Sunday's Free Play - MLB 7/31/11

We like LAA +121 today; we like the + money line odds.  Weaver at +odds is a nice value -- although of course, he's visiting Detroit and fellow ace, Verlander.  Still, we like the value.  - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/30/11

I always thought that P. Humber had a great pitcher's name -- and he's coming into his own at age 28.  He has a huge pitching match-up against the Red Sox today.  The CWS and Humber meet Jon Lester -- but at least the White Sox are at home.  We like the juicy +140 odds on a pitcher with a 1.1 WHIP and 3.27 ERA.  - cb

Friday Free Pick (3-in-a-row) 7/29/11

We are going for three in a row again, after big dog, Houston, won yesterday.  Today, we are going with the Washington Nationals and Wang -- over his former NYC rivals (when he was a Yankee) -- the Mets.  Public sentiment is on the Mets, so we like value on the Nationals.  - cb

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/28/11

We're going with Houston and W. Rodriguez tonight; some good value.  If you don't like the hugely long odds on Houston as visitors -- you can take the run-line and get the +1.5 runs.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/27/11

Weaver put a stop to our winning streak with a tight 2-1 pitcher's duel last night.  Today, we're looking to stay hot with the Mets and Pelfrey, visiting the Reds.  Public sentiment is strongly on the Reds, so the line has jumped a bit towards the Reds.  We like that line value.

Tuesday Free Pick - Score Four 7/26

We're going for four wins in a row today, with a play on Cleveland, at home, with young pitching stud J. Tomlin on the mound.  He's going up against Jer. Weaver -- so it will be a tough game -- but because of Weaver's name, we think there is value on Cleveland.   - jc

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/25/11

We're going for three wins in a row -- by going with the surprising Pirates again.  James McDonald has put together a string of quality games and has lowered his ERA to 4.15.  He has always had the potential and looks like he could be finding his "zone."  We'll take the Pirates on the road at huge odds, against ace Tim Hudson and the Braves, at home.  Some people might like the run-line in this game with the odds stacked so high against the Pirates.

Hudson has been matching his career stats at age 36, with a 3.4 ERA and 1.1 WHIP, but we'll go with youth over age in this game.  For the purposes of our blog, we'll take the Pirates on the run-line.  - cb & jc

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 7/24/11

We like the line value in the Pittsburgh game. The line has moved from Pittsburgh as a very slight dog to Pittsburgh +110 and +112 at many books. We like that kind of value for the surprising Pirates -- at home -- and Morton, who is in his prime years. Lohse -- and his 1.1 WHIP and 3.44 ERA -- is on the mound for the Cardinals. - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/23/11

We are going with an "ugly play" by taking KC over TB. KC is at home -- and the "ugliness" of the last place "KC pick" has created line movement value -- with KC going from a very slight favorite to plus odds. - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/22/11

We are taking the Pirates at home, with plus money line odds and Maholm on the mound versus big-name Carpenter. Carpenter is still pitching solidly, but is aging at age 36, while Maholm is close to his prime years at age 29 -- and a 3.06 ERA. Take the Pirates... - jc

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/21/11

Note that there are a lot of early games in baseball today. We like Tampa Bay, at home, with Shields on the mound. Shields, at plus odds, looks like a huge value. We'll take it and look for Tampa Bay to get back in the playoff race soon. - cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/20/11

I am taking SD & Harang and the line value -- on the road, visiting Florida and Nolasco. It looks ugly on paper, but the +157 odds is pretty juicy.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 7/19/11

We're going with a common name: HAPP on the mound for Houston.  Happ has underperformed this season -- and we hope that he'll show us a glimpse of what is still a lifetime ERA of below 4.00.  Grab the line movement value and Happ at home.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/18/11

The Tampa Bay-Yankee game is seeing some heavy one-sided betting action -- and we like the line value on the Rays.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Yankees -- so we'll grab the value on TB at home -- against big-name AJ Burnett.

