Don't Bet the House: When it goes too far!

Crazy story at Yahoo.com...

Betting on football matches has long been an integral part of the game for supporters but Henry Dhabasani's attempts to 'make things a little more interesting' have had dire consequences.

Dhabasani, of the Iganga district of Eastern Uganda, has lost his home as a result of Manchester United's 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Sunday after a high-stakes wager with a neighbour.

Fellow local and United fan Rashid Yiga put up his car and wife as collateral in the deal, emerging the victor on the back of Robin van Persie's 27th-minute header at Old Trafford.

Read more here:
http://sg.sports.yahoo.com/news/extra-time-arsenal-supporter-left-homeless-manchester-united-184100023--spt.html

2013 US Open - Men's Final

In the Men's Final, I see some good value on Novak Djokovic.  Rafael Nadal has been ridiculously hot, but also sometimes inconsistent (like the first round loss at Wimbledon) since his return from injury.  Historically, based on their styles of play, Djokovic is a better player on hard courts.

Djoko is a slight underdog because Nadal has been so hot.  We like that value and see Djokovic as an undervalued number one seed.  Some bettors might like to take the +120 that we have seen on Djoko, while others may prefer the spread (typically based on sets, sometimes on games).

It should be a great match.  Enjoy!  

NHL Finals - 2013

At this point in the series, I LOVE the Black Hawks.

Besides Game Three, the Black Hawks have been outplaying the Bruins, with the B's being held in the games by hot goaltending.  When the goaltending evens out -- I think we'll see a big win by the Black Hawks on Saturday, a Stanley Cup parade in the Windy City.

Black Hawks in 6.

NBA Finals - 2013

I like the Miami Heat for many reasons.  Although some are comparing two great players, Lebron James is in his prime -- and will most likely go down in history as one of the very all-time greats.  I believe that Lebron James will lead his team to another title.  Miami is hurting a bit, but the age of the Spurs makes up for this.

I like the Heat in 5 games, although I enjoyed the probabilities in this article:
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/keeping-score-key-statistics-favor-heat/

I would also take the Heat vs. the spread as I believe that there is value.

March Madness Finals (4/8/13)

I am taking Michigan plus the points in tonight's College Basketball final.  Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball -- and has a dangerous 3-point FG percentage.  Several of my sources -- and I -- expect this game to be a tossup, so I love getting the dog plus four points.

One of the analysts that I follow, the "Who Will Win" authors have this as their prediction:

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Link: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2013/04/ncaa-mens-championship-game-2013.html

Some Good Info for Your NCAA Brackets

Here are results for the Round of 64 in the Big NCAA Tournament.  I am using these historical odds in combination with point spreads for my first round picks.

Starting at Seed 5 and lower, the better seed is 66% or less to win their first round game!
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnsAr9S-QB_AdEdmWm9QTTRfTVhER0ZGTUlYb3F2RGc#gid=0

Super Bowl 47

The big game is approaching, and I will be on the San Francisco 49ers.  Some analysts point to the Ravens' momentum, but I don't see that besides a few big wins in the playoffs.  Anything can happen in a small sample size, but I believe we'll see a reversion to the mean -- and see a blowout win for the 49ers.

San Francisco has been consistently good this season, and I believe we may see a blowout win like we used to see in the 80's and 90's.  Here are some books I have helped to write.

2013 BCS: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

As we near this year's BCS Championship game, there are plenty of story lines.  We like Alabama to win big in this game.  We'll wait for some of our regular sources, to add to our analysis and level of betting, but we definitely prefer the Crimson Tide.  Sure, Notre Dame is undefeated and eked out Alabama to have the best defense in the nation.  However, Alabama also has one of the nation's best offenses, while ND's offense is below average.

The ND "D" might be able to hold off Alabama more than most teams.  We see the teams evenly-matched on D -- BUT Alabama's O is much better than Notre Dame's.  Some would say that Alabama's stats are even under-rated due to Coach Saban not running up the score.  

Alabama has two 1,000 yard rushers and a QB with a 173 QB rating.  Notre Dame, of course, is not a pushover, but Alabama has been winning big for several years.

In terms of sports marketplace action, there are indications of syndicates taking Alabama to roll over Notre Dame.  Most bets are on ND, but the line has become extended in Alabama's favor.

Read more here (will add more as we come across good articles):

• http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/21486098/best-dynasty-ever-alabama-can-close-its-case-with-another-title