2012 NCAA Championship Game

In tonight's game, I like Kentucky to win the championship, and locked in Kentucky -6.  Both teams are powerhouses -- and some say that Kentucky is one of the best in history.  I wouldn't argue with that because Kentucky excels on both sides of the court -- with excellent FG% and Three-point shooting % -- as well as the same stats on the defensive side.

Sports Insights' betting percentages point to Kansas as a contrarian play, and there is some slight line value based on the opening line -- but we grabbed the -6 to prevent any further line slippage.

On championship games, we also like the "Who Will Win" analysis -- which points to Kentucky as well.

The National Bracket (2012 March Madness)

Here's some good March Madness info:

We love this link: the "National Bracket" which shows the cumulative entries -- so you can pick where others are not!

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/nationalBracket?entryID=4725386

Some good ideas and numbers:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/images2/SportsInsights_Expert_Bracketology_Guide.pdf

Our favorite March Madness website for bracket pools:

• ESPN.com
• CBSsports.com

Fading Kentucky -- March Madness is here!

March Madness is here -- and even the conference championship games has us fired up!  We loved this analysis by Sports Insights -- and will be fading Kentucky tonight.  Take the big points and fade Kentucky -- and hope Georgia can stay with top-ranked Kentucky.

I helped to put together a paper for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference that starts tomorrow.  You can find the paper here.

2012 Super Bowl (Patriots - Giants)

My free play is on New England to cover the spread against the Giants.  I especially love this if you can get NE -2.5.  The key 3 number takes some excess value out of the picture, but I still love NE -3.  The Giants have come on strong -- but are less consistent than the Patriots.  I would take Brady over Eli Manning any day...

Here is some good coverage of the Super Bowl:

1. SportsInsights' Super Bowl blog summary.  I read all of the links in this post:   http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/02/weekend-sports-update-super-bowl/
2. Who Will Win: I love these sports psychology angles for a different edge.
3. Covers' Super Bowl coverage.

2012 NFL Conference Championships

In today's AFC & NFC Championship games, we like San Francisco and Baltimore to beat the spread -- and perhaps even for Baltimore to advance to the Super Bowl against SF.  New England is an interesting story; they have looked old and weaker earlier in the season, but then finished strongly -- but against an over-rated and generally weak schedule.  Thus, we like Baltimore a lot in the AFC game.

In the NFC game, we think it can potentially be a blowout -- for a strong 49er team with the top-ranked NFL defense -- against an over-achieving Giant team.  Here are some links to info we like:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-nfc-championship-game.html

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-16/

http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=262219

Free Play: NFL Wildcard Weekend (1/7/12)

Happy New Year!

Here's a nice mention of the Sports Investing Books at Sports Insights -- plus a great betting angle.  We like Atlanta as well.

Please take a look at Sports Insights’ series of books on Sports Investing that highlight some of the sports betting trends that we look at — that drive our betting strategies — and have helped create seven years of winning NFL plays.

With the playoffs starting, there are fewer games on the board, so we called one of our offshore line managers.  He had the Falcons-Giants game circled and said, “Some early sharps are on the Falcons and that pushed the line towards the Falcons even though the smaller bettors are on the Giants.”

The betting percentages are not as lopsided as we would like, but we like the “smart money line movement” especially on the huge key number of three (3). 

Read more here:
http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-focus-on-nfl/

Wednesday Free Pick - NCAAB 12/7/11

We're taking a rare favorite today -- but we like how the line has declined.  The researchers at Sports Insights like visitors in several sports, including college basketball.  We don't normally like favorites, but we like the betting trend on visitors, combined with line value: Temple -11.5.  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/30/11

Our free play of the weekend is in the NFL.  We like Miami plus the big points (+10/+10.5) over the Giants due to public sentiment being all over the Giants.  Miami is suffering through a winless season, and the media blitz swirling around the team has created some value.  Also, the Giants do not seem as strong as the ten-point spread ...  Take the Dolphins plus the points.