Sunday Free Pick - WNBA 7/17/11

We're going with the big double-digit dog value in women's hoops -- and taking Tulsa +12 over the NY Liberty.  The game has a late afternoon start (eastern time).   - cb

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/16/11

I am going with SD and young pitcher, Luebke -- over Zito & the Giants.  Public sentiment is on the Giants -- but the oddsmakers still have SD as the favorite.  Luebke is a relatively unknown quantity -- but his lifetime WHIP of 0.99 and ERA of 2.93 -- and youth seems to have a lot of potential and upside.  We'll take "youth over age" again -- and love the home field advantage.  - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/15/11

Today, we are going against the surprising Pirates -- and taking Houston and Myers, at home.  SportsInsights had a good mid-season update and noted that the Pirates have been the best team ATS so far this season.  We think that the Pirates are over-valued at this point -- and like Houston at home.

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/14/11

We are going with Toronto and Reyes on the mound over the A-Rod-less Yankees.  Jo-Jo Reyes is age 26 and seems to be improving as he nears his prime.  We'll take him at home over the Yanks.

Wednesday Free Pick - WNBA 7/13/11

It's the MLB All-Star Break -- but we're constantly monitoring the sports world.  Today, we'll take a play on the  big visiting dogs, Tulsa Shock, getting double-digit points in women's hoops (WNBA).  Our research shows that double-digit dogs are often good value in the WNBA.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 7/10/11

We are going with Seattle and young pitching star Felix Hernandez over the LAA.  Seattle is visiting, but we like getting Hernandez, with his lifetime 3.2 ERA and 1.2 WHIP -- at good, positive, moneyline odds.

The All-Star Break is coming up -- so no pick on Monday.  -jc

Saturday Free Pick - WNBA 7/9/11

Today, we are going with a bias in women's hoops: the WNBA.  We like big visiting dog, the Washington Mystic, getting +9 points.  We like the big points + the line movement -- which indicates that some sharps like the big dog as well.  - jc

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/8/11

We're going with one of the games with the heaviest betting action: the Red Sox-Oriole game.  Bosox pitcher Beckett has been "on fire" this season, with an ERA of around 2.00.  His record is 7-3.  We're going to use this as a potential way to get value, on the lowly Orioles.  The O's have a good, young pitcher in Zach Britton going for them.  To "even" the odds up a bit, you can take the run-line if you like.  Otherwise you can get about +200 odds.   - jc & cb

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 7/7/11

We like the value -- based on misleading stats --  on the KC Royals and Danny Duffy today.  Detroit starter Max Scherzer is a misleading 9-4.  While he is a decent pitcher, his win-loss record is inflating public sentiment on Detroit in today's game.  KC pitcher D. Duffy is just 22 years old -- so he is inconsistent -- but shows promise.  We'll take KC & Duffy at home today -- with nice moneyline odds of around +120.  - jc

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/6/11

We like the CWS with E. Jackson on the mound.  The pricing is a little steep, but we like the home-field advantage for the White Sox against KC, who has been poor on the road.  Some people may like to take the run-line if they don't want to pay the -145 odds.

Note that this is an early afternoon game.  - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 7/5/11

Verlander has been red-hot this year, so we're going to take the contrarian route -- and go with LAA and Haren on the mound.  We like the home-field bias, combined with "ugly" value and public sentiment on Verlander.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/4/11

Happy July 4th!!

Today, we're going with Nolasco and Florida, at home, against the Phillies.  Noly is slowly developing into the steady, ace, starting pitcher we thought he would turn out to be.  The Phils may struggle against Noly -- especially on the road.  Take Noly and get the + odds.  - cb

Sunday Free Pick - Tennis 7/3/11

We are going with a tennis play today.  We like red-hot Djokovic, who has gone an amazing 47-1 this season -- and was taken the number one ranking in the world from Nadal.  The surface favors Djokovic, and he is a slight underdog.  It should be a great match.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/2/11

We are going with one of our old picks -- Houston and Happ -- a good, solid pitcher.  Baseball is often difficult to put together a long winning streak because value is often on moneyline underdogs.  We like the value on Happ, at home, against the Red Sox.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 7/1/11

We're going with Bud Norris and the Astros, at home -- to try for two in a row -- and get hot again.  Bud Norris is looking like he may be fulfilling some of his promise.  He is also entering his prime career years.  He IS going up against the Red Sox and ageless Wakefield, but we like the potential upside of youth and potential downside of age.   - jb, cb