Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/20/11

After a bit of a cold streak, we think the Phillies are going to break out in a big way in game two of their doubleheader.  After a huge year, this team is NOT going to go into the playoffs in a bad way.  Take the Phillies on the runline to reduce the steep odds.  

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/18/11

We are going for three wins in a row today.  Our preferences in the NHL & NBA finals dragged us down a a bit, but we have been red-hot in baseball.  We're going with an unusual pick today.

We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games.  We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today.  The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds.  The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.

Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track.  Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season.  We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.

You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 4/3/11

I am taking Texas today in MLB -- over Boston.  We are looking to stay hot -- going for 4 wins in a row.

Note that during the baseball regular season, a vast majority of the time, I will take underdogs and get PLUS money line odds -- so that winning streaks may be harder to come by.  HOWEVER, the units earned should be good in the long-term.

NHL -- 1/24/11

Had a nice day in the NFL yesterday. Will have some thoughts on the Super Bowl tomorrow.

Tonight, I like the LA Kings in a late game. Public sentiment on the Bruins is giving us some value on the LA Kings. The NHL is a moneyline sport, and we're getting a bit of line value on the change in moneyline odds.

Reflections on 2010

As we get ready for a new year, it's always nice to reflect on the year that is coming to an end.

I thought this article was interesting. It made me think -- and try to analyze where we can find the most value in the sports betting world. I also checked out some stats at Covers.com, another great sports betting website. In particular, I looked at ATS records for teams during 2010 to see if there was any pattern that might emerge.

Here are some observations and notes as we get set for 2011.

• Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
• The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
• In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
• A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
• Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
• The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
• Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
• The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!

Happy New Year!

Cinco de Mayo

It is Cinco de mayo -- and baseball is in full swing. Baseball is one of the best sports for finding contrarian value. I believe that baseball is one of the better sports for professional bettors and syndicates (some call syndicates the "smart money") for a few reasons:

• MLB is still the "National Past-time."
• Although the NFL is hugely popular, there are many more games in the MLB schedule.
• Baseball also seemingly has more randomness to the sport. For instance, NFL champions often go 14-2 (.875) or 13-3 (.813) -- while the best teams in MLB play about .600 ball.
• The point spread is a great equalizer -- as is the moneyline. However, I believe that many sports fans don't understand the moneyline very well -- and instead, count up their wins and losses (and wonder why their bankroll is decreasing).

If we see more interest on the blog, we'll continue to post more information and more selections. Thank you for reading.