There is a lot of sports activity today. Not only is there a full slate of baseball games, there are NHL & NBA playoff games. In addition, there is the Kentucky Derby & a big-name boxing match-up between Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao.
It is interesting that in horses and boxing, there are often mismatches -- and as a result -- there are often longshots. Historically, there is a long-shot-favorite bias whereby the public overvalues long-shots and undervalues the favorites.
Please check out this SportsInsights article on this bias.
In one of our articles, we highlighted the long-standing longshot-favorite bias that exists in horse racing and boxing betting. The sports betting research that SportsInsights.com performs for major US sports has uncovered biases that relate to betting against the public — and generally finds value on underdogs.
Interestingly, the opposite is generally true for major horse racing and boxing events. In these events, there is a LOT of public interest in these “one-time events.” Boxing and horses often offer long-shot “lottery ticket” opportunities that offer attractive odds to the casual bettor. This means that long-shots are OVER-valued — and that “sharps” and professionals are often on the undervalued favorites.
I will lean towards Pac-Man (in a decision) for this reason.
Some additional coverage and links:
- A great Covers article: (Public on Mosley)
Read more here: http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232965The consensus among ringside experts is that "Sugar" Shane Mosley needs a miraculous performance to upset Manny Pacquiao Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. But that isn't stopping public bettors from backing the underdog in the fight.
“Almost all of the money has been on Mosley,” Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay said. “All the small money accumulates on Mosley before the fight. Then, on the day of the fight, you will see a lot of money bet on Pacquiao.”
- More on the longshot-favorite bias: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/05/quant-fact-long-shot-favorite-bias.html
- Shane Mosley http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shane_Mosley
- jc & cb