- Lean to home teams. In addition to the regular reasons why home teams might have value -- this bias may be particularly true during spring training because some visiting players may not make a road trip (during meaningless spring training games). And if that player happens to be a star player, we have value.
- Although some people think that spring training means nothing, there IS a correlation between regular season and spring training results -- so take a look at team "strength."
- Fading the public -- especially taking into account the above biases can add value as well.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Sunday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training Pick & Biases 3/13/11
Today's play of the day is on the San Diego Padres. This play fits many of the biases I have studied and researched for spring training. The biases below are based on a real analysis of spring training data that goes back over several years and thousands of spring training games: