulum has swung the other way -- and the public is no longer in love with Memphis.  Public sentiment is now strongly on Oklahoma City -- and has decreased the line just a bit.

We'll take Memphis -1.5 -- to extend the series.

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 5/12/11

This was posted yesterday (some of you may have seen it after it was "twittered") -- but Google's blogging platform went down.  We had KC over the Yankees in a fairly large dog.  We liked the pitching matchup over the Yankees' Nova.

(Rainout washed out Wed's play)

We'll post today's free pick soon...

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB Grand Salami 5/11/11

After a hot streak, we've lost two in a row -- and we're looking to get back on track with an Under in the MLB Grand Salami. Under 125.5 in 15 games.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 5/10/11

I am taking a (rare) favorite today -- but like the pitching match-up. I grabbed Lester and the Red Sox at a not-too-pricey -155.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Monday Free Pick - NBA 5/9/11

I am on the Celtics today -- with big line movement giving the Celtics +1.5 at home. There are a lot of naysayers -- and the Celtics may not be able to "do it again..." -- but I like the line value.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 5/8/11

We had a nice Saturday, with our regular free play winning -- and our Pac-man boxing play hitting at just under 2-1 odds (for the decision, without a knockout).

Today, we are on Dallas in the NBA.  They are slight favorites -- but public sentiment is still on the Lakers and Kobe -- as big-name favorites.  I like the value on Dallas; they have been a top performer during the playoffs -- and had the same record as the Lakers int he regular season.  Take Dallas at home...

Happy Mother's Day!

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Mosley vs. Pac Man (Pacquiao)

There is a lot of sports activity today. Not only is there a full slate of baseball games, there are NHL & NBA playoff games. In addition, there is the Kentucky Derby & a big-name boxing match-up between Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao.

It is interesting that in horses and boxing, there are often mismatches -- and as a result -- there are often longshots. Historically, there is a long-shot-favorite bias whereby the public overvalues long-shots and undervalues the favorites.

Please check out this SportsInsights article on this bias.
In one of our articles, we highlighted the long-standing longshot-favorite bias that exists in horse racing and boxing betting. The sports betting research that SportsInsights.com performs for major US sports has uncovered biases that relate to betting against the public — and generally finds value on underdogs.

Interestingly, the opposite is generally true for major horse racing and boxing events. In these events, there is a LOT of public interest in these “one-time events.” Boxing and horses often offer long-shot “lottery ticket” opportunities that offer attractive odds to the casual bettor. This means that long-shots are OVER-valued — and that “sharps” and professionals are often on the undervalued favorites.

I will lean towards Pac-Man (in a decision) for this reason.

Some additional coverage and links:
  • A great Covers article: (Public on Mosley)
The consensus among ringside experts is that "Sugar" Shane Mosley needs a miraculous performance to upset Manny Pacquiao Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. But that isn't stopping public bettors from backing the underdog in the fight.

“Almost all of the money has been on Mosley,” Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay said. “All the small money accumulates on Mosley before the fight. Then, on the day of the fight, you will see a lot of money bet on Pacquiao.”
Read more here: http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232965

- jc & cb

Kentucky Derby

Here is some great coverage on the Kentucky Derby by Covers.com:

Over the years, some handicapping trends have held up very well in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at some Kentucky Derby trends that hold water and others that should be taken with a grain of salt:

Fewer than six career races

It is pretty close to the golden rule, when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby, that a horse had to have run at least six times in his career in order to be a legitimate contender for the roses.

Since 1933, only four winners have run five or fewer times and still had the base of experience and stamina needed to win this race. Three of those horses had run five times and Big Brown was a total fluke with just three career races.

This year, there is a solid chance that we will add another horse to the list because there are a number of inexperienced horses. We have to start with likely favorite Dialed In. He has run just four times. Depending on your view, that’s a serious warning sign, especially if he goes off at a low price.

Midnight Interlude and Animal Kingdom join him with just four races and Uncle Mo, Nehro and Shackleford have just five under their belts. There is a decent chance that the top three betting choices will all be light on experience.

Some of my favorites:
  • Archarcharch
  • Mucho Macho Man

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 5/7/11

Our six-game winning streak was stopped by the Yankees last night. We'll go with one of our favorite plays: the Under in the Grand Salami (Under 125.5 in 15 games).

Please visit my blog later; I will have some thoughts on:
  • the Kentucky Derby &
  • Pacman-Mosley

Friday, May 6, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB (Lucky 7?) 5/6/11

We are hot again -- and going for 7 wins in a row today.

I am on Texas to beat the Yankees at home. Not a great pitching match-up, but Texas looks to have the upper hand with Harrison over Nova. Everybody knows about the Yankees and their big HR hitters. However, Texas also has its offense going -- as well as the Bronx Bombers and their big dingers.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - MLB (Pick 6) 5/5/11

We are hot again -- and going for 6 wins in a row.  I have the under in the MLB Grand Salami.

Under 99.5 runs in 12 games.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Wednesday's Free Pick - MLB 5/4/11

We are still going for 5 wins a row due to the rainout yesterday.

Today, I am on taking Tim Hudson and Atlanta at home against Milw (and probably Greinke, fresh off the DL). It's a rare play on a favorite, but the odds are not too heavy -- and are a good value in this setup.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - Strive for Five 5/3/11

We've put together a winning streak again -- and we are going for five wins in a row.  Today, I am taking the Under in the MLB Grand Salami.  Under 126 runs in 15 games.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Monday Free Pick - MLB 5/2/11

It's not often you can get the Yankees as underdogs, with a solid pitching match-up.  Bartolo Colon has been rejuvenated -- not only in new surroundings, but Yankee pinstripes.  On the other hand, Verlander has been his usual solid self -- but has a win-loss record of just 2-3.  I like the value of the Yankees as dogs.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/1/11

After a cold spell, we are now gunning for 3 wins in a row.  Today, I am on Bud Norris & Houston, at home.

Houston has gotten off to a slow start, but their offense has been equal to Milwaukee's.  And, I particularly like the pitching match-up -- with a younger, and potentially better starter in Norris over Milwaukee's Narveson.  So -- the edges for us include:

  • Home team
  • pitching match-up
  • underdog value
  • slow start for Houston (and revert to mean)