Thursday, April 28, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/28/11

With so many underdogs covering during this year's NBA playoffs, I like the line movement and value on Portland today.  Sometimes the pendulum swings too far -- and you can obtain value going against extreme trends.

Portland faces elimination against Dallas -- and with Portland at home, and the public on Dallas -- I think Portland is a good play.  The line opened with Portland favored by -4.5 -- and the sentiment has reduced the spread to -4.  I am watching the line and hoping to get Portland -3.5 or better.