Saturday Free Pick - MLB 4/30/11

I like Wandy Rodriguez & Houston over Milwaukee and Randy Wolf today.  Big Wandy normally K's almost 200 batter a year -- and he still has that kind of "stuff."  He's also been pitching a bit better lately -- and I look for him to start returning to form...

On the other hand, Wolf has been hot, and perhaps he will "revert to the mean" as well.  I like Houston and Wandy at home -- as a solid home dog.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 4/29/11

I am taking the UNDER in the MLB Grand Salami.  130 runs in 15 games: the weight of many games on the under and some stud pitchers...

Have a good weekend.

NBA Betting Tips

I thought this was a good article by SportsInsights.  Some good info and betting tips.

Below are some betting tips that came to mind when looking at last night’s results.

• We often talk about playoffs, games on national TV, and other “big games” — where the edge in sports investing and contrarian value seems to be magnified.  Here is a SportsInsights article on this “big game” trend (as well as other betting tips).

• The lines are often biased against the public to increase sportsbook profit margins; the link points to aneconomist’s view of “how and why” point spreads are shaded.

• Point spreads are often “sharp” — so that if you “Shop for the best line” — you can improve your results.  Last night’s Memphis-San Antonio game is a prime example.  If you shopped for the best line, you would either push or beat the point spread, depending on your side.  The line was waffling between Memphis +6.5 and +7 — and the game landed on +7.

For the whole article:
http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/04/sports-betting-tips-nba-sportsinsights/

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/28/11

With so many underdogs covering during this year's NBA playoffs, I like the line movement and value on Portland today.  Sometimes the pendulum swings too far -- and you can obtain value going against extreme trends.

Portland faces elimination against Dallas -- and with Portland at home, and the public on Dallas -- I think Portland is a good play.  The line opened with Portland favored by -4.5 -- and the sentiment has reduced the spread to -4.  I am watching the line and hoping to get Portland -3.5 or better.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 4/27/11

I am on Houston today with JA Happ, a young pitcher who has started this season slowly -- but has a 20-12 lifetime record and 3.5 ERA.  The public likes St. Louis -- and this has added some line value.

Happ & Houston are a live dog with solid value.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 4/26/11

I am on Cincy and Leake today.  Leake is a solid young pitcher -- and his "brush with the law" -- may help him stay focused (and regain his form from a year ago).

Leake's last few starts show that he may "be back" -- and in particular, his last start shows that his "troubles" may impact him in a positive way.

Monday Free Pick - MLB Salami 4/25/11

I am on the Under on the MLB Grand Salami today.  Under 76.5 in 9 games; data shows that the "weight of many games" increases the bias of Unders -- in MLB Grand Salami plays.  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/24/11

I am taking Seattle and a good young pitcher, D. Fister, at home -- over Oakland and another good, young pitcher (B. Anderson).  Both are solid pitchers -- and I like getting + odds with Fister and Seattle at home.

Happy holidays!

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 4/23/11

Looking to stay on the right side of the column with a MLB pick.  I am taking SD at home with Stauffer on the mound (against a tough Phillies team).

Friday Free Pick - NBA 4/22/11

I am going to be on the Celtics tonight.  The line has grown so that the Celtics are receiving +3.5 points.  I like the value -- and think there is a good chance the Celtics win outright.

Thursday Free Pick - NHL 4/21/11

I am taking the LA Kings tonight.  Public sentiment is on the other side, so I expect additional line value on the Kings...   Solid home dog.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 4/20/11

I am going with Seattle and Bedard today (over Detroit).  In a battle of winless pitchers, we are looking for Bedard to level off with some solid starts.  While he may not recover from his injuries -- his 2011 spring training showed that he has recovered and can be productive.

Both pitchers have ERAs above 6.00 -- but we like Bedard at home today.  It's an afternoon game.  

NBA & NHL Playoff Betting Tips

Here are some bettng tips and some interesting information on the NBA and NHL playoffs.  First, in the NBA:

• I generally like big underdogs -- and the NBA playoffs are no exception.  
• SportsInsights recently commented on big dogs in the NBA playoffs (and their solid performance so far in the playoffs).
• With the dogs making such a strong showing, there's a chance that the pendulum has swung too far.  I will be looking to see if the favorites are showing some hints of (surprising) value.  

