Sunday, February 13, 2011

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.
  • Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
  • Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
  • If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
  • Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
  • Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
  • In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
  • I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
  • I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
  • Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:
  1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
  2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price.