Super Bowl 49: Seattle and Under

I haven't been posting as often, but it is SUPER BOWL time!  I like Seattle and the Under in this year's Super Bowl.

• The public is on New England to the tune of almost three out of every four bets.  
• The Patriots have been hot and even with DeflateGate, many think that Belichick's Patriots are just too smart; a step ahead of the rest.  
• As usual, I like value -- and love last year's champs with the point or as a moneyline play.  
• The Patriots hot streak since the first third of the season may represent value.  
• For those interested in a "flyer" -- I would take the Seahawks in a blowout.  Seattle "big" and the under -- can be parlayed.  

Some analysis I like:

• From the Sporting News: The "Linemakers" columns states that the sharps are on Seattle and the Under.
• Sports psychology angle I like because they offer a different edge -- are on Seattle.
• If you are in a Square Pool, here are some interesting probabilities.  

Super Bowl Pool

I love pools -- so check this out: Square Pool Odds -- by quarter!  Hope I get that 0, 3 or 4!

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

I will have my Super Bowl picks up in a few days.  I can tell you that I am on the under!  

NFL Championship Games

I am joining the side of the books!  I like both slight favorites.  Many fans and analysts are jumping on SF and NE's bandwagon because of their recent good -- and Seattle and Denver's slightly lesser play.  However, research has shown that recent performance is often overrated.  I am giving the small points.

Taking Denver and NE; also lean the unders.

2012 NFL Conference Championships

In today's AFC & NFC Championship games, we like San Francisco and Baltimore to beat the spread -- and perhaps even for Baltimore to advance to the Super Bowl against SF.  New England is an interesting story; they have looked old and weaker earlier in the season, but then finished strongly -- but against an over-rated and generally weak schedule.  Thus, we like Baltimore a lot in the AFC game.

In the NFC game, we think it can potentially be a blowout -- for a strong 49er team with the top-ranked NFL defense -- against an over-achieving Giant team.  Here are some links to info we like:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-nfc-championship-game.html

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-16/

http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=262219

Free Play: NFL Wildcard Weekend (1/7/12)

Happy New Year!

Here's a nice mention of the Sports Investing Books at Sports Insights -- plus a great betting angle.  We like Atlanta as well.

Please take a look at Sports Insights’ series of books on Sports Investing that highlight some of the sports betting trends that we look at — that drive our betting strategies — and have helped create seven years of winning NFL plays.

With the playoffs starting, there are fewer games on the board, so we called one of our offshore line managers.  He had the Falcons-Giants game circled and said, “Some early sharps are on the Falcons and that pushed the line towards the Falcons even though the smaller bettors are on the Giants.”

The betting percentages are not as lopsided as we would like, but we like the “smart money line movement” especially on the huge key number of three (3). 

Read more here:
http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-focus-on-nfl/

Thursday Night Football Free Play 12/22/11

Happy holidays! Our free play for our readers is the over in the Thursday night football game.  Over 40 in the Indy-Houston game.  

Monday Free Pick - Monday Night Football 12/12/11

On Monday Night Football, I like St. Louis with the +10.5 points.  St. Louis has been miserable scoring points this year, but Seattle -- giving double digit points -- yields some solid value.

Thanksgiving Free Play - NFL

We have a free play in the NFL for Thanksgiving Day.  We're going to take the Under for the GB-Detroit game.  Watch the line (currently 56) and grab the Under if it looks like it is ticking down.  Otherwise, it appears like the total could rise a bit.  

Monday Free Pick - NFL 11/14/11

We like the huge points in tonight's Monday Night Football Game.  Try and grab the key +14 if you can, but we like the large point spread anyway in this big rivalry.  Green Bay has been the best in the NFL by far, but most teams this year have been showing that anything can happen!  Take the big points and the dog!  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 11/6/11

We like Indy today +7 -- and if you can still get it -- the +7.5 is even better.  The Colts may be winless -- but with everyone hating them, there is good value on Indy plus the points.  As our friends say, definitely an "ugly play!"  (but that's how we find value...)

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/30/11

Our free play of the weekend is in the NFL.  We like Miami plus the big points (+10/+10.5) over the Giants due to public sentiment being all over the Giants.  Miami is suffering through a winless season, and the media blitz swirling around the team has created some value.  Also, the Giants do not seem as strong as the ten-point spread ...  Take the Dolphins plus the points.

Note that this play agrees with the Sports Insights Marketwatch column.

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/16/11

Our free pick today is on the St. Louis Rams +15.5.  I think there is a good chance that the Rams can stay within the huge point spread.  Green Bay is being hyped up as the NFL's best -- especially with the Patriots' loss a few weeks back...  Take the points!  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 10/2/11

Based on the betting percentages at SportsInsights (as well as their Marketwatch info) -- I agree with the Jaguars +7.5 pick.  I like the value; the fear of a Saints blowout gives me added comfort on this play!

Monday Free Pick - MNF 9/26/11

We like the Cowboys tonight -- IF you can grab the key number of -3.  Pay the extra juice and get the 3 if you can.  Above the -3, there's a bit less value...   

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/25/11

We like Sports Insights' Marketwatch play on Indy +11 today.  The line has definitely been "pumped up" with all of the media talk about how great Manning is...  We like the injury over-reaction value.  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/18/11

We like the big points on Carolina -- combined with the public betting on Green Bay like this is a done deal.  We'll take Carolina in a truly "ugly" play!

Monday Free Pick - NFL 9/12/11

We're going with the Dolphins today, because the public is all over the Patriots.  This matches up with Sports Insights' Marketwatch column; they like the Dolphins as well -- due to the divisional rivalry and the extreme betting percentages.    

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/11/11

How often can you get the mighty Colts + double-digit points?  BUT how often is Peyton Manning injured?  Oftentimes, we see the public and sportsbooks overreact to injuries.  Manning is certainly valuable -- but he is aging and even without Manning, the Colts are a very strong team.  Take the Colts and shop for the 10 points if you can get it.  

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 9/8/11

We're taking the UNDER in the NFL season opener.  The line has edged upwards -- giving us some line value.  We like the under with the Green Bay defense -- and a Saints offense that hasn't been the same since their Super Bowl.  

Monday Free Pick - NFL 8/29/11

We like the pts on the key-3 on the Jets.  Getting the Jets (shop for this line, it is available at the time of this writing) -- has some solid value as the Jets are the better team.  The Jets will look to build on this momentum as they prepare for the season to start.  - jc & cb