We love the stats at Covers.com -- particularly their ATS records, as well as margin of victory and other key indicators. Some reasons we love the Celtics over the Knicks (minus the points) today:
- My "simple probabilistic model" shows that the Celtics, at home, should be favored closer to double-digit points in this game.
- ATS records show that the Knicks outperformed this season -- but came back to earth a bit by the end of the season.
- The betting is fairly split -- which is unusual when a team is favored by this much. To me, this means that the public is leaning towards the Knicks.
- Since the Carmelo trade the general public -- and deep-pocketed NY fans -- HAS overvalued the Knicks.
We took the Celtics and gave the 6 points.