2012 World Series

We like the "Who Will Win" analysis as a different angle for championships...

The analysis points to Detroit, based on pitching leadership and fielding consistency.  Read more here:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1209051-the-2012-world-series-analysis-of-sports-psychology-factors


In addition, this year's World Series matches up one team that swept their semi-final series (Detroit) versus a team that went to 7 games.  Since MLB went to divisions in 1969 (and the MLB playoffs included at least a semi-final round) -- we were curious how teams fared based on how well they performed in the semi-final round.

As we might expect in these short series, there was no definitive answer.

• Teams that swept the semi-final round (in 3 or 4 games) and played against a team that needed more games to get to the World Series (2 or more games longer) -- are just 4-6 in the World Series.
• On the other hand, teams that took 2 or fewer games to get to the World Series than their opponents (in the semis) are 8-6 in the World Series (this includes the 4-6 sweepers).  
• That is, teams that had an easier semi-final generally performed better in the World Series -- unless they swept the semis!

2012 NBA Finals

I like Miami in the NBA finals.  With Oklahoma City up one game to none (winning at home), there is also additional value on a futures/series play.

In Game 1, Miami led for much of the game, until OKC's big run at the end of the 3rd quarter.  Although OKC is favored, we like the value on Miami.  Miami's defense, experience in last year's finals -- to me -- makes them a better overall team.  We will see -- but I am on Miami!

Here's the "Who Will Win" analysis that I like:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/





























   

Final Four: ALSO in College Football?!

Check this out: the BCS looks like it will FINALLY get a playoff going for the College Football National Championship.

Leaders of the Bowl Championship Series will present to their constituents the option of a four-team college football playoff beginning in 2015, BCS executive director Bill Hancock said Thursday afternoon.

Associated Press

Bowl Championship Series executive director Bill Hancock

Hancock said commissioners from the BCS conferences will present to conference constituents two to seven options for a four-team playoff. Those options include holding semifinals at campus sites, as well as neutral-site games. A championship game will be held at a neutral site, either an existing bowl or a site that bids in advance to host the game.

Hancock acknowledged that if a four-team playoff is approved by the 11 participating conferences and the BCS’s presidential oversight committee, it will be a “seismic event.” Major-college football never has had a playoff. BCS leaders have ruled out 16- and eight-team playoffs.

Read more here:
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2012/04/26/college-football-bcs-bosses-want-four-team-playoff/?mod=WSJBlog 

2012 NCAA Championship Game

In tonight's game, I like Kentucky to win the championship, and locked in Kentucky -6.  Both teams are powerhouses -- and some say that Kentucky is one of the best in history.  I wouldn't argue with that because Kentucky excels on both sides of the court -- with excellent FG% and Three-point shooting % -- as well as the same stats on the defensive side.

Sports Insights' betting percentages point to Kansas as a contrarian play, and there is some slight line value based on the opening line -- but we grabbed the -6 to prevent any further line slippage.

On championship games, we also like the "Who Will Win" analysis -- which points to Kentucky as well.

The National Bracket (2012 March Madness)

Here's some good March Madness info:

We love this link: the "National Bracket" which shows the cumulative entries -- so you can pick where others are not!

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/nationalBracket?entryID=4725386

Some good ideas and numbers:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/images2/SportsInsights_Expert_Bracketology_Guide.pdf

Our favorite March Madness website for bracket pools:

• ESPN.com
• CBSsports.com

Fading Kentucky -- March Madness is here!

March Madness is here -- and even the conference championship games has us fired up!  We loved this analysis by Sports Insights -- and will be fading Kentucky tonight.  Take the big points and fade Kentucky -- and hope Georgia can stay with top-ranked Kentucky.

I helped to put together a paper for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference that starts tomorrow.  You can find the paper here.

2012 Super Bowl (Patriots - Giants)

My free play is on New England to cover the spread against the Giants.  I especially love this if you can get NE -2.5.  The key 3 number takes some excess value out of the picture, but I still love NE -3.  The Giants have come on strong -- but are less consistent than the Patriots.  I would take Brady over Eli Manning any day...

Here is some good coverage of the Super Bowl:

1. SportsInsights' Super Bowl blog summary.  I read all of the links in this post:   http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/02/weekend-sports-update-super-bowl/
2. Who Will Win: I love these sports psychology angles for a different edge.
3. Covers' Super Bowl coverage.

2012 NFL Conference Championships

In today's AFC & NFC Championship games, we like San Francisco and Baltimore to beat the spread -- and perhaps even for Baltimore to advance to the Super Bowl against SF.  New England is an interesting story; they have looked old and weaker earlier in the season, but then finished strongly -- but against an over-rated and generally weak schedule.  Thus, we like Baltimore a lot in the AFC game.

In the NFC game, we think it can potentially be a blowout -- for a strong 49er team with the top-ranked NFL defense -- against an over-achieving Giant team.  Here are some links to info we like:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-nfc-championship-game.html

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-16/

http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=262219

BCS Game: #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

We like Alabama in the big game tonight. It will be interesting to see how the #1 defense (Alabama) does... but I like them! Also check out the Who Will Win analysis.

Free Play: NFL Wildcard Weekend (1/7/12)

Happy New Year!

Here's a nice mention of the Sports Investing Books at Sports Insights -- plus a great betting angle.  We like Atlanta as well.

Please take a look at Sports Insights’ series of books on Sports Investing that highlight some of the sports betting trends that we look at — that drive our betting strategies — and have helped create seven years of winning NFL plays.

With the playoffs starting, there are fewer games on the board, so we called one of our offshore line managers.  He had the Falcons-Giants game circled and said, “Some early sharps are on the Falcons and that pushed the line towards the Falcons even though the smaller bettors are on the Giants.”

The betting percentages are not as lopsided as we would like, but we like the “smart money line movement” especially on the huge key number of three (3). 

Read more here:
http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-focus-on-nfl/