In the NHL:

• Early low-scoring and hard-checking playoff games have given way to more scoring over recent games.  The pendulum swings both ways and you have to keep an eye on value.  The Big Salami totals have shrunken, leading to potential value again on the Over.
• In the NHL, there is a bias to visitors -- and we will be watching this trend as the playoff series extend.  That is, heavy home favorites (for the higher-rated seeds) are switching to games that are more "even" as the lower-rated seeds get home ice.  
• I will be watching for value on visitors in these "closer" games.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 4/19/11

We've cooled off a bit -- but will stick with our guns of being selective -- and seeking out value plays.  Today, we will take a quality young pitcher, 23 yr-old Kyle Drabek and Toronto over the heavy-hitting Yankees and aging veteran AJ Burnett.

Burnett is a deceiving 3-0 -- with an ERA of 4.67.  We'll go with youth over age -- and take an "ugly" pick.  The Yankees will be a good team this year, but they have been hot out of the gate and are over-valued.    

Monday Free Pick - MLB Line Value 4/18/11

I am on KC today with some solid line value (increasing from slight fav to slight dog).

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 4/17/11

We are looking to get back to our winning ways -- with a pick in the NBA playoffs.  We are taking a rare favorite -- the Celtics -6 -- because it looks like the Celtics are undervalued in this game.

We love the stats at Covers.com -- particularly their ATS records, as well as margin of victory and other key indicators.  Some reasons we love the Celtics over the Knicks (minus the points) today:

• My "simple probabilistic model" shows that the Celtics, at home, should be favored closer to double-digit points in this game. 
• ATS records show that the Knicks outperformed this season -- but came back to earth a bit by the end of the season.
• The betting is fairly split -- which is unusual when a team is favored by this much.  To me, this means that the public is leaning towards the Knicks.
• Since the Carmelo trade the general public -- and deep-pocketed NY fans -- HAS overvalued the Knicks. 

We took the Celtics and gave the 6 points.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 4/16/11

I like the under in the NHL grand salami.  Playoff hockey is tighter-checking hockey.  Under 21 with good money line odds...  Solid value.

Friday Free Pick - MLB (Pick 6) 4/15/11

We are going for six wins in-a-row today.  We hope that our blog has helped your bankroll.  Please visit our blog regularly for betting trends and biases I have been researching -- as well as daily free picks.  I will have some information on the NHL and NBA playoffs soon.

Today, I am going with Arizona's young D. Hudson over the bigger-name SF Giants and M. Cain.  Hudson is an up-and-coming young pitcher (born in 1987!) -- who has a career ERA of about 2.7 and whip of about 1.1 (in about 130 IP).  Hudson's 0-2 record is deceiving because he had quality starts in his first two games of the season (giving up 2 and 3 ERs in 7 and 6 IP, respectively).

The Arizona offense is scoring better than SF's in the early part of the season -- so a "slight dog at home" -- is a good value play.

Thursday Free Pick - NHL (Drive for 5) 4/14/11

We are turning to the NHL in our "drive for five" wins in a row.  With the NHL playoffs in gear, we are going to take the Under in the NHL Grand Salami with the closer-checking NHL playoff games.  

You can get Under 16 without paying too much in terms of odds at some books.  Try to NOT pay big odds for the 16.5.  

Wednesday Free Pick - Score 4 4/13/11

We're trying to "Score Four" wins in a row on our blog.  Today, we are going with a good SD team and Stauffer -- over a hot Cincy team and potential overvalued T. Wood.

T. Wood looks like a good, young, pitcher -- but Stauffer is not minced meat either.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Reds, and SD looks like a good live dog in this one.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 4/12/11

We're going for 3 in a row today -- and staying with TB and David Price.  David Price's ERA is higher than it should be based on his WHIP, etc.  Some big odds on the visiting Rays over Boston -- at +163 and growing.

Grab the line value.

Derek Jeter -- value prop play

Just a fun play if you are interested.  I don't like futures/props very much (time value of money) -- but this play seemed like a good value.  Jeter is struggling -- and there are props on "when Jeter will get his 3,000th hit."  I was able to get 2-1 odds for June 21st or after.

With Jeter struggling:

• he may move down in the lineup, meaning fewer at bats.  
• In addition, although an all-time great, players often decline in terms of batting average with age.
• Public sentiment is on Jeter; he is a beloved player in deep-pocketed NYC -- and well-respected, in general.  
• Thus, I think there is value on the play of getting the hit on the latter side...  

Monday Free Pick - MLB 4/11/11

It's amazing that the Bosox and Rays are a combined 3-15.  That's a .167 winning percentage!

