Home Field Advantage

This article discusses home field advantage (although not ATS).  My research shows that in some sports, there is an edge for contrarian methods AND home field advantage (like in baseball and college football).  However, in some sports, visitors have the edge ATS (like in the NBA).

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/articles/2011/09/03/in_sports_there_really_is_no_place_like_home/?s_campaign=8315

It’s a big deal. Statistics show that Major League Baseball teams win 54 percent of their home games. The benefit is even higher in other sports, according to the economist who compiled the figures. In the NHL the home teams win 57 percent of the time, in the NFL it’s 58 percent, and in the NBA it’s 62 percent.

What’s so great about being at home?

Tobias J. Moskowitz, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, ran decades of numbers in an effort to explain the well-known phenomenon, and he concluded that the single biggest contributor is - get ready to start booing - officiating bias by umpires and referees, unintentional though it may be.

Sunday Free Pick - NBA 4/17/11

We are looking to get back to our winning ways -- with a pick in the NBA playoffs.  We are taking a rare favorite -- the Celtics -6 -- because it looks like the Celtics are undervalued in this game.

We love the stats at Covers.com -- particularly their ATS records, as well as margin of victory and other key indicators.  Some reasons we love the Celtics over the Knicks (minus the points) today:

• My "simple probabilistic model" shows that the Celtics, at home, should be favored closer to double-digit points in this game. 
• ATS records show that the Knicks outperformed this season -- but came back to earth a bit by the end of the season.
• The betting is fairly split -- which is unusual when a team is favored by this much.  To me, this means that the public is leaning towards the Knicks.
• Since the Carmelo trade the general public -- and deep-pocketed NY fans -- HAS overvalued the Knicks. 

We took the Celtics and gave the 6 points.  

WSJ, SportsInsights & Value

I like how the Wall Street Journal has been picking up on applying contrarian methods to the sports betting world.  They just came out with this article using SportsInsights' research on March Madness:

Fabrizio examined the final betting lines of every Division I college basketball game played in March or April since 2004 and monitored the bets taken by six popular online bookmakers. He determined when one team is favored by at least 16 points and receives more than 60% of the bets, the underdog covers the spread 56.5% of the time. The results are strikingly similar to those of another study Fabrizio performed in December, which examined the benefits of the contrarian investing technique to betting on NFL games. 

Please click here for the link to the article.

These contrarian sports investing methods often result in "ugly plays" (large underdogs!) -- but the data shows that there is value in applying contrarian methods not only to stocks -- but also to sports betting.  The typical sports bettor feels "bad" (and stupid) when the the ugly play gets blown out (which happens regularly) -- but more often than not, the point spread is able to help the "ugly pick" squeak by with a win ATS (against the spread).

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price. 

Moneylines, Point Spreads & Wednesday Free Pick 2/9/11

I often talk about the point spread being "a great equalizer." Teams can "back-door" into a win ATS -- or the game can just be closer-than-expected. Of course, many times, the underdog gets completely thrashed -- but I think of sports betting as a "numbers game" where you try and put the numbers and probabilities on your side.

Yesterday's pick, So. Ill +16, happened to be an outright winner -- and some back-of-the-envelope analysis has shown that the point spreads and moneyline odds are fairly efficient. That means that if you you want to diversify, you can sometimes split a small portion of your bet and do some moneyline action in addition to the point spread.

In today's sports activity, I like a play in the NHL: Phoenix Coyotes (visiting Dallas) at +130.

Thu Free Pick 1/27/11 - NBA

Early in the season, Miami was overvalued.  Then, their slow start led to some value on the Heat.  I feel like the market has them about right -- but think the Knicks are slightly overvalued now.  I do not think that at season's end, they will be amongst the league leaders ATS as they are now on Covers.com's NBA statistics.  I like Miami -3, visiting the Knicks.

Wed, 1/26/11, Free Pick - NCAAB

After last night's win ATS (against the spread) on a "visiting dog getting double-digit points" -- we're going "back to the well" in college hoops again. This time, we'll take George Washington getting +13 points vs. Xavier.