Monday, January 31, 2011
Sunday, January 30, 2011
The line for the Pro Bowl opened with the NFC favored by 1 to 1.5 points and the total points scored set at 62.5 to 63. This total is high for regular NFL games, but this is an end-of-season all-star game, where hard-hitting defense will be kept to a minimum.
A quick scan of recent Pro Bowl scores shows that the totals (over/under) for the NFL's All-Star game hovers right around the opening total. Interestingly, many bettors love scoring -- and note some scores like last year's total of 75 -- or 2004 where the total surpassed 100 points! As a result, public sentiment is on the "over" -- and has driven the line up a bit, which does give value for the under. I like the under. If you want a side, I lean to the NFC.
PS: Under moved up to 64 at the time of this post; and at 2pm ET, is at 66; I will be waiting on this one...
515pm ET = 66.5
Saturday, January 29, 2011
(Pardon the typos earlier today; blogged quickly from a smartphone).
Friday, January 28, 2011
In the NBA, I lean to Cleveland, getting +9.5 as a home dog. Public sentiment is on ANY team against Cleveland right now. Cleveland is the only NBA team to still have single-digit wins (just 8!) -- but I do not love this play -- as they not only have the worst record in the NBA, they also have the worst record ATS!
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Monday, January 24, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
- As always, I look at public sentiment.
- I also weigh public opinion against the media and "big" stories that can sway the public and create value.
- NFL regular season performance can, of course, tell a lot about how strong a team really is: how good is the defense, how have they done against quality opponents?
- Line movement and live value can be a good indicator. Sometimes, we grab the line value, and sometimes, on small line movements, we like to follow what the syndicates may be doing.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Sunday's NFL Conference Championship games could be among the most-watched football games in the history of the galaxy. Some of the most defining and important plays of the game, though, will come at points in the telecast when many of us will be fetching a fresh beer: first and 10 at the beginning of a new drive.
You won't see many of these plays in the highlights. More often than not it's a handoff that, on average, goes for just over four yards. But according to an exhaustive study of NFL play data conducted by Yale professor Cade Massey, what happens on first and 10 in an NFL game is a powerful indicator of who will win.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
- I like this visiting dog getting just under +10 points. Currently, the 76ers are generally available at +9
- At Covers.com, Philly remains an undervalued team, with one of the best records against-the-spread.
- Orlando is having a good year, but the point spread really evens things out.
- At another of my favorite sites, SportsInsights, this match-up is seeing heavy betting action and Philly is potentially a contrarian value with public sentiment on the "better team."
As a society we have been conditioned to believe that there is a difference between gambling and investing. Of course, this partially true, however, the degree to which we “invest” and “gamble” is smaller than most are likely comfortable admitting. The majority of us have been conditioned to believe that buying a share of Bank of America is vastly different from placing a bet at a roulette table. A closer of “investing” and “gambling” shows that the two are closer than the Wall Street sales machine would like you to believe.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Duke and Syracuse proved they could be beaten—and the remaining three undefeated teams showed vulnerabilities of their own. So who has the inside track to win the 2011 tourney? Find out at www.bracketscience.com.We added this site to our favorite links.
CONTENDER vs. PRETENDER: There are certain attributes that separate overachieving high seeds from underachievers. Efficiency numbers are important. So is protecting the ball. It also helps to have an All-American. Find out how to pick one and two seed overperformers. Read “Pretender/Contender.”
ANATOMY OF AN UPSET: Two-thirds of tourney games involve underdogs taking on favorites at least four seed positions better than them. Just one in five of these mismatches are won by the Cinderella. There are three basic guidelines that can help you pick 33 percent of upsets right and advanced round-by-round rules that can boost your upset-spotting success rate above 50 percent.
Monday, January 17, 2011
- "sports investing" (contrarian value) in the sports betting arena -- as well as
- a few professional gamblers and/or syndicates that win over the long term.
(CBS) When it comes to gambling, everybody knows the house has the advantage. But there are some high rollers who consistently win, and it's hard to find anyone better at winning than Billy Walters.
He bets on football and basketball, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and has been so successful that many Las Vegas bookmakers are afraid to even take his bets.
Walters has been almost as elusive as Howard Hughes, avoiding publicity, reluctant to reveal his secrets.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Saturday, January 8, 2011
- Based on some book's research on sports psychology. Their results have been good. http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-will-win-college-football.html
- Also, they got a press mention:
- The betting public generally favors Auburn -- so I like going the other way for value.
- Line movement, combined with public sentiment seems to indicate that "syndicates" are on Oregon.