Don't Bet the House: When it goes too far!

Crazy story at Yahoo.com...

Betting on football matches has long been an integral part of the game for supporters but Henry Dhabasani's attempts to 'make things a little more interesting' have had dire consequences.

Dhabasani, of the Iganga district of Eastern Uganda, has lost his home as a result of Manchester United's 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Sunday after a high-stakes wager with a neighbour.

Fellow local and United fan Rashid Yiga put up his car and wife as collateral in the deal, emerging the victor on the back of Robin van Persie's 27th-minute header at Old Trafford.

Read more here:
http://sg.sports.yahoo.com/news/extra-time-arsenal-supporter-left-homeless-manchester-united-184100023--spt.html

Thursday -- NO Play 6/23/11

Not many games today, and we don't see any particularly good value.  We'll be "selective" and save our ammunition for tomorrow.

Monday Free Pick - President's Day 2/21/11

It is extremely light today, on President's Day. There were a few early games. On days like this, it could pay to lay off on betting action unless you really like a game. We'll go with Western Carolina -3.5, a slight favorite, to try and get another streak going.

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price. 

Nice WSJ article on the NFL

Below is some analysis showing the importance of first down in each series.

Not much sports betting action today; selectivity is a good thing... The "vig" is hard enough to overcome. I will post my NFL picks on Saturday.

Sunday's NFL Conference Championship games could be among the most-watched football games in the history of the galaxy. Some of the most defining and important plays of the game, though, will come at points in the telecast when many of us will be fetching a fresh beer: first and 10 at the beginning of a new drive.

You won't see many of these plays in the highlights. More often than not it's a handoff that, on average, goes for just over four yards. But according to an exhaustive study of NFL play data conducted by Yale professor Cade Massey, what happens on first and 10 in an NFL game is a powerful indicator of who will win.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704747904576094483705923032.html?mod=rss_Sports