Monday Free Pick - MLB 9/19/11

We're going to take the Cubs and Coleman -- a nice home dog value.  The public likes the visiting Brewers, but the smart money is taking the Cubs.  We normally like more line value -- but we'll tail the sharps and take some decent odds at around +140.  

Saturday Free Pick - CFB 9/17/11

Today is College Football Saturday, and our favorite pick of the day is  No. Ill +17.5 over Wisky.  This is one of the heaviest-bet games of the day - and we like the +17.5 points you can grab.  As mentioned in our book on college football betting trends, we like games with a lot of betting activity -- as well as home dogs -- with lopsided-betting activity.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 8/31/11

We'll take Seattle in a late game today based on anti-public sentiment.  - cb

Friday Free Pick (3-in-a-row) 7/29/11

We are going for three in a row again, after big dog, Houston, won yesterday.  Today, we are going with the Washington Nationals and Wang -- over his former NYC rivals (when he was a Yankee) -- the Mets.  Public sentiment is on the Mets, so we like value on the Nationals.  - cb

Monday Free Pick - MLB 7/18/11

The Tampa Bay-Yankee game is seeing some heavy one-sided betting action -- and we like the line value on the Rays.  Public sentiment is on the visiting Yankees -- so we'll grab the value on TB at home -- against big-name AJ Burnett.

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/16/11

I am going with SD and young pitcher, Luebke -- over Zito & the Giants.  Public sentiment is on the Giants -- but the oddsmakers still have SD as the favorite.  Luebke is a relatively unknown quantity -- but his lifetime WHIP of 0.99 and ERA of 2.93 -- and youth seems to have a lot of potential and upside.  We'll take "youth over age" again -- and love the home field advantage.  - jc & cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 7/5/11

Verlander has been red-hot this year, so we're going to take the contrarian route -- and go with LAA and Haren on the mound.  We like the home-field bias, combined with "ugly" value and public sentiment on Verlander.

Monday Free Pick - NHL 6/13/11

We are taking Vancouver to "break serve" and win on Boston's home ice and take the Stanley Cup.  Because of Boston's big wins at home, public sentiment is on Boston to win at home and go to a Game 7.  We like Vancouver and the + odds.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 6/7/11

Today, we're going with the ChiSox with Humber on the mound.  There are two good young pitchers going in this game, but we like this game for many reasons:

• CWS is at home,
• CWS has better offense,
• Pitching match-up is very close,
• Public likes Seattle's Hernandez -- so the line has been pushed up on Seattle,
• CWS has good + money line odds.  

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 5/8/11

We had a nice Saturday, with our regular free play winning -- and our Pac-man boxing play hitting at just under 2-1 odds (for the decision, without a knockout).

Today, we are on Dallas in the NBA.  They are slight favorites -- but public sentiment is still on the Lakers and Kobe -- as big-name favorites.  I like the value on Dallas; they have been a top performer during the playoffs -- and had the same record as the Lakers int he regular season.  Take Dallas at home...

Happy Mother's Day!

Derek Jeter -- value prop play

Just a fun play if you are interested.  I don't like futures/props very much (time value of money) -- but this play seemed like a good value.  Jeter is struggling -- and there are props on "when Jeter will get his 3,000th hit."  I was able to get 2-1 odds for June 21st or after.

With Jeter struggling:

• he may move down in the lineup, meaning fewer at bats.  
• In addition, although an all-time great, players often decline in terms of batting average with age.
• Public sentiment is on Jeter; he is a beloved player in deep-pocketed NYC -- and well-respected, in general.  
• Thus, I think there is value on the play of getting the hit on the latter side...  

Monday Free Pick - March Madness 4/4/11

We picked up another win yesterday, in MLB.  

With the big NCAA March Madness finals today -- we are going with Connecticut.  People seem to like the Butler "Cinderella story" and their back-to-back finals -- but I like ALL of the factors on CT's side...  Coaching, leadership, biggest star on the court (Walker!).   Give the points -- (and based on public sentiment, maybe the spread will continue to shrink).  

Friday Free Pick - NBA 3/25/11

Well, our five-game winning streak is over, but our blog has been doing fairly well.  Let's get another winning streak going.  Today, I am going with a play in the NBA.

I like New Orleans over Phoenix.  There is some good line value, combined with visiting value and anti-public sentiment.  The line opened at NO +3 and has moved to +5 recently.

Sportsinsights Highlights

Thanks for visiting my blog.  I post free picks -- in a sort of "play of the day" format -- and have been doing decently.  I also post articles related to sports betting from time to time.  Today, I wanted to highlight one of my favorite sports betting websites (Sportsinsights.com), especially because their blog helped me to pick up two units last night.  (The big NBA games: Boston-Chicago; Nuggets)

Some of my favorite sports-related links are at the bottom of this blog.  (My blog reading list is posted on the right-hand-side.)  Sportsinsights is my favorite site because I believe they offer a "real edge" in the sports gambling arena.  They collect and analyze betting lines from several real offshore sportsbooks.  More importantly, they have access to betting percentages that can be used to "poll" public sentiment and get an idea where contrarian line value might exist.

