SportsInsights Research - College Football

SportsInsights shows that contrarian methods can work as a standalone method to add value to handicapping.

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/ncaa-football/bet-against-public/2010-11-season-review.aspx

Monday Free Pick - MLB 5/30/11

Today, we are taking the Reds with Woods on the mound.  The Reds have been in a bit of a slump, and public sentiment is on the visiting Brewers.  We like the value on Cincy at home, with one of their good, young pitchers on the mound.  - jc & cb

WSJ, SportsInsights & Value

I like how the Wall Street Journal has been picking up on applying contrarian methods to the sports betting world.  They just came out with this article using SportsInsights' research on March Madness:

Fabrizio examined the final betting lines of every Division I college basketball game played in March or April since 2004 and monitored the bets taken by six popular online bookmakers. He determined when one team is favored by at least 16 points and receives more than 60% of the bets, the underdog covers the spread 56.5% of the time. The results are strikingly similar to those of another study Fabrizio performed in December, which examined the benefits of the contrarian investing technique to betting on NFL games. 

Please click here for the link to the article.

These contrarian sports investing methods often result in "ugly plays" (large underdogs!) -- but the data shows that there is value in applying contrarian methods not only to stocks -- but also to sports betting.  The typical sports bettor feels "bad" (and stupid) when the the ugly play gets blown out (which happens regularly) -- but more often than not, the point spread is able to help the "ugly pick" squeak by with a win ATS (against the spread).

Sunday Free Pick 3/6/11

In MLB Spring Training -- I like Houston at home -- getting some nice line value vs. the big, bad, Yankees. Just a reminder that although I DO like some of the strong teams to "rise" -- I always stress value.

Contrarian value is a key to lots of things!

Saturday Free Pick - NCAA Hoops 2/26/11

Today's play of the day is on the Georgetown-Syracuse game.  Public perception is on the Orangemen, because they have been hot -- while the Georgetown Hoyas have been struggling just a bit recently.  The game is receiving a lot of attention and I believe that there is at least a few points worth of line value in this game.  

Georgetown boasts one of the toughest schedules this season -- and I think that they will bounce back and take this game at home.  Again, this is a numbers game, but I like the contrarian approach in sports betting -- because it often yields decent value in the long-term.  Georgetown -1 currently, and watching the line, hoping for pick'em.  

Sportsinsights Highlights

Thanks for visiting my blog.  I post free picks -- in a sort of "play of the day" format -- and have been doing decently.  I also post articles related to sports betting from time to time.  Today, I wanted to highlight one of my favorite sports betting websites (Sportsinsights.com), especially because their blog helped me to pick up two units last night.  (The big NBA games: Boston-Chicago; Nuggets)

Some of my favorite sports-related links are at the bottom of this blog.  (My blog reading list is posted on the right-hand-side.)  Sportsinsights is my favorite site because I believe they offer a "real edge" in the sports gambling arena.  They collect and analyze betting lines from several real offshore sportsbooks.  More importantly, they have access to betting percentages that can be used to "poll" public sentiment and get an idea where contrarian line value might exist.

I have known the guys at Sportsinsights for many years -- and think they are stand-up guys.  Full disclosure: I have even done some research with Sportsinsights data and collaborated on their series of books.  I have performed solid academic research and have shown that a contrarian approach to sports betting provides an edge (at a statistically significant level).  Their "square plays" and "best bets" perform decently and are "true" pre-published results.

Unfortunately, even Sportsinsights does not claim to have some magic formula.  Many of their approaches are in the 53%-56% level.  However, I would rather take a small -- but real -- edge, than have my head in the clouds...  

I DO try to improve results with other handicapping methods -- but that's for another blog post.

Tuesday, 1/25/11 Free Pick - NCAA Hoops

In today's sports betting action, I like a play in college basketball. The Seton Hall-Syracuse game is a big game, with visiting Seton hall getting double-digit points. Public sentiment is on Syracuse, so there is contrarian value on the visitors plus the big points. Based on research I have done, it appears that currently: visitors are undervalued - compared to home teams in NCAA Hoops, at least against the spread.

