Final Four - 2014 March Madness

In today's semifinal games, I like U-Conn +7 and the Under 127.  Some decent points for an expected low-scoring game.

In the later game, I like Kentucky -1 (line has ticked down to -1 at some books!) and Over 138.5.  It's been a great tournament as usual, and I am psyched for today's games.

March Madness Finals (4/8/13)

I am taking Michigan plus the points in tonight's College Basketball final.  Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball -- and has a dangerous 3-point FG percentage.  Several of my sources -- and I -- expect this game to be a tossup, so I love getting the dog plus four points.

One of the analysts that I follow, the "Who Will Win" authors have this as their prediction:

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Link: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2013/04/ncaa-mens-championship-game-2013.html

2012 NCAA Championship Game

In tonight's game, I like Kentucky to win the championship, and locked in Kentucky -6.  Both teams are powerhouses -- and some say that Kentucky is one of the best in history.  I wouldn't argue with that because Kentucky excels on both sides of the court -- with excellent FG% and Three-point shooting % -- as well as the same stats on the defensive side.

Sports Insights' betting percentages point to Kansas as a contrarian play, and there is some slight line value based on the opening line -- but we grabbed the -6 to prevent any further line slippage.

On championship games, we also like the "Who Will Win" analysis -- which points to Kentucky as well.

Wednesday Free Pick - NCAAB 12/7/11

We're taking a rare favorite today -- but we like how the line has declined.  The researchers at Sports Insights like visitors in several sports, including college basketball.  We don't normally like favorites, but we like the betting trend on visitors, combined with line value: Temple -11.5.  

Saturday Free Pick - CF 9/10/11

We like Penn State over Alabama today.  We like the double-digit points for a home dog -- especially whenthe public is all over the favorite.  Some good value based on research in my book.

Monday Free Pick - March Madness 4/4/11

We picked up another win yesterday, in MLB.  

With the big NCAA March Madness finals today -- we are going with Connecticut.  People seem to like the Butler "Cinderella story" and their back-to-back finals -- but I like ALL of the factors on CT's side...  Coaching, leadership, biggest star on the court (Walker!).   Give the points -- (and based on public sentiment, maybe the spread will continue to shrink).  

Saturday Free Pick - March Madness 4/2/11

We have been staying hot -- and are going for three wins in a row.  Our blog's free picks have gone 10-3 in our last 13 plays-of-the-day.  We're going with a March Madness play today.

We like Butler -- based on their experience, several stats, and VCU's recent hot play (which we believe could be creating some value).  Here is some interesting analysis on the Final Four.

Sunday Free Pick - March Madness Play 3/27/11

We're looking to continue our hot streak.  Going for 3 in a row today -- and trying for 8 of our last 9 free picks for our plays of the day.

I am taking the UNDER in  Kansas-VCU game.  Some huge line movement there -- the total moved from 142 all the way to 147.5.  

Thursday Free Pick - Madness Pick 3/17/11

In honor of the start of March Madness, I am going with a college hoops play.  I am taking a big dog in NC Asheville + 18 over Pittsburgh.  I like the dog and the big points in a potentially low-scoring game.

The blog's free picks are going for 3 wins in a row.

Final Four Pool

Check out this NCAA Men's Basketball bracket pool; it is run round-by-round -- and looks interesting (and there are prizes).  One of my friends is running it with a college financial markets class.

Point values for correct picks are determined by the actions of market participants.

Friday Free Pick 3/11/11

Going with a college basketball play today.  San Jose St +14.5, a contrarian value:  big dog -- where public sentiment is on the big favorite.

Wednesday Free Pick - 3/9/11

After reading the WSJ article earlier today (on big dogs for college hoops at this time of the season), it made me want to find a big underdog that the public hates.

I am going with Texas Tech +10 (and hoping for more later!) over Missouri.

Tuesday Free Pick - 3/8/11

Let's try and grab a win with a big dog in college hoops.  At this time of the season, big underdogs will surprise and cover the spread more often than not.

Taking an ugly play in Depaul (currently +14.5 and hopefully more later) over U-Conn.  

Saturday Free Pick - NCAA Hoops 2/26/11

Today's play of the day is on the Georgetown-Syracuse game.  Public perception is on the Orangemen, because they have been hot -- while the Georgetown Hoyas have been struggling just a bit recently.  The game is receiving a lot of attention and I believe that there is at least a few points worth of line value in this game.  

Georgetown boasts one of the toughest schedules this season -- and I think that they will bounce back and take this game at home.  Again, this is a numbers game, but I like the contrarian approach in sports betting -- because it often yields decent value in the long-term.  Georgetown -1 currently, and watching the line, hoping for pick'em.  

Monday Free Pick - President's Day 2/21/11

It is extremely light today, on President's Day. There were a few early games. On days like this, it could pay to lay off on betting action unless you really like a game. We'll go with Western Carolina -3.5, a slight favorite, to try and get another streak going.

Friday Free Pick - Pick Six? 2/18/11

Our winning pick on Thursday brings our blog's recent streak to 5 wins in a row -- so we are going for a "Pick Six" -- 6 in a row, that is.   I have been on a roll lately, but remember to "bet with your head" and use good money management.  I won't make any claims that I will win the equivalent of 60% of the time (equivalent because of the impact of moneyline bets).

However, the methods I use should help sports handicappers overcome the vig.  Please also visit one of my more popular posts on sports betting tips.

Today's sports action is particularly light -- even for a Friday at this time of the year -- because of the NBA's All-Star break.  In today's sports betting action, I like:  Dartmouth +11.5 over Columbia.  Public sentiment is on the big favorite -- so there looks to be some value on Dartmouth.  I also always like getting some "meaty" action in terms of points, and the +11.5 (hopefully more later) gives us that "value."

We'll go with Dartmouth as our "pick six" play.  Thanks for reading!

Wednesday Free Pick - NCAA Basketball 2/16/11

We're going for four wins in a row on our blog -- with a big visiting dog in NCAA Basketball: Iowa State getting +11 visiting Texas A&M.

Saturday Free Pick - NCAA Hoops 2/12/11

With today's busy college basketball schedule, we're going with a pick in NCAA Hoops.  We like St. Louis, getting double-digit points, with public sentiment on Richmond, big-time.  There looks like there is some good value on the visiting dog here.

Our "ugly play" on the NHL Devils won last night.

Sat Free Pick 1/29/11

I like Georgetown for several reasons: public sentiment, visiting dog getting decent [5] points, andbig-time game magnifies the potential value.

(Pardon the typos earlier today; blogged quickly from a smartphone).

Wed, 1/26/11, Free Pick - NCAAB

After last night's win ATS (against the spread) on a "visiting dog getting double-digit points" -- we're going "back to the well" in college hoops again. This time, we'll take George Washington getting +13 points vs. Xavier.