I have known the guys at Sportsinsights for many years -- and think they are stand-up guys.  Full disclosure: I have even done some research with Sportsinsights data and collaborated on their series of books.  I have performed solid academic research and have shown that a contrarian approach to sports betting provides an edge (at a statistically significant level).  Their "square plays" and "best bets" perform decently and are "true" pre-published results.

Unfortunately, even Sportsinsights does not claim to have some magic formula.  Many of their approaches are in the 53%-56% level.  However, I would rather take a small -- but real -- edge, than have my head in the clouds...  

I DO try to improve results with other handicapping methods -- but that's for another blog post.

Friday Free Pick - Pick Six? 2/18/11

Our winning pick on Thursday brings our blog's recent streak to 5 wins in a row -- so we are going for a "Pick Six" -- 6 in a row, that is.   I have been on a roll lately, but remember to "bet with your head" and use good money management.  I won't make any claims that I will win the equivalent of 60% of the time (equivalent because of the impact of moneyline bets).

However, the methods I use should help sports handicappers overcome the vig.  Please also visit one of my more popular posts on sports betting tips.

Today's sports action is particularly light -- even for a Friday at this time of the year -- because of the NBA's All-Star break.  In today's sports betting action, I like:  Dartmouth +11.5 over Columbia.  Public sentiment is on the big favorite -- so there looks to be some value on Dartmouth.  I also always like getting some "meaty" action in terms of points, and the +11.5 (hopefully more later) gives us that "value."

We'll go with Dartmouth as our "pick six" play.  Thanks for reading!

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 2/13/11

Today, I am going with a pick in the NBA: the big Miami-Boston game.  I like Boston for a few reasons, some of which are mentioned in my blog post on sports betting tips I wrote earlier today.

In particular, I like Boston, currently getting +2.5 at several books at home (!!) because:

• Public sentiment is on a red-hot Miami Heat team.  Since the Heat started the season barely above .500, they have put together the best record in the NBA.  
• Boston has been cold lately, but look for them to be "up" for this game.
• The line opened at Boston -1 at CRIS, but public sentiment quickly pushed the line to Miami as a favorite, and has continued to push the line to Boston +2.5.  I like that kind of line value.  

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price. 

Sunday - Pro Bowl & Line Value 1/30/11

I'm a softy for All-Star Games -- and today is the NFL Pro Bowl, played in Hawaii, Sunday evening, ET.  It is always so interesting to me how the sportsbooks' lines are so "sharp."  But, after all, they are in the business of making money.  On the other hand, they need to balance risk so that they are not too heavy on one side or the other.  They may sometimes lean lines to take advantage of public sentiment, but they also need to manage risk.

The line for the Pro Bowl opened with the NFC favored by 1 to 1.5 points and the total points scored set at 62.5 to 63.  This total is high for regular NFL games, but this is an end-of-season all-star game, where hard-hitting defense will be kept to a minimum.

A quick scan of recent Pro Bowl scores shows that the totals (over/under) for the NFL's All-Star game hovers right around the opening total.  Interestingly, many bettors love scoring -- and note some scores like last year's total of 75 -- or 2004 where the total surpassed 100 points!  As a result, public sentiment is on the "over" -- and has driven the line up a bit, which does give value for the under.  I like the under.  If you want a side, I lean to the NFC.

PS:  Under moved up to 64 at the time of this post; and at 2pm ET, is at 66; I will be waiting on this one...

515pm ET = 66.5

Sat Free Pick 1/29/11

I like Georgetown for several reasons: public sentiment, visiting dog getting decent [5] points, andbig-time game magnifies the potential value.

(Pardon the typos earlier today; blogged quickly from a smartphone).

NFL Conference Championships 1/22/11

In this weekend's games, I am trying to balance factors from a few areas. From my book (see earlier post today), I use an academic and scientific approach to study certain factors and find factors that yield an edge with statistical significance. Some of these factors seem stronger during the NFL playoffs. I also try to consider public sentiment (as always), and other interesting angles such as match-ups and/or traditional handicapping methods.

In the AFC game, I view the Jets as a "Seattle-plus." You may recall that Seattle snuck into the playoffs -- and after a huge win against the Saints -- were beaten fairly easily by a decent (but not great) Chicago Bear squad. The Jets had a good regular season (better in the first half) -- and coasted into the playoffs. The Jets got by an aging Colts team and then played a huge "revenge game" against bitter division rival, the Patriots (who crushed them a few weeks earlier).

Can the Jets play yet another motivated game against the Steelers on the road? The Jets and coach Rex Ryan are generating a lot of media and fan interest. Perhaps the Jets are really that good -- and can sweep a third week in a row against the likes of the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers. But I am not buying the hype -- and am taking the Steelers and giving the -3.5 points.

On the NFC side, this is a great game and a huge NFC North divisional match-up. I just believe -- and the numbers back me up - that the Packers are superior on both sides of the ball. The Bears quietly put together a better record, but Aaron Rodgers has developed into an elite QB who avoids hurting his team. Games are often decided by mistakes, and I like this factor (avoiding mistakes) that one of my favorite blogs talks about a lot. I don't like giving this many points (-3.5), but will take Green Bay.