CBS & "60 Minutes" on Sports Betting & Billy Walters

"Sports gambling" and "sports betting" - have always had a "dark side" associated to it. Over recent years, however, there have been press mentions about:

• "sports investing" (contrarian value) in the sports betting arena -- as well as
• a few professional gamblers and/or syndicates that win over the long term.

Many sports fans place occasional small and casual bets on sporting events. As in financial trading and many other professions, the vast majority of people end up losing money -- but a small minority have been successful. Our approaches (contrarian methods combined from multiple analytical factors) have proven to add value to handicapping methods. In the link below, CBS and 60 Minutes have a segment on Billy Walters, one of the most successful sports bettors ever. The full link is below the excerpt:

(CBS) When it comes to gambling, everybody knows the house has the advantage. But there are some high rollers who consistently win, and it's hard to find anyone better at winning than Billy Walters.

He bets on football and basketball, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and has been so successful that many Las Vegas bookmakers are afraid to even take his bets.

Walters has been almost as elusive as Howard Hughes, avoiding publicity, reluctant to reveal his secrets.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/13/60minutes/main7243443.shtml?tag=currentVideoInfo;segmentTitle

2011 BCS Championship

I like Oregon for a few reasons. Attached are some links that I like...

• Based on some book's research on sports psychology. Their results have been good. http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-will-win-college-football.html
• Also, they got a press mention:
• http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6162234/who_will_win_the_bcs_championship_1.html?cat=14
• The betting public generally favors Auburn -- so I like going the other way for value.
• Line movement, combined with public sentiment seems to indicate that "syndicates" are on Oregon.

Media and the Sports Marketplace

The media seems to be catching on to sports betting and sports gambling as a real financial marketplace. Check out this Wall Street Journal article on contrarian methods applied to sports betting -- and in particular, the NFL sports marketplace.

The Wall St Journal article is called: "A Contrarian's Guide to Football Betting."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704774604576035652248983350.html?mod=ITP_personaljournal_3

Football Results and Book's Research

The methods described in my books have had a great start to the football season, with college football hitting at more than a 60% rate, and the NFL currently close to 60%. Long-term results are not this good, but my research has shown that there is a definite edge to contrarian approaches in sports gambling.

In essence, I try to maximize value by studying public sentiment, getting clues from the media (newspapers, radio, television), and studying line movement.

Check out the college football research and approaches, which have been particularly hot.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1609700066?ie=UTF8&tag=sportsinves03-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1609700066

My article on Contrarian Sports Investing

Here is an excerpt from an article I helped put together with some analysts at SportsInsights.

Contrarian Methods

How can we capture the inherent returns of the sports market? One method is to use a contrarian approach and bet against the public to capture value. This is one reason why we collect and study "betting percentages" from several major online sports books. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of the market action - and carve out the performance of the "general public."

For the complete text of the article, please click here:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Getting-an-Edge-in-Sports-Betting:-Contrarian-Sports-Investing&id=5137666

Cinco de Mayo

It is Cinco de mayo -- and baseball is in full swing. Baseball is one of the best sports for finding contrarian value. I believe that baseball is one of the better sports for professional bettors and syndicates (some call syndicates the "smart money") for a few reasons:

• MLB is still the "National Past-time."
• Although the NFL is hugely popular, there are many more games in the MLB schedule.
• Baseball also seemingly has more randomness to the sport. For instance, NFL champions often go 14-2 (.875) or 13-3 (.813) -- while the best teams in MLB play about .600 ball.
• The point spread is a great equalizer -- as is the moneyline. However, I believe that many sports fans don't understand the moneyline very well -- and instead, count up their wins and losses (and wonder why their bankroll is decreasing).

If we see more interest on the blog, we'll continue to post more information and more selections. Thank you for reading.

Super Bowl - Saints

I like the Saints for several reasons. I think that the Saints are actually better than the Colts. The Colts captured a lot of media -- and public -- attention with their run at a perfect season. Although they a few "meaningless" games at the end of the season, many consider them "perfect."

The Saints have put up some monster numbers and are a truly "live dog."

Public sentiment is clearly on the veteran Colts, but there seems to be value on the Saints. In addition, I found this sports psychology angle to be interesting:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/bookreviews/book_granat_and_chin_2010.aspx