Wednesday Free Play - MLB 9/14/11

Kershaw at -135 to -140 odds -- at home -- is a solid value to us.  Kershaw boasts a career ERA of 2.9 -- and this year his ERA is about 2.3!  Grab it before the odds worsen...    

Friday Free Pick - MLB 8/18/11

We're looking to get back on track with a play on Wandy Rodriguez and Houston at home.  Wandy has been pitching solidly, so we like the plus odds at home, vs. the Giants.  Vogelsong has been unconscious, with a 2.5 ERA -- but we like the odds and the potential reversion to the mean scenario.  - jc 

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/16/11

I like getting David Price, TB pitching ace -- as a slight underdog (!!) -- visiting the Red Sox.  This is a case of a big edge on the mound -- but watered down by home edge for the Sox plus an anemic offense for the Rays.  With the Red Sox gaining headlines with their pennant chase (vs. the Yankees) -- there is also some value on taking a non-public team (and betting against the big name Sox).

Note that this is an early afternoon game.  - jc

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 8/14/11

Today, we are going with Florida -- at home with Volstad on the mound.  Volstad has had a difficult year, with a 5.58 ERA and 5-8 record (and 1.51 WHIP) -- but his .319 BABIP tells us he might be a bit unlucky this year...  His numbers are still generally okay -- and we look for him to revert to his pre-2011 numbers a bit.  Thus, we like the value on Volstad, at home.  He's just 24 years old, so there is huge upside surprise potential.  

Sunday's Free Play - MLB 7/31/11

We like LAA +121 today; we like the + money line odds.  Weaver at +odds is a nice value -- although of course, he's visiting Detroit and fellow ace, Verlander.  Still, we like the value.  - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/30/11

I always thought that P. Humber had a great pitcher's name -- and he's coming into his own at age 28.  He has a huge pitching match-up against the Red Sox today.  The CWS and Humber meet Jon Lester -- but at least the White Sox are at home.  We like the juicy +140 odds on a pitcher with a 1.1 WHIP and 3.27 ERA.  - cb

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 6/26/11

We're going with a seemingly ugly play, taking Pittsburgh over the Red Sox in inter-league play.  However, this play has valued based on a few angles:

• Pittsburgh is at home,
• McDonald is underperforming his career stats and has some decent upside.
• The Red Sox starter, A Miller, has yet to prove himself, and has struggled. 
• Because of public sentiment, the line is moving in the direction of the Red Sox -- so we are getting additional line value.  -cb & jc

Friday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 5/27/11

We're going for three wins in a row today. We like the Yankees today, as a very slight dog against a hot new rookie pitcher. Seattle pitcher Michael Pineda is just 22 years old but has a career record of 6-2 and 2.16 ERA -- and a 0.94 WHIP.

Seattle is at home -- but the weak-hitting Mariners face the heavy-hitting Yankees with veteran AJ Burnett on the mound. We like the Yankees as slight dogs most of the time. - jc & cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 5/25/11

We've been on a cold streak. Let's get back on the winning side on veteran pitcher Santana and LAA over Oakland and young stud Trevor Cahill. Cahill looks good, but may be slightly over-valued with his hot start to the season. The line has been pushed down so you can get LAA at home with Santana on the mound -- at about even odds. - jc & cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB (Happ-y) 5/24/11

We believe there is value on Houston and Happ, pitching at home.  After a rough start to the season, Happ has returned to his solid form -- and career ERA in the mid-3's.  Billingsley is always tough --- but we think the pitching match-up is fairly close, with Happ pitching better of late.  Combine this with Houston at home against a weak-hitting Dodgers team -- and an undervalued Happ -- and we have a good value play.  - cb

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/22/11

I am going with the Dodgers again; I like Kuroda getting + odds.  It's a good pitching match-up for LA over the CWS.

- jc & cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 5/18/11

April showers have extended into May -- so we got another rainout yesterday. Today, I am going with Jake Peavy and the CWS. As Peavy settles in, you won't be able to get him at -125 at home for much longer. He did fine in his first outing.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 5/15/11

Another Salami rainout yesterday.  We're still going for 3 wins in a row on our blog.  Today, we're taking the Reds and Travis Woods over an aging Carpenter and St. Louis.  The two best offenses in MLB go head-to-head in a battle for first place in the NL Central.  I like Cincy for a few reasons (with many reasons backed up by historical biases):

• Home team value
• Pitching match-up
• Pitching (youth & upside vs. potential age/decline)
• Public sentiment on the bigger-name Carpenter.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 5/10/11

I am taking a (rare) favorite today -- but like the pitching match-up. I grabbed Lester and the Red Sox at a not-too-pricey -155.

Friday Free Pick - MLB (Lucky 7?) 5/6/11

We are hot again -- and going for 7 wins in a row today.

I am on Texas to beat the Yankees at home. Not a great pitching match-up, but Texas looks to have the upper hand with Harrison over Nova. Everybody knows about the Yankees and their big HR hitters. However, Texas also has its offense going -- as well as the Bronx Bombers and their big dingers.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 4/20/11

I am going with Seattle and Bedard today (over Detroit).  In a battle of winless pitchers, we are looking for Bedard to level off with some solid starts.  While he may not recover from his injuries -- his 2011 spring training showed that he has recovered and can be productive.

Both pitchers have ERAs above 6.00 -- but we like Bedard at home today.  It's an afternoon game.