Reflections on 2010

As we get ready for a new year, it's always nice to reflect on the year that is coming to an end.

I thought this article was interesting. It made me think -- and try to analyze where we can find the most value in the sports betting world. I also checked out some stats at Covers.com, another great sports betting website. In particular, I looked at ATS records for teams during 2010 to see if there was any pattern that might emerge.

Here are some observations and notes as we get set for 2011.

• Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
• The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
• In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
• A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
• Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
• The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
• Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
• The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!

Happy New Year!

Happy Holidays, Thank you

Happy Holidays from my family to yours. A quick thank you to our readers. Our readership is growing -- and as we grow -- we'll add more content, and more frequently.

In addition, please let us know what kind of information -- and what sports -- you are most interested in.

We'll continue to post about major sporting events and championships. We'll also blog about research ideas, analytics -- and even some selections here and there.

It's been a good football season; thanks to everyone who has purchased my NFL book and / or my College Football Book on betting systems.

Happy New Year!

Media and the Sports Marketplace

The media seems to be catching on to sports betting and sports gambling as a real financial marketplace. Check out this Wall Street Journal article on contrarian methods applied to sports betting -- and in particular, the NFL sports marketplace.

The Wall St Journal article is called: "A Contrarian's Guide to Football Betting."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704774604576035652248983350.html?mod=ITP_personaljournal_3

NHL Salami

A quick update on the Grand Salami totals play. I am starting to collect data; the data is still very sparse, but the Over for the Grand Salami still seems to be a good play. At some point, I will develop some guidelines for when the value isn't there (for instance, if the grand total is set way too high).

Football Results and Book's Research

The methods described in my books have had a great start to the football season, with college football hitting at more than a 60% rate, and the NFL currently close to 60%. Long-term results are not this good, but my research has shown that there is a definite edge to contrarian approaches in sports gambling.

In essence, I try to maximize value by studying public sentiment, getting clues from the media (newspapers, radio, television), and studying line movement.

Check out the college football research and approaches, which have been particularly hot.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1609700066?ie=UTF8&tag=sportsinves03-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1609700066

World Series

I like the Giants. I ALSO like when different factors, angles, and trends agree. Multiple factors that line up in one direction yield better results.

I think that the press and many sports fans think that Texas will take home the World Series after they beat the Yankees by an average of 6 runs in their 4 wins (beating the Yankees 4 games to 2). These short series, especially in baseball, are not very meaningful. We think there is value on the SF Giants.

We like that the Who Will Win analysis matches up with this selection.

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/10/championship-traits-that-win-world.html

NHL Grand Salami -- Totals

I have been toying with this idea about NHL totals (total goals scored by both teams for that given day's NHL games). Many sportsbooks offer a line for total goals scored in the NHL for that day. Some books call this the "Grand Salami."

I originally thought that since much of the public generally leans to "overs" -- that it might be good to take "under" for the entire Grand Salami. I didn't have a source of historical data on this type of bet, so I started to collect data...

After just a short while, it appears that you can capture the statistical "tail" in some ways. In any given game, the current total of about 5.5 goals is a good over/under line for the total. However, there is a certain percentage of games that might be 8+ goal games (and even higher).

This seems like it can skew the results to the over side a bit (you can have a 10 goal game for instance at 6-4, but you can't have fewer than 1 goal in a game).

this play is also fun because you sort of have "action" on every NHL game that day... We'll keep an eye on this play...

My article on Contrarian Sports Investing

Here is an excerpt from an article I helped put together with some analysts at SportsInsights.

Contrarian Methods

How can we capture the inherent returns of the sports market? One method is to use a contrarian approach and bet against the public to capture value. This is one reason why we collect and study "betting percentages" from several major online sports books. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of the market action - and carve out the performance of the "general public."

For the complete text of the article, please click here:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Getting-an-Edge-in-Sports-Betting:-Contrarian-Sports-Investing&id=5137666

College Football & NFL

We're getting set for the NFL and college football season. We'll use our regular toolbox of handicapping tools to find value in the sports betting world.

If there is interest, we'll post more information over time.

