Sportsinsights Highlights

Thanks for visiting my blog.  I post free picks -- in a sort of "play of the day" format -- and have been doing decently.  I also post articles related to sports betting from time to time.  Today, I wanted to highlight one of my favorite sports betting websites (Sportsinsights.com), especially because their blog helped me to pick up two units last night.  (The big NBA games: Boston-Chicago; Nuggets)

Some of my favorite sports-related links are at the bottom of this blog.  (My blog reading list is posted on the right-hand-side.)  Sportsinsights is my favorite site because I believe they offer a "real edge" in the sports gambling arena.  They collect and analyze betting lines from several real offshore sportsbooks.  More importantly, they have access to betting percentages that can be used to "poll" public sentiment and get an idea where contrarian line value might exist.

I have known the guys at Sportsinsights for many years -- and think they are stand-up guys.  Full disclosure: I have even done some research with Sportsinsights data and collaborated on their series of books.  I have performed solid academic research and have shown that a contrarian approach to sports betting provides an edge (at a statistically significant level).  Their "square plays" and "best bets" perform decently and are "true" pre-published results.

Unfortunately, even Sportsinsights does not claim to have some magic formula.  Many of their approaches are in the 53%-56% level.  However, I would rather take a small -- but real -- edge, than have my head in the clouds...  

I DO try to improve results with other handicapping methods -- but that's for another blog post.

Wednesday's Free Pick - NBA 2/23/11

The blog's free pick streak is growing again: we are going for three wins in a row tonight.  In the NBA tonight, there seem to be some big games with great teams playing weak teams, with public sentiment on the heavy favorites based on info from SportsInsights.com.  I think that there could be value there -- but I also like to study statistics and records against the spread at Covers.com.

I am going with Utah today, visiting Dallas.  We get a solid team playing a great team -- and some nice line value, with the line being bid up from Utah +7 to Utah +10.  

A Wealth of Super Bowl Betting Info & Free Pick 2/6/11

Here is some useful information I have gathered on the Super Bowl.  FWIW, I like the Steelers -- and will lean to the Under.  Actually, with the over/under being pushed up (now up to 45 at most books), I like the Under even more now.  Here are some links I have looked at:

• I love the coverage by Covers.com.  Check this out, their Super Bowl "infographs", or this, on match-ups, etc.  
• Here's a list of SportsInsights' goodies, articles, summary of systems, etc.  Overall, they lean to the Steelers.  They show betting to be evenly split -- with the line slowly moving towards Green Bay.  
• For big games in the playoffs, I like this site: Who Will Win the Big Game, which is often quoted by the New York Times.  They use some different angles including sports psychology to make some interesting picks -- and have done well.  They sometimes pick underdogs, as they do this year, going with the Steelers -- and have compiled a 20-10 record on their book's blog (including picking the Saints last year).

Some observations:

• Betting is split about 50/50 on this one, but with the line edging slightly to GB.  The Super Bowl is a different animal, but "bigger money" seems to be slightly on GB.
• I believe that "hot money" is following GB, who had the blowout win over Atlanta in the playoffs.  Numbers show that recent performance may not necessarily help ATS.  If anything, it could lead to value on Pittsburgh.
• Some people note that Pittsburgh has the better record, and is the #2 seed vs. the Packers # 6 seed.
• Based on all of the factors I have studied, I believe that there is good value on Pittsburgh.  I would actually favor the Steelers by a few points, so getting Pitts +3 is solid value.
• BTW - based on some of these stats, I will also take a chance at some other props with Pitts winning big.

I hope this wealth of information brings us Super Bowl riches as well.  

Friday Free Pick - NHL 2/4/11

It's another light Friday for sports betting activity: sort of the calm before the storm of Super Bowl weekend.  College hoops has just a few games before a heavy Saturday -- and I don't see any values to "write home about" in the NBA.  We'll go with one of our favorite plays recently, the "Over" in the NHL "big salami."

We are tracking this play, and although our data sample size is fairly sparse, there seems to be a statistical edge in that a certain percentage of games result in a high-scoring score of say 6-4, making up for some small unders at, say 3-2.

I was able to get over 33.5 with 6 games.
 

World Series

I like the Giants. I ALSO like when different factors, angles, and trends agree. Multiple factors that line up in one direction yield better results.

I think that the press and many sports fans think that Texas will take home the World Series after they beat the Yankees by an average of 6 runs in their 4 wins (beating the Yankees 4 games to 2). These short series, especially in baseball, are not very meaningful. We think there is value on the SF Giants.

We like that the Who Will Win analysis matches up with this selection.

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/10/championship-traits-that-win-world.html

NHL Grand Salami -- Totals

I have been toying with this idea about NHL totals (total goals scored by both teams for that given day's NHL games). Many sportsbooks offer a line for total goals scored in the NHL for that day. Some books call this the "Grand Salami."

I originally thought that since much of the public generally leans to "overs" -- that it might be good to take "under" for the entire Grand Salami. I didn't have a source of historical data on this type of bet, so I started to collect data...

After just a short while, it appears that you can capture the statistical "tail" in some ways. In any given game, the current total of about 5.5 goals is a good over/under line for the total. However, there is a certain percentage of games that might be 8+ goal games (and even higher).

This seems like it can skew the results to the over side a bit (you can have a 10 goal game for instance at 6-4, but you can't have fewer than 1 goal in a game).

this play is also fun because you sort of have "action" on every NHL game that day... We'll keep an eye on this play...