Thursday, June 30, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 6/30/11

I am going with Houston at home, again.  It's nice having Wandy Rodriguez on the mound in this inter-league rivalry.  - cb

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/29/11

In a Texas inter-league match-up, we're taking Houston, at home, with Myers on the mound -- over Texas and Lewis on the mound.  There's some "juicy" money-line odds on Houston, that we believe is value over the long-term.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 6/28/11

We like Seattle and Pineda today at almost even odds.  Pineda is a good, young, stud pitcher -- and he probably won't keep up his 1.0 WHIP or 2.5 ERA -- but he definitely warrants some attention at close to even odds, pitching at home.  The Braves have another ace going in Hanson.  To be young, and good!

We like the value with Pineda, at home.  - jb, cb

Monday, June 27, 2011

Monday Free Pick - MLB 6/27/11

We're getting on Cleveland and Talbot as a heavy underdog -- but "live dog" with value in this inter-league game.  It's a late game this Monday evening.

- jb & cb

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 6/26/11

We're going with a seemingly ugly play, taking Pittsburgh over the Red Sox in inter-league play.  However, this play has valued based on a few angles:

  • Pittsburgh is at home,
  • McDonald is underperforming his career stats and has some decent upside.
  • The Red Sox starter, A Miller, has yet to prove himself, and has struggled. 
  • Because of public sentiment, the line is moving in the direction of the Red Sox -- so we are getting additional line value.  -cb & jc

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - WNBA 6/25/11

We're looking to get hot and make it two wins in a row today.  We're going with a play in women's basketball -- and taking Connecticut + 4 points, visiting Indiana.    - jc & cb

Friday, June 24, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/24/11

We are going with Baltimore at home over the Reds in inter-league play.  Both starting pitchers are mediocre -- but we like the + odds on Baltimore at home.  - cb

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Thursday -- NO Play 6/23/11

Not many games today, and we don't see any particularly good value.  We'll be "selective" and save our ammunition for tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/22/11

Today's Phillies-Cardinals game promises to be a great match-up. People still think of the playoffs when they hear Cliff Lee's name -- and that could be a reason for over-valuation. We are taking the Cardinals, at home, with Lohse on the mound, who continues to put up great numbers this season. We love the plus odds on the moneyline.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - WNBA 6/21/11

Today's play of the day is on a late game.  We were watching a few of the lines on the late games and today, we are taking the NY Liberty in women's hoops.  Our analysis shows that this is a solid play -- although we would have liked better line value.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Monday Free Pick - MLB 6/20/11

We're going with Anibal Sanchez and the Florida Marlins today.  We don't like going up against Cy Young candidate J. Weaver and the Angels -- but we like this play for several reasons:

  • Sanchez is a good, young pitcher, entering his prime, like Weaver.
  • Weaver has been smoking hot -- and value could be against him.
  • Florida is at home.
  • Both teams are mediocre, but Florida's offense is a touch better.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 6/19/11

Today's value play of the day is Milwaukee, with good young pitcher Gallardo on the mound, visiting the Red Sox, with Wakefield on the mound.  Tim Wakefield continues to "do what he does" -- and is remarkably consistent at age 44.  However, in this case, we have "youth versus age" -- and the higher likelihood of upside potential / surprises from Gallardo -- and downside potential from Wakefield, the aging veteran.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/18/11

We are going for three wins in a row today.  Our preferences in the NHL & NBA finals dragged us down a a bit, but we have been red-hot in baseball.  We're going with an unusual pick today.

We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games.  We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today.  The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds.  The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.

Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track.  Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season.  We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.

You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/17/11

I am taking Cleveland over Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is at home and the public likes the Pirates.  I like the pitching match-up and home field advantage.  Interleague play is often more difficult, but we like several factors.  - cb

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 6/16/11

We're going with an ugly pick, by taking Washington, at home vs. the hard-hitting Cardinals, with Cards reborn pitcher Kyle Lohse on the mound.  On paper, this looks like a really ugly, bad, play.  However, Lohse had a lifetime ERA of almost 5.00 before this season.  We'll go with young stud John Lannan -- and the Nationals at home -- and look for Lohse to "revert to the mean."   - jc, cb