Today, I am taking the Rays and a good, young, pitcher -- over  big-name Dice K at the Red Sox.  There's some good odds on this game at about +140.  Sadly, Dice-K has not made it back after his World Baseball Classic injury back in 2009.  We're going with youth over decline/age in this one.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/10/11

Looking to start a new winning streak -- and stay hot -- with a play against a hot Cincy team and a good young pitcher.  BUT -- sometimes this is how you can get value.  I am taking Arizona -- and hoping the line gets juicier for Ariz.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 4/9/11

These "April showers" bring rain-outs and no-action for the Grand Salami.  Today, we're going with a play in MLB, with Atlanta (Beachy), at home, over the Phils (Oswalt).

Friday Free Pick - MLB Grand Salami 4/8/11

I am taking the under in the MLB grand salami today.  Note that the first game of the day is at 3pm, eastern; although there seems to be a lot of rain around (so hopefully games don't get rained out).

Under 125.5 in 15 games.

Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/7/11

How often can you get the Celtics +4.5 points -- and as a value play?  (Going for two in a row today on our blog; thanks for visiting!).

I like the Celtics plus the points in this playoff preview against the Bulls.  The oddsmakers finally seem to be catching up with the Chicago Bulls, who still have a great record ATS -- but have been struggling recently ATS.  Over their past 10 games, they are 4-6 ATS -- while winning the vast majority of their games.  I love the stats at Covers.com with respect to ATS data and statistics.

I am watching the line and hope it gets driven up further.

Master of the Masters 4/7/11

Here's a quick look at some of the contenders for the Masters Tournament -- with potential value...  

Name, Odds, Rank in GIR %, Putt Avg, Birdie Avg

LOWER ODDS (Favorites)

N. Watney   18-1,  32, 2, 1  (should be a favorite)

D. Johnson   24-1, 20, 37, 2  (another favorite)

H Mahan    35-1, 30, 35, 8

B Watson   38-1, 2, 70, 12 

M Kuchar   35-1, 21, 10, 8  (a favorite; consistent level of play: GIR/Putts/Birdies!;  with higher odds)

LONGER SHOTS (but potential value)

G Woodland  143-1, 24, 14, 5 (young, but hugely solid)

M Laird     55-1, 51, 16, 11

A Badderley  106-1, 18, 56, 12 (also a seeming bargain..??)

OTHER NOTABLES (some with no stats)

T Woods   10-1, NO info

P Mickelson 10-1, 113, 44, 7 (Dangerous, can win it)

L Westwood  18-1

M Kaymer  17-1

Wednesday Free Pick - Grand Salami 4/6/11

Our winning streak ended yesterday (we were going for 6 in a row).  We're looking to stay hot with a pick in the Grand Salami.  I like this play because there appears to be an edge in the data I have studied.  This bias has helped me to pad my bankroll during the NHL season.  I believe that a similar approach will work in MLB -- and I am collecting the data.

Please visit my blog regularly for free picks -- and some of the sports betting biases ideas I am studying (and using!).

Today's free play of the day: Take the Over in  the NHL Grand Salami.  Over 44.5 in 8 games.

Tuesday Free Pick - Pick Six - 4/5/11

We are going for 6 wins in a row on our blog.

We are looking to keep the hot streak going by taking TB today in MLB.  It's a tough game vs. LAA and Jer. Weaver -- but TB is at home and has a solid J. Niemann on the mound.  We like the home field advantage and the close-to-even-odds.

Monday Free Pick - March Madness 4/4/11

We picked up another win yesterday, in MLB.  

With the big NCAA March Madness finals today -- we are going with Connecticut.  People seem to like the Butler "Cinderella story" and their back-to-back finals -- but I like ALL of the factors on CT's side...  Coaching, leadership, biggest star on the court (Walker!).   Give the points -- (and based on public sentiment, maybe the spread will continue to shrink).  

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/3/11

I am taking Texas today in MLB -- over Boston.  We are looking to stay hot -- going for 4 wins in a row.

Note that during the baseball regular season, a vast majority of the time, I will take underdogs and get PLUS money line odds -- so that winning streaks may be harder to come by.  HOWEVER, the units earned should be good in the long-term.

Saturday Free Pick - March Madness 4/2/11

We have been staying hot -- and are going for three wins in a row.  Our blog's free picks have gone 10-3 in our last 13 plays-of-the-day.  We're going with a March Madness play today.

We like Butler -- based on their experience, several stats, and VCU's recent hot play (which we believe could be creating some value).  Here is some interesting analysis on the Final Four.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 4/1/11

Today's free pick is in MLB.  I am taking Texas, at home.