Note that this play agrees with the Sports Insights Marketwatch column.

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 10/6/11

In honor of the NHL season starting, our free play of the day is a hockey play.  We are taking Philly, visiting Boston, partly due to this nice bit of research over at SportsInsights.com.

SportsInsights updated its research on betting against the public in the NHL that uses it's betting percentages.

  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/25/11

We like Sports Insights' Marketwatch play on Indy +11 today.  The line has definitely been "pumped up" with all of the media talk about how great Manning is...  We like the injury over-reaction value.  

Monday Free Pick - NFL 9/12/11

We're going with the Dolphins today, because the public is all over the Patriots.  This matches up with Sports Insights' Marketwatch column; they like the Dolphins as well -- due to the divisional rivalry and the extreme betting percentages.    

SportsInsights Research - College Football

SportsInsights shows that contrarian methods can work as a standalone method to add value to handicapping.

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/ncaa-football/bet-against-public/2010-11-season-review.aspx

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/15/11

Today, we are going against the surprising Pirates -- and taking Houston and Myers, at home.  SportsInsights had a good mid-season update and noted that the Pirates have been the best team ATS so far this season.  We think that the Pirates are over-valued at this point -- and like Houston at home.

Tuesday Free Pick - NBA Finals 5/31/11

We're looking to stay on the winning side with a play on Game One of the NBA Finals. We like the analysis on the "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog (which point to Miami) -- and our models and methods also like Miami in the first game of the series.

Also -- whenever the playoffs heat up -- there's also good coverage on some of our favorite sites.

• Covers has a good article on the Miami-Dallas match-up -- and some of the betting trends point to Dallas.

• SportsInsights currently has betting leaning towards Dallas, so the contrarian in me likes Miami that much more.

I took Miami to win the series as well, because the numbers are not very steep. - jc & cb

Mosley vs. Pac Man (Pacquiao)

There is a lot of sports activity today. Not only is there a full slate of baseball games, there are NHL & NBA playoff games. In addition, there is the Kentucky Derby & a big-name boxing match-up between Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao.

It is interesting that in horses and boxing, there are often mismatches -- and as a result -- there are often longshots. Historically, there is a long-shot-favorite bias whereby the public overvalues long-shots and undervalues the favorites.

Please check out this SportsInsights article on this bias.

In one of our articles, we highlighted the long-standing longshot-favorite bias that exists in horse racing and boxing betting. The sports betting research that SportsInsights.com performs for major US sports has uncovered biases that relate to betting against the public — and generally finds value on underdogs.

Interestingly, the opposite is generally true for major horse racing and boxing events. In these events, there is a LOT of public interest in these “one-time events.” Boxing and horses often offer long-shot “lottery ticket” opportunities that offer attractive odds to the casual bettor. This means that long-shots are OVER-valued — and that “sharps” and professionals are often on the undervalued favorites.

http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/05/horses-boxing-favorite-bias/

I will lean towards Pac-Man (in a decision) for this reason.

Some additional coverage and links:

• A great Covers article: (Public on Mosley)

The consensus among ringside experts is that "Sugar" Shane Mosley needs a miraculous performance to upset Manny Pacquiao Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. But that isn't stopping public bettors from backing the underdog in the fight.

“Almost all of the money has been on Mosley,” Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay said. “All the small money accumulates on Mosley before the fight. Then, on the day of the fight, you will see a lot of money bet on Pacquiao.”

Read more here: http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232965

• More on the longshot-favorite bias: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/05/quant-fact-long-shot-favorite-bias.html

• Shane Mosley http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shane_Mosley

• Pac Man http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manny_Pacquiao

- jc & cb

NBA Betting Tips

I thought this was a good article by SportsInsights.  Some good info and betting tips.

Below are some betting tips that came to mind when looking at last night’s results.

• We often talk about playoffs, games on national TV, and other “big games” — where the edge in sports investing and contrarian value seems to be magnified.  Here is a SportsInsights article on this “big game” trend (as well as other betting tips).