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - NHL 6/15/11

Today is the last day of NHL action -- so we're using this opportunity to take Vancouver at home -- at decent line value after Boston man-handled the Canucks once again (in Game 6).  Sports fans remember recent action -- and the line has been pushed down dramatically because of some of the Bruins' blowout wins.  The series could really go either way -- but I think this one has solid value with Vancouver, at home, to "do it" when it counts.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 6/14/11

We're going with ugly value -- and using extreme public sentiment -- to obtain value in a MLB play today.  We're going with Wells on the mound at home for Chicago.  Let's stay hot in MLB.  - cb

Monday, June 13, 2011

Monday Free Pick - NHL 6/13/11

We are taking Vancouver to "break serve" and win on Boston's home ice and take the Stanley Cup.  Because of Boston's big wins at home, public sentiment is on Boston to win at home and go to a Game 7.  We like Vancouver and the + odds.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/12/11

We're going back to the well and taking Miami in Game 6 of the NBA finals.  We think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.  We're going with LeBron and Miami at home.  Things have gone Dallas' way the past few games in Dallas -- and the betting public has driven the line down from Miami -6/-5.5 down to -4.5.

We'll keep an eye on the point spread and grab that line value at some point. We're hoping to extend our winning streak to three games in a row.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/11/11

We'll stay in MLB and we're taking Cuncy and Leake.  We don't like going up against Lincy much -- but getting Cincy with Leake on the mound at around +150 is a solid value (even if they are on the road).

Friday, June 10, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/10/11

Today, our play-of-the-day is in baseball -- on Seattle and solid pitcher, Bedard.  Seattle is visiting Detroit -- and the Tigers have a better offense, but we'll take Bedard in the pitching match-up AND get the plus moneyline odds.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 6/9/11

I am staying with Miami in the NBA finals today.  I think that a great player like LeBron James will bounce back -- and it appears that some of the big money agrees, based on some of the steam moves in the point spread.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - NHL 6/8/11

We'll look to stay hot -- and will go with Vancouver at Boston in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  In the last game, Boston came out with urgency and crushed the Canucks.  Tonight, I think we will see the reverse -- and Vancouver will want to re-take a 2-game lead in the series.  Take Vancouver as a visiting underdog -- as a good value after their blowout loss in Game 3.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 6/7/11

Today, we're going with the ChiSox with Humber on the mound.  There are two good young pitchers going in this game, but we like this game for many reasons:

  • CWS is at home,
  • CWS has better offense,
  • Pitching match-up is very close,
  • Public likes Seattle's Hernandez -- so the line has been pushed up on Seattle,
  • CWS has good + money line odds.  

Monday, June 6, 2011

Monday Free Pick - NHL 6/6/11

We're going with Vancouver today, in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals (this is for 3 wins in a row).  We like the plus moneyline odds -- because Vancouver is visiting Boston.  We think they will move closer to the championship.  Sentiment is on Boston at home, giving us additional value.  

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/5/11

I am going with Miami once again in the NBA Finals, Game 3. The series moves to Dallas now, so Miami is getting +2.5 points. The line opened at +3, but our line analysis shows that more of the "bigger bettors" are taking Miami plus the points. - jc & cb

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 6/4/11

We're going with the over in the NHL today. The low-scoring Game One may have created some value -- unless it takes 59 minutes plus to score in this game! With the Over set at 5, we have a good safe "spot" at the 5. -jb & cb

Friday, June 3, 2011

Friday Free Pick - MLB 6/3/11

Weaver remains red-hot, but betting on the visiting Yankees has driven the price for Weaver at home lower. I like that kind of line value -- and will pay some slight odds to get Weaver tonight. - jc

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Thursday Free Pick - NBA (Score 4) 6/2/11

Not much baseball action today. We are going for four wins a row -- and will go back to the NBA finals and pick the Heat. They finished game one strongly -- and the point spread is the same: -4.5. We'll give the points as the triumvirate make their way to the championship. - cb

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 6/1/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. Today, we are going with a good, live, young arm -- in 26-year old Josh Tomlin. He has a lifetime 1.1 WHIP and is pitching for first place Cleveland.

We like youth, and the upside (value) of Tomlin -- on a potentially under-rated Indian team -- and especially the plus moneyline odds on Cleveland, visiting Toronto.