We're looking to get back on track with a play on Wandy Rodriguez and Houston at home. Wandy has been pitching solidly, so we like the plus odds at home, vs. the Giants. Vogelsong has been unconscious, with a 2.5 ERA -- but we like the odds and the potential reversion to the mean scenario. - jc
Showing posts with label revert to mean. Show all posts
Showing posts with label revert to mean. Show all posts
Friday, August 19, 2011
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Sunday Free Pick - MLB 8/14/11
Today, we are going with Florida -- at home with Volstad on the mound. Volstad has had a difficult year, with a 5.58 ERA and 5-8 record (and 1.51 WHIP) -- but his .319 BABIP tells us he might be a bit unlucky this year... His numbers are still generally okay -- and we look for him to revert to his pre-2011 numbers a bit. Thus, we like the value on Volstad, at home. He's just 24 years old, so there is huge upside surprise potential.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Monday Free Play - Mets 8/1/11
I LOVE the METS AT HOME TODAY....Mets look to recuperate after road losses to Nats. Look for bounce-back and "revert-to-the-mean" value today. - cb
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/18/11
We are going for three wins in a row today. Our preferences in the NHL & NBA finals dragged us down a a bit, but we have been red-hot in baseball. We're going with an unusual pick today.
We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games. We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today. The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds. The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.
Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track. Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season. We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.
You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.
We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games. We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today. The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds. The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.
Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track. Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season. We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.
You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Thursday Free Pick - MLB 6/16/11
We're going with an ugly pick, by taking Washington, at home vs. the hard-hitting Cardinals, with Cards reborn pitcher Kyle Lohse on the mound. On paper, this looks like a really ugly, bad, play. However, Lohse had a lifetime ERA of almost 5.00 before this season. We'll go with young stud John Lannan -- and the Nationals at home -- and look for Lohse to "revert to the mean." - jc, cb
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/1/11
After a cold spell, we are now gunning for 3 wins in a row. Today, I am on Bud Norris & Houston, at home.
Houston has gotten off to a slow start, but their offense has been equal to Milwaukee's. And, I particularly like the pitching match-up -- with a younger, and potentially better starter in Norris over Milwaukee's Narveson. So -- the edges for us include:
Houston has gotten off to a slow start, but their offense has been equal to Milwaukee's. And, I particularly like the pitching match-up -- with a younger, and potentially better starter in Norris over Milwaukee's Narveson. So -- the edges for us include:
- Home team
- pitching match-up
- underdog value
- slow start for Houston (and revert to mean)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)