Saturday, January 22, 2011

NFL Betting Systems -- Playoffs

I recently noticed that one of my more popular blog posts -- is the mention about my book on "NFL Betting Systems," available at Amazon. The post is at this link:

In the book, I collaborated with SportsInsights and used an academic approach to study long-term data and NFL betting systems. There are some variations and methods that seemed to work even better for the NFL playoffs.

With tomorrow's NFL Conference Championships coming up fast, I wanted to highlight some indicators and betting systems that I use for the NFL Playoffs:
  • As always, I look at public sentiment.
  • I also weigh public opinion against the media and "big" stories that can sway the public and create value.
  • NFL regular season performance can, of course, tell a lot about how strong a team really is: how good is the defense, how have they done against quality opponents?
  • Line movement and live value can be a good indicator. Sometimes, we grab the line value, and sometimes, on small line movements, we like to follow what the syndicates may be doing.
The parity in today's NFL makes for some interesting results. Just think of the Jets taking out the Patriots after getting whipped just a few weeks earlier!

I will post my NFL picks later today.