Sunday, April 17, 2011

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 4/17/11

We are looking to get back to our winning ways -- with a pick in the NBA playoffs.  We are taking a rare favorite -- the Celtics -6 -- because it looks like the Celtics are undervalued in this game.

We love the stats at -- particularly their ATS records, as well as margin of victory and other key indicators.  Some reasons we love the Celtics over the Knicks (minus the points) today:

  • My "simple probabilistic model" shows that the Celtics, at home, should be favored closer to double-digit points in this game. 
  • ATS records show that the Knicks outperformed this season -- but came back to earth a bit by the end of the season.
  • The betting is fairly split -- which is unusual when a team is favored by this much.  To me, this means that the public is leaning towards the Knicks.
  • Since the Carmelo trade the general public -- and deep-pocketed NY fans -- HAS overvalued the Knicks. 
We took the Celtics and gave the 6 points.