Thursday Free Pick - CF 9/29/11

We like the line movement and line value on PITT in the Thursday night college football game.  The betting percentages are strongly on So. Florida -- so we will take the other side.  We love getting the key number of 3 due to the public betting on the favorite.  Take Pitt and the 3.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/28/11

We like the Mets at home in this year-end MLB game.  There is nice line value for the Mets -- and there is extra motivation playing at home near the end of the season.  

Monday Free Pick - MNF 9/26/11

We like the Cowboys tonight -- IF you can grab the key number of -3.  Pay the extra juice and get the 3 if you can.  Above the -3, there's a bit less value...   

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/25/11

We like Sports Insights' Marketwatch play on Indy +11 today.  The line has definitely been "pumped up" with all of the media talk about how great Manning is...  We like the injury over-reaction value.  

Saturday Free Pick - CF 9/24/11

Our free play of the day is on Pittsburgh over Notre Dame.  This game is seeing the heaviest betting action -- and we like the line value combines with the home field advantage.  Pitt +7.5!

Thursday Free Pick - MLB 9/22/11

We are going with Toronto over LAA tonight.  This game is one of the heaviest-bet games and there is some line value because of the lopsided-betting action on the Angels.  Take Toronto as a home dog.

We also thought these power ratings were interesting:

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/21/11

We're going with a good contrarian value play in baseball today -- we're taking Oakland over Texas as a live home dog in a late game.  The betting percentages are huge on Texas, giving us a bit of line value.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/20/11

After a bit of a cold streak, we think the Phillies are going to break out in a big way in game two of their doubleheader.  After a huge year, this team is NOT going to go into the playoffs in a bad way.  Take the Phillies on the runline to reduce the steep odds.  

Monday Free Pick - MLB 9/19/11

We're going to take the Cubs and Coleman -- a nice home dog value.  The public likes the visiting Brewers, but the smart money is taking the Cubs.  We normally like more line value -- but we'll tail the sharps and take some decent odds at around +140.  

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/18/11

We like the big points on Carolina -- combined with the public betting on Green Bay like this is a done deal.  We'll take Carolina in a truly "ugly" play!

Saturday Free Pick - CFB 9/17/11

Today is College Football Saturday, and our favorite pick of the day is  No. Ill +17.5 over Wisky.  This is one of the heaviest-bet games of the day - and we like the +17.5 points you can grab.  As mentioned in our book on college football betting trends, we like games with a lot of betting activity -- as well as home dogs -- with lopsided-betting activity.  

Thursday Free Play - CFB 9/15/11

Kershaw and the Dodgers got us back on the winning track.  Today, we are going with a college football play and taking Miss. St at home.  The betting percentage is greater than 80% on LSU so we will take the other side and take the home dog.  

Wednesday Free Play - MLB 9/14/11

Kershaw at -135 to -140 odds -- at home -- is a solid value to us.  Kershaw boasts a career ERA of 2.9 -- and this year his ERA is about 2.3!  Grab it before the odds worsen...    

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/13/11

Today, we like the OVER in the Detroit game.  Verlander is having a great year, and we don't want to get in the way of the Detroit steamroller, but we think there is value on the Over in today's game.  - jc

Monday Free Pick - NFL 9/12/11

We're going with the Dolphins today, because the public is all over the Patriots.  This matches up with Sports Insights' Marketwatch column; they like the Dolphins as well -- due to the divisional rivalry and the extreme betting percentages.    

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/11/11

How often can you get the mighty Colts + double-digit points?  BUT how often is Peyton Manning injured?  Oftentimes, we see the public and sportsbooks overreact to injuries.  Manning is certainly valuable -- but he is aging and even without Manning, the Colts are a very strong team.  Take the Colts and shop for the 10 points if you can get it.  

Saturday Free Pick - CF 9/10/11

We like Penn State over Alabama today.  We like the double-digit points for a home dog -- especially whenthe public is all over the favorite.  Some good value based on research in my book.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 9/9/11

We like the Phillies in tonight's game.  The Phils are one of the great teams in recent baseball history -- and getting them as slight favorites, although on the road, is a good value.  Halladay goes up against Marcum -- but we like the Phillies in this potential playoff preview.  Marcum has been red-hot lately, leading to some value on the Phillies!

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 9/8/11

We're taking the UNDER in the NFL season opener.  The line has edged upwards -- giving us some line value.  We like the under with the Green Bay defense -- and a Saints offense that hasn't been the same since their Super Bowl.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/7/11

We're taking the UNDER in the late game today: Seattle at Anaheim.  We like the under 9 (decent odd / key number in MLB) in this low-scoring season.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/6/11

We're going to take Colorado and Hammel today.  There is decent line value based on public sentiment on the visiting Arizona D-Backs.

Monday Free Pick - MLB 9/5/11

On Labor Day Monday, we are taking Seattle -- with the run line.  They are a huge underdog -- but in an expected relatively low-scoring game, we like the value of Seattle +1.5.  

SportsInsights Research - College Football

SportsInsights shows that contrarian methods can work as a standalone method to add value to handicapping.

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/ncaa-football/bet-against-public/2010-11-season-review.aspx

Sunday Free Pick - NCAAF 9/4/11

We're going with another large favorite and taking WVU in college football.  Grab the -23 we still see -- and look for the cover by this big program.  - cb & jc

Home Field Advantage

This article discusses home field advantage (although not ATS).  My research shows that in some sports, there is an edge for contrarian methods AND home field advantage (like in baseball and college football).  However, in some sports, visitors have the edge ATS (like in the NBA).

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/articles/2011/09/03/in_sports_there_really_is_no_place_like_home/?s_campaign=8315

It’s a big deal. Statistics show that Major League Baseball teams win 54 percent of their home games. The benefit is even higher in other sports, according to the economist who compiled the figures. In the NHL the home teams win 57 percent of the time, in the NFL it’s 58 percent, and in the NBA it’s 62 percent.

What’s so great about being at home?

Tobias J. Moskowitz, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, ran decades of numbers in an effort to explain the well-known phenomenon, and he concluded that the single biggest contributor is - get ready to start booing - officiating bias by umpires and referees, unintentional though it may be.

Saturday Free Pick - College Football 9/3/11

We're taking Illinois -21 at home over Arkansas State.  We normally do not like heavy favorites -- but in college football, there are some cases where big favorites can have value.  Grab the powerhouse minus the big points for the cover.  - jc & cb

Friday Free Pick - NCAA Football 9/2/11

Early line movement showed that some sharps were on Baylor in Friday's game.  We'll take Baylor at home plus the +4.5 points at home.  We're tagging along with the sharps.  - jc

Thursday Free Pick - College Football 9/1/11

College football is here!  We're taking a big dog at home -- Memphis + 31 points over Miss. St.  Due to public sentiment, there is about 3 points of line value.