Super Bowl 49: Seattle and Under

I haven't been posting as often, but it is SUPER BOWL time!  I like Seattle and the Under in this year's Super Bowl.

• The public is on New England to the tune of almost three out of every four bets.  
• The Patriots have been hot and even with DeflateGate, many think that Belichick's Patriots are just too smart; a step ahead of the rest.  
• As usual, I like value -- and love last year's champs with the point or as a moneyline play.  
• The Patriots hot streak since the first third of the season may represent value.  
• For those interested in a "flyer" -- I would take the Seahawks in a blowout.  Seattle "big" and the under -- can be parlayed.  

Some analysis I like:

• From the Sporting News: The "Linemakers" columns states that the sharps are on Seattle and the Under.
• Sports psychology angle I like because they offer a different edge -- are on Seattle.
• If you are in a Square Pool, here are some interesting probabilities.  

Super Bowl Pool

I love pools -- so check this out: Square Pool Odds -- by quarter!  Hope I get that 0, 3 or 4!

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

I will have my Super Bowl picks up in a few days.  I can tell you that I am on the under!  

NCAA Bracket Info

Here is some bracket information I have been looking at when completing my brackets. Have fun!

• This is a nice calculator from BracketScience. Some features are available for members only, but there's still some good info.
• Here are some probabilities generated by that U-Chicago pool I mentioned. The financial marketplace approach to the pool resulted in interesting and reasonable probabilities that can help differentiate your own brackets!!
• Some standouts from those probabilities:
• Florida State, a #10 seed = 55.6% to advance to next round
• Missouri, #11 = 59.8%
• Marquette #11 = 51.0%
• Old Dominion #9 = 57.8%
• Utah St #12 = 52.3%
• Michigan St #10 = 54.1%
• This NY Times article also shows some good probabilities.

Monday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training 3/14/11

I am staying with MLB Spring Training -- and going with the SF Giants.  Also -- if you haven't seen it, please check out my spring training biases, that was fairly popular yesterday.

Also -- check out this Final Four Pool.  At the least, it looks like the info could be useful in completing your brackets!  (...pricing can be used as probabilities of advancing to the next round...)

March Madness Brackets Coming Soon

We like this site, Bracket Science, that specializes in March Madness bracket pools and does some good analytical work. We'll have info on college basketball and value -- but we also love this site's work and research. Here's an excerpt from their recent newsletter:

Duke and Syracuse proved they could be beaten—and the remaining three undefeated teams showed vulnerabilities of their own. So who has the inside track to win the 2011 tourney? Find out at www.bracketscience.com.

CONTENDER vs. PRETENDER: There are certain attributes that separate overachieving high seeds from underachievers. Efficiency numbers are important. So is protecting the ball. It also helps to have an All-American. Find out how to pick one and two seed overperformers. Read “Pretender/Contender.”

ANATOMY OF AN UPSET: Two-thirds of tourney games involve underdogs taking on favorites at least four seed positions better than them. Just one in five of these mismatches are won by the Cinderella. There are three basic guidelines that can help you pick 33 percent of upsets right and advanced round-by-round rules that can boost your upset-spotting success rate above 50 percent.

We added this site to our favorite links.