Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 3/30/11

Our streak is over (the Penguins couldn't hold the Flyers off after an early lead) -- but we're looking to stay hot with a spring training play.  

Today, we've taken the Phillies over the Pirates.  The biases: home team and a far superior team.  The baseball regular season is almost ready to start!    

Thursday Free Pick - Pick Six (in a row!) 3/24/11

Our blog is going for six wins in a row today.  During this winning streak, our picks have been in MLB spring training, the NHL, and the NBA.  Today, our free pick of the day is in MLB once again.

I am taking San Fran in an evening game.  They are at home and the line has been pushed down so that they are just slight favorites.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training 3/15/11

I am taking the Mets today.  I like these biases: superior team -- at home -- during spring training.

Also - check out this Final Four Pool; it is run round by round -- and entries for the first round games are due Tuesday (tonight) at midnight.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training Pick & Biases 3/13/11

Today's play of the day is on the San Diego Padres.  This play fits many of the biases I have studied and researched for spring training.  The biases below are based on a real analysis of spring training data that goes back over several years and thousands of spring training games:

• Lean to home teams.  In addition to the regular reasons why home teams might have value -- this bias may be particularly true during spring training because some visiting players may not make a road trip (during meaningless spring training games).  And if that player happens to be a star player, we have value.
• Although some people think that spring training means nothing, there IS a correlation between regular season and spring training results -- so take a look at team "strength."
• Fading the public -- especially taking into account the above biases can add value as well.

Thursday Free Pick 3/10/11

I am going with a pick in MLB today: Pittsburgh at home over Baltimore.  Data suggests that there is value on home teams in spring training.  However, you still have to pay attention to the moneylines and grab value.

The line has been getting pushed down in favor of Pittsburgh -- but I think there is still value on the Pirates. The game is in the evening.

Friday Free Pick - MLB 3/4/11

I like San Diego today in spring training.  A slight dog -- but a superior team.  Even if it IS spring training, I like the value.

Wednesday's Free Pick - MLB 3/2/11

Following the line of thinking yesterday (although Texas lost), I am taking Minny in MLB spring training today.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB & Spring Training 3/1/11

In honor of spring training starting up, today's play of the day is in MLB. Although the games are not "for real" -- I believe that the actual talent is correlated to results -- and that the numbers do mean something. For example, check last year's article out on spring training from one of my friends (flagged San Francisco as a potential winner based on last year's spring training).

We got on the right track with a win in yesterday's free pick. Today, I am taking the Texas Rangers +110 in spring training.