I thought this article was interesting. It made me think -- and try to analyze where we can find the most value in the sports betting world. I also checked out some stats at Covers.com, another great sports betting website. In particular, I looked at ATS records for teams during 2010 to see if there was any pattern that might emerge.
Here are some observations and notes as we get set for 2011.
- Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
- The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
- In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
- A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
- Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
- The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
- Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
- The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!
Happy New Year!