Don't Bet the House: When it goes too far!

Crazy story at Yahoo.com...

Betting on football matches has long been an integral part of the game for supporters but Henry Dhabasani's attempts to 'make things a little more interesting' have had dire consequences.

Dhabasani, of the Iganga district of Eastern Uganda, has lost his home as a result of Manchester United's 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Sunday after a high-stakes wager with a neighbour.

Fellow local and United fan Rashid Yiga put up his car and wife as collateral in the deal, emerging the victor on the back of Robin van Persie's 27th-minute header at Old Trafford.

Read more here:
http://sg.sports.yahoo.com/news/extra-time-arsenal-supporter-left-homeless-manchester-united-184100023--spt.html

NBA Betting Tips

I thought this was a good article by SportsInsights.  Some good info and betting tips.

Below are some betting tips that came to mind when looking at last night’s results.

• We often talk about playoffs, games on national TV, and other “big games” — where the edge in sports investing and contrarian value seems to be magnified.  Here is a SportsInsights article on this “big game” trend (as well as other betting tips).

• The lines are often biased against the public to increase sportsbook profit margins; the link points to aneconomist’s view of “how and why” point spreads are shaded.

• Point spreads are often “sharp” — so that if you “Shop for the best line” — you can improve your results.  Last night’s Memphis-San Antonio game is a prime example.  If you shopped for the best line, you would either push or beat the point spread, depending on your side.  The line was waffling between Memphis +6.5 and +7 — and the game landed on +7.

For the whole article:
http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/04/sports-betting-tips-nba-sportsinsights/

NBA & NHL Playoff Betting Tips

Here are some bettng tips and some interesting information on the NBA and NHL playoffs.  First, in the NBA:

• I generally like big underdogs -- and the NBA playoffs are no exception.  
• SportsInsights recently commented on big dogs in the NBA playoffs (and their solid performance so far in the playoffs).
• With the dogs making such a strong showing, there's a chance that the pendulum has swung too far.  I will be looking to see if the favorites are showing some hints of (surprising) value.  

In the NHL:

• Early low-scoring and hard-checking playoff games have given way to more scoring over recent games.  The pendulum swings both ways and you have to keep an eye on value.  The Big Salami totals have shrunken, leading to potential value again on the Over.
• In the NHL, there is a bias to visitors -- and we will be watching this trend as the playoff series extend.  That is, heavy home favorites (for the higher-rated seeds) are switching to games that are more "even" as the lower-rated seeds get home ice.  
• I will be watching for value on visitors in these "closer" games.

Baseball Betting Biases & Tips

Opening Day has arrived.  Here are some sources of info that I follow regularly.

• Covers always has great sports betting coverage, and here's an article that has some basic tips (follow streaks, pay attention to who is playing/out of lineup, bullpens, money management).
• SportsInsights just came out with an update to their regular series of articles on "betting against the public."  Some good academic research, info and guidelines (fade public, betting % guidelines, home teams appear undervalued).    
• I also like this spring training analysis that was published in the NY Times from "Who Will Win?" -- and will use it for potential value early in the season.  

Please visit my blog regularly for free plays of the day and betting tips that can help with your sports handicapping.  

Monday Free Pick - Score 4 (& 9 of 10) 3/28/11

We hope that you have been benefiting from our hot streak and will visit our blog regularly.  Today, we are going for 4 wins in a row (and 9 of our last 10 free plays).

We post to some forums as well, but will always post our "plays of the day" on our blog.  Our goal is to use contrarian methods and statistical biases to help sports bettors gain an edge in sports betting.  I have studied various approaches and post short articles from time to time on various topics, including:

• money management,
• betting tips, 
• sports betting biases
• and research results.

In today's sports marketplace, I am taking Atlanta over Washington in MLB spring training.  Atlanta is borderline pricey -- but has several biases that have proven to be successful in spring training (home team, superior team).  

Friday Free Pick - Pick Six? 2/18/11

Our winning pick on Thursday brings our blog's recent streak to 5 wins in a row -- so we are going for a "Pick Six" -- 6 in a row, that is.   I have been on a roll lately, but remember to "bet with your head" and use good money management.  I won't make any claims that I will win the equivalent of 60% of the time (equivalent because of the impact of moneyline bets).

However, the methods I use should help sports handicappers overcome the vig.  Please also visit one of my more popular posts on sports betting tips.

Today's sports action is particularly light -- even for a Friday at this time of the year -- because of the NBA's All-Star break.  In today's sports betting action, I like:  Dartmouth +11.5 over Columbia.  Public sentiment is on the big favorite -- so there looks to be some value on Dartmouth.  I also always like getting some "meaty" action in terms of points, and the +11.5 (hopefully more later) gives us that "value."

We'll go with Dartmouth as our "pick six" play.  Thanks for reading!

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 2/13/11

Today, I am going with a pick in the NBA: the big Miami-Boston game.  I like Boston for a few reasons, some of which are mentioned in my blog post on sports betting tips I wrote earlier today.

In particular, I like Boston, currently getting +2.5 at several books at home (!!) because:

• Public sentiment is on a red-hot Miami Heat team.  Since the Heat started the season barely above .500, they have put together the best record in the NBA.  
• Boston has been cold lately, but look for them to be "up" for this game.
• The line opened at Boston -1 at CRIS, but public sentiment quickly pushed the line to Miami as a favorite, and has continued to push the line to Boston +2.5.  I like that kind of line value.  

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price.