• The lines are often biased against the public to increase sportsbook profit margins; the link points to aneconomist’s view of “how and why” point spreads are shaded.

• Point spreads are often “sharp” — so that if you “Shop for the best line” — you can improve your results.  Last night’s Memphis-San Antonio game is a prime example.  If you shopped for the best line, you would either push or beat the point spread, depending on your side.  The line was waffling between Memphis +6.5 and +7 — and the game landed on +7.

For the whole article:
http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/04/sports-betting-tips-nba-sportsinsights/

Baseball Betting Biases & Tips

Opening Day has arrived.  Here are some sources of info that I follow regularly.

• Covers always has great sports betting coverage, and here's an article that has some basic tips (follow streaks, pay attention to who is playing/out of lineup, bullpens, money management).
• SportsInsights just came out with an update to their regular series of articles on "betting against the public."  Some good academic research, info and guidelines (fade public, betting % guidelines, home teams appear undervalued).    
• I also like this spring training analysis that was published in the NY Times from "Who Will Win?" -- and will use it for potential value early in the season.  

Please visit my blog regularly for free plays of the day and betting tips that can help with your sports handicapping.  

WSJ, SportsInsights & Value

I like how the Wall Street Journal has been picking up on applying contrarian methods to the sports betting world.  They just came out with this article using SportsInsights' research on March Madness:

Fabrizio examined the final betting lines of every Division I college basketball game played in March or April since 2004 and monitored the bets taken by six popular online bookmakers. He determined when one team is favored by at least 16 points and receives more than 60% of the bets, the underdog covers the spread 56.5% of the time. The results are strikingly similar to those of another study Fabrizio performed in December, which examined the benefits of the contrarian investing technique to betting on NFL games. 

Please click here for the link to the article.

These contrarian sports investing methods often result in "ugly plays" (large underdogs!) -- but the data shows that there is value in applying contrarian methods not only to stocks -- but also to sports betting.  The typical sports bettor feels "bad" (and stupid) when the the ugly play gets blown out (which happens regularly) -- but more often than not, the point spread is able to help the "ugly pick" squeak by with a win ATS (against the spread).

Sportsinsights Highlights

Thanks for visiting my blog.  I post free picks -- in a sort of "play of the day" format -- and have been doing decently.  I also post articles related to sports betting from time to time.  Today, I wanted to highlight one of my favorite sports betting websites (Sportsinsights.com), especially because their blog helped me to pick up two units last night.  (The big NBA games: Boston-Chicago; Nuggets)

Some of my favorite sports-related links are at the bottom of this blog.  (My blog reading list is posted on the right-hand-side.)  Sportsinsights is my favorite site because I believe they offer a "real edge" in the sports gambling arena.  They collect and analyze betting lines from several real offshore sportsbooks.  More importantly, they have access to betting percentages that can be used to "poll" public sentiment and get an idea where contrarian line value might exist.

I have known the guys at Sportsinsights for many years -- and think they are stand-up guys.  Full disclosure: I have even done some research with Sportsinsights data and collaborated on their series of books.  I have performed solid academic research and have shown that a contrarian approach to sports betting provides an edge (at a statistically significant level).  Their "square plays" and "best bets" perform decently and are "true" pre-published results.

Unfortunately, even Sportsinsights does not claim to have some magic formula.  Many of their approaches are in the 53%-56% level.  However, I would rather take a small -- but real -- edge, than have my head in the clouds...  

I DO try to improve results with other handicapping methods -- but that's for another blog post.

Wednesday's Free Pick - NBA 2/23/11

The blog's free pick streak is growing again: we are going for three wins in a row tonight.  In the NBA tonight, there seem to be some big games with great teams playing weak teams, with public sentiment on the heavy favorites based on info from SportsInsights.com.  I think that there could be value there -- but I also like to study statistics and records against the spread at Covers.com.

I am going with Utah today, visiting Dallas.  We get a solid team playing a great team -- and some nice line value, with the line being bid up from Utah +7 to Utah +10.