Final Four - 2014 March Madness

In today's semifinal games, I like U-Conn +7 and the Under 127.  Some decent points for an expected low-scoring game.

In the later game, I like Kentucky -1 (line has ticked down to -1 at some books!) and Over 138.5.  It's been a great tournament as usual, and I am psyched for today's games.

Super Bowl Pool

I love pools -- so check this out: Square Pool Odds -- by quarter!  Hope I get that 0, 3 or 4!

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

I will have my Super Bowl picks up in a few days.  I can tell you that I am on the under!  

NFL Championship Games

I am joining the side of the books!  I like both slight favorites.  Many fans and analysts are jumping on SF and NE's bandwagon because of their recent good -- and Seattle and Denver's slightly lesser play.  However, research has shown that recent performance is often overrated.  I am giving the small points.

Taking Denver and NE; also lean the unders.

Tennis, anyone?

Here's a great story on this quant dude betting on tennis (!!).

For someone who says he bets millions of dollars on tennis a year, sports gambler Elihu Feustel doesn’t watch many matches.

“Which one is Granollers?” Feustel says, referring to Marcel Granollers, a Spaniard ranked 35th in the world. “Is he the one that’s good on clay courts?”

Feustel, from South Bend, Indiana, says he doesn’t need to pay attention to who the players on the men’s ATP World Tour are to double his money. He relies on an algorithm he created using data from 260,000 matches to make about 30 bets a day on Grand Slams such as the Australian Open, which started Jan. 13.

Check this out:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-15/tennis-quant-s-system-doubles-his-money-without-knowing-players.html

BCS -- take the points

In this year's BCS game, I like Auburn and the points.  Too many people are expecting a blowout for Florida State.  Although the public is more on Auburn than I would like, I like the fact that Auburn played a much tougher schedule than Florida State.

I looked up some stats -- and this is the widest spread in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) ever in a BCS national championship game.  AND -- when there has been a reasonable spread in terms of SOS, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 or 5-1, depending on the spread you look at...

Look for a closer game than expected and take the points.