Super Bowl 49: Seattle and Under

I haven't been posting as often, but it is SUPER BOWL time!  I like Seattle and the Under in this year's Super Bowl.

• The public is on New England to the tune of almost three out of every four bets.  
• The Patriots have been hot and even with DeflateGate, many think that Belichick's Patriots are just too smart; a step ahead of the rest.  
• As usual, I like value -- and love last year's champs with the point or as a moneyline play.  
• The Patriots hot streak since the first third of the season may represent value.  
• For those interested in a "flyer" -- I would take the Seahawks in a blowout.  Seattle "big" and the under -- can be parlayed.  

Some analysis I like:

• From the Sporting News: The "Linemakers" columns states that the sharps are on Seattle and the Under.
• Sports psychology angle I like because they offer a different edge -- are on Seattle.
• If you are in a Square Pool, here are some interesting probabilities.  

Super Bowl Pool

I love pools -- so check this out: Square Pool Odds -- by quarter!  Hope I get that 0, 3 or 4!

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/01/27/2014-super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter/

I will have my Super Bowl picks up in a few days.  I can tell you that I am on the under!  

Super Bowl 47

The big game is approaching, and I will be on the San Francisco 49ers.  Some analysts point to the Ravens' momentum, but I don't see that besides a few big wins in the playoffs.  Anything can happen in a small sample size, but I believe we'll see a reversion to the mean -- and see a blowout win for the 49ers.

San Francisco has been consistently good this season, and I believe we may see a blowout win like we used to see in the 80's and 90's.  Here are some books I have helped to write.

2012 Super Bowl (Patriots - Giants)

My free play is on New England to cover the spread against the Giants.  I especially love this if you can get NE -2.5.  The key 3 number takes some excess value out of the picture, but I still love NE -3.  The Giants have come on strong -- but are less consistent than the Patriots.  I would take Brady over Eli Manning any day...

Here is some good coverage of the Super Bowl:

1. SportsInsights' Super Bowl blog summary.  I read all of the links in this post:   http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/02/weekend-sports-update-super-bowl/
2. Who Will Win: I love these sports psychology angles for a different edge.
3. Covers' Super Bowl coverage.

A Wealth of Super Bowl Betting Info & Free Pick 2/6/11

Here is some useful information I have gathered on the Super Bowl.  FWIW, I like the Steelers -- and will lean to the Under.  Actually, with the over/under being pushed up (now up to 45 at most books), I like the Under even more now.  Here are some links I have looked at:

• I love the coverage by Covers.com.  Check this out, their Super Bowl "infographs", or this, on match-ups, etc.  
• Here's a list of SportsInsights' goodies, articles, summary of systems, etc.  Overall, they lean to the Steelers.  They show betting to be evenly split -- with the line slowly moving towards Green Bay.  
• For big games in the playoffs, I like this site: Who Will Win the Big Game, which is often quoted by the New York Times.  They use some different angles including sports psychology to make some interesting picks -- and have done well.  They sometimes pick underdogs, as they do this year, going with the Steelers -- and have compiled a 20-10 record on their book's blog (including picking the Saints last year).

Some observations:

• Betting is split about 50/50 on this one, but with the line edging slightly to GB.  The Super Bowl is a different animal, but "bigger money" seems to be slightly on GB.
• I believe that "hot money" is following GB, who had the blowout win over Atlanta in the playoffs.  Numbers show that recent performance may not necessarily help ATS.  If anything, it could lead to value on Pittsburgh.
• Some people note that Pittsburgh has the better record, and is the #2 seed vs. the Packers # 6 seed.
• Based on all of the factors I have studied, I believe that there is good value on Pittsburgh.  I would actually favor the Steelers by a few points, so getting Pitts +3 is solid value.
• BTW - based on some of these stats, I will also take a chance at some other props with Pitts winning big.

I hope this wealth of information brings us Super Bowl riches as well.  

Super Bowl Opening Line Info

The Super Bowl won't be played for almost two weeks, but betting has already started on the Packers-Steelers match-up. And, betting has already been volatile.

The line opened near pick'em -- oddsmakers leaning the odds to Green Bay slightly. The line then moved all the way up to GB -2, up to -3 -- before settling at GB -2.5. I haven't decided for sure which way I will go for the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh seems better in many statistical categories, but Green Bay performed better against quality opponents.

Please check out these two articles for more information on the line movement:

• SportsInsights Super Bowl Opening Line Report
• Covers Super Bowl Opening Line Report