My Book on College Football Betting Systems

Please check out my book on college football betting systems, which applies a businesslike approach to "investing" in the sports betting world.

The entire link is below:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1609700066?ie=UTF8&tag=sportsinves03-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1609700066

My Book on NFL Betting Systems

Please check out my book on NFL Betting Systems. I take an analytical and academic view of the NFL sports betting marketplace and try to study ways of obtaining value in the NFL marketplace.

The book is called, "Sports Investing: NFL Betting System" -- and has been one of the best sellers in its category.

The entire link is here:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1609700082?ie=UTF8&tag=sportsinves03-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1609700082

Blog, Book, Publisher

Earlier this year, I contributed to another sports book. Soon, I will be coming out with a few books on specific sports betting systems that focus on contrarian value methods applied to football: both for professional football (NFL) and college football. Please keep your eye out for the books, which should be out before football season starts!

I started this blog at the suggestion of my publisher, BCDadvisors, to get the word out for the book. I'd like to thank my publisher for the ease in which my ideas are getting "down on paper." I also think that they had a nice marketing plan "thought out" for the book.

Note that I list several other blogs in my blog list (some are suggested by BCDadvisors, but I don't mind helping fellow authors if it's interesting info). I've always liked trading and finance -- which I think applies to the sports betting world!

Happy 4th of July!

Who Wins? (Playoff Series)

This website compiles historical data on "Who Wins" seven-game playoff series. We can use probability and statistics to compute the expected results -- and history DOES prove the numbers correct. There ARE some additional reasons to visit this site:

• Home / away (schedule) impacts results,
• Results vary a bit by sport (some sports are more "random" than others.

I love this website -- and think it can be useful for sports futures during playoff series.

http://whowins.com/

Cinco de Mayo

It is Cinco de mayo -- and baseball is in full swing. Baseball is one of the best sports for finding contrarian value. I believe that baseball is one of the better sports for professional bettors and syndicates (some call syndicates the "smart money") for a few reasons:

• MLB is still the "National Past-time."
• Although the NFL is hugely popular, there are many more games in the MLB schedule.
• Baseball also seemingly has more randomness to the sport. For instance, NFL champions often go 14-2 (.875) or 13-3 (.813) -- while the best teams in MLB play about .600 ball.
• The point spread is a great equalizer -- as is the moneyline. However, I believe that many sports fans don't understand the moneyline very well -- and instead, count up their wins and losses (and wonder why their bankroll is decreasing).

If we see more interest on the blog, we'll continue to post more information and more selections. Thank you for reading.

March Madness: Duke

I like to find value in the sports marketplace, but sometimes I think that even the media and fan favorites will take it. I like Duke -- and think (hope) that Butler's Cinderella story comes to an end. Coach K has not brought home a Final Four Championship in a few years -- but I think he does it here.

The sports psychology factors below, include factors such as coaching and experience. This can be key.

Here is analysis from Who Will Win...

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/04/march-madness-final-four.html

Super Bowl - Saints

I like the Saints for several reasons. I think that the Saints are actually better than the Colts. The Colts captured a lot of media -- and public -- attention with their run at a perfect season. Although they a few "meaningless" games at the end of the season, many consider them "perfect."

The Saints have put up some monster numbers and are a truly "live dog."

Public sentiment is clearly on the veteran Colts, but there seems to be value on the Saints. In addition, I found this sports psychology angle to be interesting:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/bookreviews/book_granat_and_chin_2010.aspx

Sports Betting Websites I like

As we start a new year, and as we get this blog started, I thought I would share a few of my favorite websites.

• Covers.com is a great website. Lots of content and articles, some of the best sports betting forums on the internet -- and great stats. In particular, this is the first site I go to when I want to study value and performance against the spread.
• Sportsinsights.com is also a site I use a lot. Their betting percentages and research are great tools. I use their betting percentages to get a feel for "public perception" and "public sentiment." These are some of the best tools out there -- and after years studying the sports gambling world -- might be one of the best edges available. The edge is not much -- but it is "real."

Good luck.